The Blogs: How Hamas Manipulates Gaza Casualty Figures

In the war with Hamas, casualty statistics have become a powerful weapon in the battle for international public opinion. The so-called Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) — an arm of Hamas — has consistently released statistics claiming high civilian casualties, particularly among women and children, which international media and organizations have largely accepted without scrutiny. Two reports from the Henry Jackson Society (HJS) have now systematically analyzed these claims, revealing major inconsistencies and methodological shortcomings, and demonstrating that they serve as vehicles for Hamas’ dangerous propaganda.

The Henry Jackson Society recently produced two reports examining Hamas’ casualty claims:

“Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza” by Andrew Fox (December 2024)
“Hamas Casualty Reports are a Tangle of Technical Problems” by Professors Lewi Stone and Gregory Rose (April 2025)

Together, these reports provide compelling evidence that Hamas has systematically manipulated casualty data throughout the conflict that began on October 7, 2023:

“Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza” by Andrew Fox (December 2024 Report)

The first report by Andrew Fox presented several revelations about Hamas’ casualty reporting practices.

Men Listed as Women to Inflate Female Fatalities

“Analysis of Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) fatality data reveals repeated instances of men being misclassified as women. Examples include individuals with male first names (e.g. Mohammed) being recorded as female. This misclassification contributes to the narrative that civilian populations, particularly women and children, bear the brunt of the conflict, potentially influencing international sentiment and media coverage.”

Fox’s analysis discovered numerous instances where men were misclassified as women in the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) data. This included individuals with unmistakably male first names, such as Mohammed, being recorded as female. This misclassification artificially inflated the number of female casualties, supporting Hamas’ narrative that Israel was disproportionately targeting women. According to Fox’s analysis, these gender misclassifications represented a deliberate pattern rather than occasional errors.

Adults Registered as Children

“Significant discrepancies have been uncovered where adult fatalities are reclassified as children. For instance, an individual aged 22 was listed as a four year-old and a 31-year-old was listed as an infant. Such distortions inflate the number of child casualties, which is emotionally impactful and heavily emphasised in global reporting. These misrepresentations suggest a deliberate attempt to frame the conflict as disproportionately affecting children, undermining the credibility of the fatality data.”

The December report identified significant age discrepancies where adult fatalities were reclassified as children. Specific examples included:

A 22-year-old man was listed as a 4-year-old child
A 31-year-old man was recorded as a 1-year-old infant

These distortions inflated the number of reported child casualties, which is emotionally impactful and has been heavily emphasized in global reporting. Fox’s report estimated that hundreds of such age misclassifications existed in the data.

Flawed Data Collection Methods

Fox identified three problematic reporting methodologies used by Hamas:

Hospital records registered by “medical staff”
Unknown “information sources,” including media and social media reports
Public submission of information or “family notification” through online forms

The report highlighted how the MoH network connecting hospitals collapsed in November 2023, leading to thousands of recording errors. Fox wrote: “Where a date of birth has been missing, that death has been recorded and therefore reported as a child.” This practice resulted in systematic overreporting of child casualties.

Counting of Natural Deaths in War Casualty Figures

“Despite the typical annual rate of 5,000 natural deaths in Gaza, the fatality data provides no accounting for such figures. This omission raises concerns that natural deaths, as well as deaths caused by internal violence or misfired rockets, are being included in war-related fatality counts. Instances of cancer patients, previously registered for treatment, appearing on war fatality lists further support this assertion. Such practices inflate the reported civilian death toll, complicating accurate assessments of the conflict’s impact.”

The December report noted that despite the typical annual rate of 5,000 natural deaths in Gaza, the Hamas-run Health Ministry provided no accounting for such figures in their war casualty reports. Fox’s investigation uncovered specific examples of cancer patients who appeared on MoH fatality lists despite having died from their illness rather than war-related trauma. For instance, at least 43 patients from the Gaza Oncology Center appeared on the casualty lists, even though they were registered for cancer treatment after they had allegedly been killed.

