How to predict the weather

Although for 24 hours seven days a week before Hurricane Irma hit Florida the weather forecasters foretold that there was a good chance the hurricane would hit my city Boca Raton, Florida, I knew that there was a good chance that it would not do so. And I was right.

How did I know? And how can people predict the weather? It’s simple. There is a scientific way to do it. It is based on simple statistics, just as all science is based on statistics.

Science has told us – as we observed ourselves – that weather forecasters’ predictions are right only forty percent of the time. This means that they are wrong sixty percent of the time. So, if we listen to the weather person and say just the opposite, we will be giving a weather prediction that will be correct sixty percent of the time.

And there is one more scientific method that will increase our percentage. You noticed of course that while weather forecasters say it will not rain, you look outside your window and see that it is raining. So, if you look out your window while making your sixty percent correct prediction, you will raise your accuracy percentage to seventy percent.

What can be more scientific than that! That’s how I knew.