How Kurds Offer Stability in the Middle East Amid Weakening Authoritarian Rulers

The Middle East is undergoing a profound geopolitical transformation. Authoritarian regimes, long sustained by religious extremism, ethnic sectarianism, and political repression, are facing increasing internal and external challenges. Some have collapsed, while others show clear signs of weakening. As the regime represented by Iran and its axis of resistance falters and its existing regional order breaks down, the Turkish and Qatari regimes—both embracing Muslim Brotherhood ideology—seek to replace Iranian domination by spreading Sunni Islam to revive a neo-Ottoman order, challenging the Jewish state and aiming to eradicate the secular Kurdish model. In response to these competing ambitions, two key models offer viable paths toward a new regional framework: the bottom-up, people-centered Kurdish model and the top-down, state-centered Israeli model exemplified by the Abraham Accords. Both emphasize mutual respect for cultural diversity, peaceful coexistence, and intercommunal cooperation. These models demonstrate significant potential to promote stability and peace, standing in stark contrast to the authoritarian Iranian and Turkish fragmentation that has long plagued Middle Eastern states.

The Kurdish YPJ female fighters in Rojava. This image is used with permission from its owner, Ronahi TV.

Looking ahead, Kurdish regions in Iran—amid growing unrest and opposition to the Islamic Republic—could play a transformative role. Inspired by Kurdish experiences in Iraq and Syria, Kurdish forces in Iran may help dismantle the repressive legacy of the ruling regime and contribute to the formation of a secular and democratic Iranian society. Their ability to unify diverse communities under a vision of coexistence and moderation positions them as potential anchors for a peaceful Middle East. However, this vision faces serious challenges. While Kurdish regions in Iraq and Syria have made notable progress, they are not free from the influence of authoritarian neighboring regimes. Similarly, the Kurdish region in Iran remains vulnerable both to hostile agendas and provocations from these regimes and to the competing interests of global and regional powers seeking to shape the Middle East’s future.

Authoritarianism in the Middle East

To grasp the Kurds’ potential as stabilizing actors, one must understand the recent political history of the region. Middle Eastern authoritarian regimes have maintained power through militarism, sectarianism, and violent repression. Baathist regimes in Iraq and Syria rose to power through mid-20th-century military coups. Syria’s Assad family has repressed ethnic and religious minorities—including Sunni Arabs and Kurds—while exporting instability to Lebanon and supporting pan-Arab militancy against Israel. Saddam Hussein’s Iraq engaged in regional aggression and committed horrific crimes against its citizens, including the genocidal Anfal campaign against the Kurds in the 1980s, which featured chemical attacks that remain among the region’s darkest atrocities.

The 1979 Iranian Revolution promised liberation from the Shah’s authoritarianism but resulted in a similarly despotic Islamic Republic. Rooted in pan-Islamist ideology, the regime has fueled regional sectarian conflict by backing proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza. Domestically, the government violently suppresses Kurdish demands for cultural and political rights through executions, arrests, and torture, branding these aspirations as heretical to justify its repression. In 2002, Turkey’s Erdoğan, initially promising reform and EU integration, has over time dismantled democratic institutions, silenced dissent, and supported Islamist militias linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS, while launching military campaigns against Kurds both inside and outside Turkey’s borders.

Despite ideological differences, these regimes share core elements: authoritarianism, expansionism, proxy warfare, and anti-Kurdish, antisemitic, and anti-Western rhetoric. Their common methods include suppressing dissent, persecuting minoritized communities domestically, and exploiting religion for power and domination. Against this backdrop, Kurdish groups—rooted in pluralism, secularism, and diversity—offer an alternative vision. As authoritarian regimes weaken, Kurdish regions in Iraq and Syria have emerged as models of inclusive governance and stability. Notably, Kurdish actors in these states have chosen not to pursue independence despite having the opportunity, countering accusations of separatism by ruling regimes. Kurdish forces in Iran have the potential to play a similar role, assisting in the transition from repression to democracy that embraces all of Iran’s diverse communities.

A fighter of the Iranian Kurdish Komala movement. This image is used with permission from its owner, Jonathan Spyer.