Media Underreporting of Combatant Deaths

“Analysis of media coverage reveals that only 3% of news stories reference combatant deaths, with outlets like the BBC, CNN, Reuters and The New York Times primarily relying on Gaza Ministry of Health figures. These figures often lack verification and fail to distinguish between combatants and civilians. The omission creates a skewed narrative that portrays all casualties as civilian, thus shaping public opinion and international policy based on incomplete or manipulated data. For example, more than 17,000 Hamas combatants are estimated to have been killed, yet these figures are largely excluded from global reporting.”

Fox’s team analyzed 1,378 articles from eight major English-language news outlets (The New York Times, Washington Post, The Guardian, CNN, BBC, Reuters, Associated Press, and Australian ABC) published between February and May 2024. They found:

98% of articles cited Gaza Ministry of Health figures
Only 5% mentioned Israeli authority figures on casualties
84% failed to distinguish between combatant and civilian deaths
Only 3% of news stories referenced combatant deaths
Fewer than 1 in 50 articles (2%) mentioned that MoH figures were unverifiable

Furthermore, Fox’s team identified disproportionate deaths of fighting-age men: “Data analysis indicates that proportionally most fatalities are men aged 15–45, contradicting claims that civilian populations are being disproportionately targeted. This age demographic aligns closely with the expected profile of combatants, further supported by spikes in deaths of men reported by family sources rather than hospitals. This evidence suggests that many fatalities classified as civilian may be combatants, a distinction omitted from official reporting.”

Overall, the report demonstrated how uncritical media reporting amplified Hamas’ narrative while minimizing or ignoring Israeli perspectives on casualties.

“Hamas Casualty Reports are a Tangle of Technical Problems” by Lewi Stone and Gregory Rose (April 2025 Report)

The second report by Professors Stone and Rose provide further statistical analysis and evidence of data manipulation:

The 70% Women and Children Claim is “Demonstrably False”

“The most recent (March 2025) cumulative list of 50,021 identified casualties showed that the proportion of women and children’s mortalities (W&C) over the whole war was 51% (25,401 / 50,021). (Across 2024, women and children comprised 40% to 43% of the injured.) Approximately 45% of all Gazan deaths were legal fighting-age males (18 ≤ M ≤ 59) but a significant additional component as child casualties were male underage combatants. These statistics signal that, over the whole war across all Gaza, the IDF sought to avoid civilians and that harm to civilians was far less than Hamas alleged publicly.”

Stone and Rose’s analysis conclusively showed that Hamas’ repeated claim that 70% of Gaza casualties were women and children was “demonstrably false.” According to their analysis of the Hamas Ministry of Health’s own hospital data, women and children actually constituted 51% of total deaths since the conflict began.

The researchers found that by March 2025, the cumulative numbers showed 25,401 women and children out of 50,021 total identified casualties (51%), not the 70% repeatedly claimed in Hamas press releases. This finding directly contradicted statements by Hamas officials like Moatasem Salah, Director of the MoH Emergency Centre, who continued to claim the 70% figure as late as June 2024.

Demographic Evidence of Targeted Operations

“Empirical evidence across cross-sections of the data provided by the MoH itself showed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took measures that tried to avoid harming women and children. To illustrate: in Khan Yunis across January-May 2024, MoH data showed that women and children combined (who comprise 75% of the Gazan population) comprised 34% of all deaths; that is, less than half of the 70% Hamas claimed.”

Stone and Rose analyzed casualty demographics in specific locations during particular time periods. For instance, in Khan Yunis between January and May 2024:

Adult males comprised 65.5% of the 2,154 total identified casualties
Women and children accounted for 34.5% of casualties
This was despite women and children representing 75% of the population

The researchers presented detailed histograms showing the stark difference between male and female casualties across age groups. For example, in the Khan Yunis data, there were 1,411 adult male casualties compared to just 277 adult women – a ratio of more than 5:1.

