How Serious Are Israel’s QME Concerns?

In what might be left of Israel’s former military strategy in the wake of the shocks of October 7th, one salient element has been its QME, Israel’s qualitative military edge.  QME involves having weaponry that is one generation ahead of one’s neighbors’. If Trump is to sell the F-35 fighter jet to Saudi Arabia, does Israel really need to be concerned that it might compromise its QME?

There are certain considerations as to whether Israel ought to be worried.  The first is that Saudi Arabia, while not a member of the Abraham Accords, is not now actively hostile toward Israel.  This is also to say that the Saudis at this point represent no great threat to Israel.  The two countries share a common enemy, Iran.  This alone serves to encourage a closer, more productive relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis under Mohammed bin Salman have conducted what have been reported to be some “under-the-table” understandings with Israel.  The Saudis have been wary of Iran ever since the Yemeni attack on their oil fields, Yemen under the Houthis being a proxy of Iran.  However, being the de facto leader of what is arguably the most influential state in the region, MBS has not been willing to get too far out over his skis when it comes to dealing with Israel openly.  Consistently he has demanded the establishment of a Palestinian state as a prerequisite for his bringing his country into the Abraham Accords.

There are several reasons that, while Israel may publicly oppose the sale, it may quietly accede to it.  The first is a comparison of the capabilities of Israeli to Saudi pilots.  Israeli pilots have far more experience flying this jet than the Saudis, and the proficiency of Saudi pilots isn’t likely to catch up any time soon, if ever.  Secondly, Israel has modified the aircraft in ways that the Saudis might be hard pressed to achieve.  Third, the trajectories of both countries seem to be moving (again) toward more cooperation, this with the nudging of the United States.

One concern of both the Israel and the United States about this sale is the possibility of the F-35’s technology falling into the hands of Chinese and the Russians. Given both these countries’ abilities to steal U.S. proprietary secrets in other ways, a Saudi transfer is not necessarily a deal-killer.

There is no doubt that the sale of the F-35 could represent a challenge to Israel’s QME.  But when one bores down into the arguments, there is less a threat than might appear on the surface.  Would Israel be happier were the sale not to go through? Probably so.  But Israel is wary to oppose Trump initiatives.  Is Israel worried about this sale possibly setting a precedent for sales to other Middle East countries like Qatar and Turkey?  That is surely so.  But if the F-35 deal brings MBS and Israel closer to each other, then the concern about Israel’s QME might take a back seat to arrangements which are far more important to the entire region.

The final consideration is that the present regimes and leaderships may change.  That is a risk that every country must take in these volatile days.  However, tensions between Iran and the other countries in the Middle East outweigh most other concerns, and the stronger those countries which fear and oppose Iran can be made, perhaps the better for everyone involved.