Israel’s Objectives and the New Middle East

Claims from Turkey in particular that Israel seeks regional hegemony, especially since the atrocities of October 7, are unfounded and misleading. Based on years of observation and interaction with Israeli experts, Israel’s primary goal is defending its security and countering the expansionist ambitions of Iran and Turkey—two powers that threaten Israeli security, support Hamas’s goal to eradicate Israel, and extend their influence through proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Yemen, and beyond.

The image was taken in Idlib, Syria.
This image is used with permission from its owner, Ronya Othmann.

Since 1948, Israel has faced continuous conflict but has persistently sought peace, making territorial concessions to achieve lasting agreements, including returning Sinai to Egypt (1979), recognizing Jordanian borders (1994), the Oslo Accords (1993–95), and the 2022 maritime border resolution with Lebanon. The 2020 Abraham Accords marked a historic breakthrough in Arab-Israeli normalization. However, as Arab hostility waned, Iran expanded its regional proxy network, threatening Israel’s existence—a central objective since Ayatollah Khomeini’s rise in 1979. Iran’s support for Hamas, including military aid, directly facilitated the atrocities of October 7, which many view as genocidal. Israel’s military response aimed to neutralize these threats. Without Iran’s ideological and institutionalized hostility, the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza and the Israel-Iran escalation might have been avoided. In other words, it was Iran that dispatched its proxies to Israel’s doorstep, not Israel expanding its influence to Iran’s doorstep. Therefore, allegations from Turkish officials that Israel seeks regional hegemony are baseless. Israel’s focus remains on defense and peace, despite its global recognition and economic strength. Many believe that curtailing Iranian ambitions will lead to peace. Yet, Turkey under Erdoğan has become a new epicenter of anti-Israel hostility. Erdoğan’s regime and Turkish media often deploy antisemitic rhetoric, portraying Israel as a hegemonic threat—reflecting Turkey’s neo-Ottoman ambitions to dominate the Middle East and lead the Muslim world. Turkey’s military and proxies are active across fragile states, campaigning for the “liberation” of Jerusalem and posing a future threat to Israel.

The Kurdish Context and Challenges

The Kurds have been both victims of regional authoritarianism and agents of stability. In Iraq, Kurdish victimhood and resistance date back to the country’s independence in 1932. Under Melle Mustafa Barzani, Kurds endured repression by successive Arab nationalist regimes. The 1975 Algiers Agreement precipitated Saddam Hussein’s brutal Anfal campaigns, including the 1988 Halabja chemical attack that killed thousands of Kurdish civilians. Kurdish forces played a crucial role in helping topple Saddam in 2003. Instead of declaring independence, Kurdish leaders embraced federalism, transforming the Kurdistan Region into a stable area for all Iraqis that also hosted US bases, attracted investment, and sheltered refugees amid Iraq’s chaos. In Syria, Kurds faced systemic discrimination, denial of citizenship, and violent crackdowns, including deadly events in Amuda (1960) and Qamishli (2004). Following the 2011 civil war, Kurdish forces organized rapidly, defeating al-Qaeda affiliates and ISIS at substantial cost while establishing an inclusive autonomous administration for Kurds, Arabs, and Christians. Again, the Kurds did not declare independence but turned the Kurdish region into relatively stable zones that enabled US-led operations, exemplifying pluralism and grassroots governance amid Syria’s wider chaos.

The SDF fighters in Rojava. This image is used with permission from its owner, Ronahi TV.

Since 1979, the Iranian regime has repressed Kurdish identity and culture, branding Kurdish parties as “Satanic,” executing Kurdish civilians and activists, and targeting refugee camps with missile strikes where many lived in exile in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Yet, Kurdish forces in Iran played a central role in the 2022 Jin, Jiyan, Azadi uprising sparked by the murder of Kurdish woman Jina Amini. Iranian Kurds now face a historic moment; a unified front, supported by credible international actors like the US and Israel, could help end the clerical regime. However, internal divisions or lack of external support could risk renewed anti-Kurdish repression by the mullah regime, which has already arrested over 200 Kurdish youths in the Kurdish region in the last 10 days. The regime’s survival is increasingly untenable amid economic and political crises, with its fall potentially mirroring Assad’s in Syria, where Kurdish forces could be pivotal in shaping the transition. The Kurdish vision in Iran aligns with the aspirations of younger Iranians seeking change. Kurdish political movements emphasize peaceful coexistence, gender equality, and cultural rights, offering a secular and democratic future. In contrast, monarchist Reza Pahlavi and his National Council of Iran remain marginalized, failing to address ethnic minority grievances or effectively engage with Iran’s diverse marginalized groups. This disconnect alienates minoritized Iranian peoples and fuels fears of a return to authoritarianism, highlighting a lack of understanding of Iran’s complex diversity.