This pattern was consistent with targeted military operations against combatants rather than indiscriminate attacks on civilians. As the researchers noted, “If the IDF operations were causing indiscriminate deaths rather than targeting combatants, then one would expect the casualties to be distributed according to the population’s natural demography.“

Names Mysteriously Removed from Casualty Lists

The April 2025 report identified approximately 3,400 names that were quietly removed from the MoH casualty lists in March 2025 without any notice or explanation. The removed names included at least 1,000 children previously listed as casualties.

More specifically, Stone and Rose documented that after the August 2024 list was published, the MoH removed 1,792 entries from among those fully identified without acknowledging these removals. The removed individuals comprised: 786 children, 453 women, 366 men and 187 elderly. By March 2025, the total number of removed names had reached 6,394. This pattern of additions and removals raised serious questions about the reliability of the entire reporting system.

Systematic Age Manipulation to Inflate Child Casualties

Stone and Rose discovered a pattern of ages being revised downward between different casualty lists released by the Gaza Ministry of Health over time. By comparing individuals across different lists, they found:

Over 100 people whose ages had been reduced by one year between publications
54.3% of those listed as 18-year-olds in February 2024 (144 out of 265) were suddenly listed as 17-year-olds in August 2024
70% of individuals listed as 19-year-olds in April were recorded as 18-year-olds in the June list

This systematic reduction of ages artificially increased the number of reported “child” casualties (those under 18), serving to enhance anti-Israel messaging.

Natural Deaths and Misattribution

In April 2025, the Ministry’s Director of Information admitted that “a lot of people” listed as war casualties had actually died of natural causes. This contradicted previous denials from the same ministry.

The researchers calculated that over the course of the war (through April 2025), approximately 9,000 Gazans would have died of natural causes based on pre-war mortality rates. However, these deaths were not reported separately. Instead, as Fox identified in his December 2024 report too (see above), Stone and Rose also conclude that many appear to have been included in the overall war casualty figures.

Contradictions Between Hamas Agencies’ Reporting

“Smoothly packaged and widely propagated Hamas Government Media Office (GMO) information press releases that claimed 70% women and children casualties were in contradiction with the more reliable Ministry of Health raw datasets. GMO data showed that children’s deaths were more numerous than adult women or men, while MoH data showed that men were most numerous. Nevertheless, MoH ‘dashboard’ infographics and public statements were demonstrably false when compared to its own datasets; for example, its repeated publishing of a 70% women and children casualty rate that was inconsistent with its detailed hospital sourced datasets. These various contradictions enabled Hamas to argue various different narratives when convenient.”

Altogether, both reports highlighted significant discrepancies between the figures released by two Hamas entities: the Ministry of Health (MoH) and the Government Media Office (GMO).

Stone and Rose provided a detailed analysis of how the GMO manipulated MoH data. For example, on August 31, 2024:

MoH reported 34,344 identified casualties: 11,355 children, 7,377 women, and 15,612 men
GMO reported 40,738 total casualties: 16,673 children, 11,269 women, and 12,749 men

The researchers noted that the GMO “increased child casualties from 11,355 to 16,673” while reducing “male casualties by 2,863.” As they explained, “How can the total number of adult male casualties proclaimed by the GMO be less than the number of hospital-identified male casualties?” This contradiction revealed clear statistical manipulation.

The IDF’s Casualties Claims and Hamas Combatant Deaths

Both reports discussed the Israel Defense Forces’ claim of killing approximately 17,000-20,000 Hamas and affiliated combatants in Gaza by March 2025. This figure is rarely mentioned in international media coverage.

Fox’s report highlighted how Hamas has historically concealed combatant deaths. During the 2014 Gaza War, Hamas’ Interior Ministry posted a message on Facebook warning Palestinians “not to disclose details about terrorist operatives (those killed in the ‘Resistance’) killed during Operation Protective Edge.”

Stone and Rose documented specific examples of Hamas combatants and leaders who were known to have been killed but did not appear in the MoH lists of named casualties. These included Imad Abbas, Ahmed Webbe, Hussain Fayyad, Rafat abu Halal, and Subhi Ferwana. They also found that family members of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar were initially included in casualty lists but were later removed.