Turkey’s Double Game and its Implications

Turkey’s Kurdish question impacts Kurds throughout the Middle East. The Turkish regime pursues a dual strategy: suppressing Kurdish identity domestically through cultural erasure while portraying Kurdish actors abroad as anti-Western and anti-Israel to isolate and delegitimize their claims. Central to this strategy is the manipulation of Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned PKK leader held in solitary confinement for over 25 years. Despite Öcalan’s peace efforts since 1993, the Turkish state exploits his influence to crush Kurdish political claims, divide the Kurdish community, and block Kurdish alliances with regional and international actors.

In October 2024, Turkey launched the “Terror-Free Turkey” initiative, exploiting Öcalan’s image to obstruct Kurdish ties with Israel in favor of Turkish dominance. Turkish officials, such as Erdoğan’s chief adviser Mehmet Uçum, imply accusations against Kurds of betrayal for seeking Western or Israeli alliances, invoking a narrative of Kurdish–Turkish “brotherhood” against Western imperialism and dismissing Kurdish self-determination as foreign manipulation. This rhetoric is echoed by Turkish politicians and media, who misrepresent Öcalan as anti-Kurdistan and anti-Israel to erode Kurdish support.

The author captured this image during an excursion with the Jewish community of Kurdistan in Eilat in 2024.

Yet, Kurdish masses on social media platforms view Öcalan as a political hostage and see themselves and their homeland as victims of ongoing Turkish colonialism, arguing that Turkey distorts Öcalan’s views to serve its geopolitical interests. Kurds view Israel as a natural ally, supporting its efforts to counter Turkish and Iranian expansionism, dismantle authoritarian regimes, and promote inclusivity and democratic values. During my research in Jerusalem, I have witnessed daily how Israeli-Kurdish solidarity is evident culturally, with synagogues and streets in Jerusalem and neighboring cities bearing Kurdish names and Kurdish-Jewish heritage thriving openly in Israel. Given this reality, Kurdish opposition to Israel in favor of regimes that ruthlessly suppress them seems both paradoxical and manipulative. The Turkish regime’s anti-Kurdish policies persistently deny Kurdish identity and marginalize legitimate demands for rights and representation.

The author captured this image in Jerusalem’s Nachlaot neighborhood, depicting the synagogue of the Jewish community of Kurdistan.

Kurds and their Future Role in the Middle East

Amid Middle Eastern upheaval, Kurds recognize Israel’s strategic role in reshaping the region and hope these efforts could lead to regime change in Tehran, paving the way for a sustainable solution. They are positioned to fill any ensuing power vacuum with an inclusive and democratic model aligned with the vision of the Abraham Accords. To that end, Kurdish forces should neither remain neutral nor passive amid Iran’s shifting geopolitics; recognizing Israel’s efforts against the regime aligns with their struggle. Their mission requires overcoming internal divisions, fostering intra-community unity, and engaging diplomatically with non-Kurdish Iranian communities. Additionally, they need to distance themselves from the divisive manipulation of Öcalan’s image propagated by the Turkish state. Finally, regional actors must recognize the capacity of the Kurds to serve as peacemakers and agents of stability in Iran should regime change occur. They might provide Kurdish forces with logistical and strategic support to protect them from repression by Tehran’s regime during the transition—a regime that could potentially commit genocide against the Kurds. Supporting Kurdish unity and their vision for a new Iran serves the vital interests of Israel and the West in advocating for a democratic and pluralistic Iran that could bring peace and stability and emerge as a strategic partner of both Israel and the Western world.