Recent Data: Shifting Patterns in 2025

“Recent preponderance of male casualities: MoH March 2025 data showed that, among 11,224 new casualties in the seven months since 7 October 2024, there were 8,565 males (76.3%) and 2,659 females (23.7%). Among these new casualties, 58% were legal combat-age males and an additional unknown but significant proportion were underage combatant males. The reduced proportion of casualties that were women and children (down to 38%) over the most recent 7 months of data-reportage indicates improvement over time of Israeli efforts to avoid Gazan civilian harm. The new data raises questions about whether a large number of males previously went unreported, or whether Hamas had simply over-represented women and children casualties in the past.”

The April 2025 report analyzed the most recent casualty list (March 2025), revealing that new additions to the list showed dramatically different demographics than previously claimed. This pattern directly contradicted Hamas’ long-maintained narrative that women and children were the primary victims of Israeli operations.

Media Complicity and Impact on International Opinion

Both reports emphasized how international media organizations uncritically amplified Hamas’ casualty claims. Fox’s analysis of 1,378 news articles showed that 98% cited Gaza Ministry of Health figures while only 5% mentioned Israeli authority figures on casualties.

Stone and Rose observed that the uncritical acceptance of Hamas figures extended beyond media to include international organizations like the United Nations. These reports influenced global public opinion, diplomatic responses, and even legal actions against Israel.

As Fox noted in his December report: “It’s still a tragedy, no matter how many civilians have died, but I think it’s been remiss of the world’s media to try and take these figures as gospel when plainly there are combatants dying.“

Conclusion: The Ramifications of Casualty Manipulation

The two comprehensive reports published by the Henry Jackson Society provide compelling and meticulously documented evidence that Hamas has systematically manipulated casualty data as a central component of its asymmetric warfare strategy against Israel. Through deliberate age distortions, gender misclassifications, the calculated omission of combatant deaths, and the inclusion of natural and unrelated fatalities in war casualty figures, Hamas has constructed a distorted narrative aimed at isolating Israel diplomatically and undermining its legitimacy in defending its population.

The implications of these revelations reach far beyond the immediate context of the current conflict. When international organizations, legal tribunals, and global media outlets uncritically amplify casualty figures supplied by belligerents with a clear strategic interest in misrepresentation, they become unwitting conduits of a broader disinformation campaign. The International Criminal Court’s investigations into Israel, UN resolutions denouncing its operations, and mass protests on university campuses worldwide have all been influenced by a casualty narrative that is obviously fundamentally flawed and statistically untenable.

For those of us committed to combating antisemitism and defending Israel’s right to self-defense, these findings underscore how statistical manipulation has become a powerful weapon in the modern information battlefield. The misrepresentation of casualty statistics does not merely skew public perception; it actively influences decision-making, legal judgments, and geopolitical alignments.

In light of this, media outlets, human rights organizations, and policymakers must adopt a far more critical and disciplined approach when reporting or relying on casualty figures from conflict zones — especially when those figures originate from terrorist organizations like Hamas, a group with a well-documented history of manipulating data to serve terrorist and ideological ends. This demands full access to original, time-stamped records; clear, independently verifiable distinctions between civilians and combatants; serious scrutiny of demographic claims that defy historical or statistical plausibility; and close examination of the methods by which such data is collected, categorized, and disseminated by Hamas and its affiliates.

By exposing both the calculated methods and the devastating consequences of Hamas’s statistical deceptions, the reports by the Henry Jackson Society offer a vital service — not only to policymakers, scholars, and analysts, but to all who refuse to surrender truth to the machinery of propaganda. In an age where antisemitic disinformation spreads with alarming speed, a rigorous, evidence-based approach is essential to push back against the tide of distortion and to foster a public discourse rooted in truth and reality. Reclaiming the public sphere demands the primacy of facts over falsehood, a renewed commitment to moral responsibility and scientific integrity, and an unyielding insistence that truth — not terror — must shape the world’s understanding of this conflict.