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How will the mullahs’ regime use nuclear weapons in the future?

Militarism and a step towards the mullahs’ nuclear finale.

Abstract:

The international political scene is witnessing a horrific scenario with the game of the rulers of Iran, in which the “Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist” resumes its controversial nuclear activities step by step in successive sections, and this play, which is being performed in front of the eyes of the world, depicts a dictatorial and evil regime that moves in the political calendar with the aim of achieving the atomic bomb.

Centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran, November 5, 2019. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

The background of the mullahs’ nuclear crisis, along with their announced policies and programs, leaves no room for misunderstanding of this fact for any spectator in the international arena. Meanwhile, the confession of Ali Motahari, the former deputy speaker of the Islamic Republic of Iran, to the regime’s real intention to acquire a nuclear weapon, dispelled doubts about the deceptive intentions of the Iranian government in playing with the international community. Motahhari is known for his frankness and realism in politics. In an interview with ISNA about transparency in the country’s political affairs, he explicitly said about the nature of the Iranian regime’s nuclear program: “The goal of the Islamic Republic of Iran from the nuclear programme has been to build nuclear weapons from the very beginning, because a country that wants to use nuclear weapons peacefully will never start uranium enrichment, but will build a reactor first, and then enter into the enrichment phase.” In this definition, the threat of the Iranian regime’s nuclear weapons has gone so far that the regime’s officials are talking about building a nuclear bomb. Now the question arises: how far is the Iranian regime from building an atomic bomb? The vague future of the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan in Vienna and the vain efforts of the Group of 5 plus 1 and the trivialization of the issue in the international arena, as well as the lack of preventive action by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the non-implementation of Security Council resolutions are disappointing, and these factors together have changed the mullahs’ political approach “from defence to the threat of a global nuclear attack.” The international community’s indifference has raised concerns about the Iranian regime’s efforts to advance covert military goals. It is no secret that the Islamic Republic has been pursuing nuclear weapons for decades, and Ali Motahari’s words confirm that if the opposition group had not disclosed and kept it secret, the mullahs’ regime could have resorted to nuclear weapons sooner than now. Recourse. Reports indicate that the Iranian regime’s rulers are announcing an acceleration of uranium enrichment and threatening the European and Western sides with “dire consequences” and “historic great defeat.” In this article, we will say that Ali Motahari’s words and various excuses in the Vienna talks are the clever method of the Iranian regime’s mullahs, and the main goal of the Iranian regime is to waste time in the Vienna talks until the atomic bomb is dropped. Undoubtedly, in the event of negligence and procrastination, the world will witness the final league of the nuclear game and the victory of the mullahs.

Introduction

Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a televised speech marking the Eid al-Adha holiday, in Tehran, Iran, July 31, 2020. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

For the past 20 years, the Iranian regime has consistently claimed that it is not seeking to build a nuclear weapon. Officials in the Islamic Republic have repeatedly cited a fatwa issued by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, banning the use of chemical and nuclear weapons, but so far no document has been published stating that there is a nuclear fatwa. Iran also confirmed the existence of Fordow’s second uranium enrichment site after it was leaked by US and French intelligence officials in September 2009. With the lie that its goal is not to produce nuclear weapons, and that its nuclear programme is only to generate electricity and create an indigenous enrichment industry, it has made the world a toy of its evil policies. In recent years, the Iranian government’s secrecy over the dimensions of its nuclear programme has raised Western concerns about the Iranian regime’s ability to achieve military goals. In late 2021, when the Iranian regime announced that it had increased enrichment above 20 percent, Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in an interview with a Japanese newspaper that 20 percent uranium enrichment was very sensitive. He said that after this stage (enrichment), it would be easier to build weapons. Uranium enrichment of up to 5% is sufficient to fuel conventional reactors that generate electricity. What makes Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity controversial and worrying for some countries is that if a country can enrich uranium to grade 5, it will be easier to enrich it to a higher degree.) Achieving enrichment up to this point means the ability to build an atomic bomb (Regarding Iran’s nuclear energy, When Iranian government officials announced in 2009 that they had begun enriching up to 20 percent to produce fuel for Tehran’s reactor, alarm bells rang for countries accusing the Iranian regime of seeking a nuclear weapon. Evidence released by the Atomic Energy Agency about the Iranian regime’s efforts since 2000 during the presidency of Mohammad Khatami to examine the military dimension of its nuclear programme while advancing its missile programme has reinforced this claim. At that time, Iran’s uranium enrichment progress was less than 3.5 percent, and in 2006, during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency, Iran’s uranium enrichment progress reached 3.5 percent. Finally, in early 2013, in the early years of Hassan Rouhani’s presidency, Iran’s 13-year nuclear case was closed in the Security Council with a comprehensive joint action plan, and Iran’s nuclear programme was partially halted by recognising the right to relative uranium enrichment and concreting at the Arak Heavy Water Research Reactor. The remarks by the former deputy speaker of parliament came as talks to revive a comprehensive joint action plan stalled due to the Islamic Republic’s insistence on demands, including the removal of the IRGC (Islamic Revolution Guards Corps) from the list of terrorist groups. His remarks suggest that Ali Khamenei considers the lifting of sanctions without removing the Revolutionary Guards from the list of terrorist groups to be practically useless, as the Revolutionary Guards are widely involved in economic affairs and any company that deals with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will be on the US sanctions list. From Khamenei’s point of view, the timing of the revelation of the acquisition of nuclear weapons during the negotiations was not logical. This is while he has corrected or denied his statements every time after his statements under the pressure of security agents! The reason is that the project of acquiring nuclear weapons and the participation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other military organs is managed under the supervision of Ali Khamenei, and more than 400 experts and researchers are working in these military bodies to acquire nuclear weapons. They operate outside of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. These experts are very cautious about the confidentiality of their work, and a number of them work under the guise of university professors. As a result, the acknowledgement of Ali Motahari, who is known for his realism and frankness in politics, is consistent with reality. He has an influential influence in the government and is associated with the Larijani brothers, and his outspoken criticisms have sometimes targeted the leader of the Islamic Republic. Including admitting “veto” in the plan to impeach ministers in parliament by order of high-ranking officials or Ali Khamenei’s office, and that he had said sarcastically:

“The Islamic Consultative Assembly has become Ali Khamenei’s public relations office.” Ali Motahari had explicitly stated before the last amendment in his strong denial of the regime’s efforts to become nuclear: “If a country wants to use peaceful nuclear energy, it will never start uranium enrichment, but first build a reactor and then enter the field of enrichment.” Motahhari stressed that the Islamic Republic of Iran had sought to build a nuclear bomb from the beginning to “strengthen the deterrent forces”, but was unable to maintain secrecy and was eventually exposed.

Deception is documented in Shiite jurisprudence:

A noteworthy point in Ali Motahari’s recent remarks is the clever and skillful deception with which the mullahs try to continue to mislead the international community regarding nuclear activity. He, who studied in religious schools, referred to the sharia ban on the use of nuclear weapons in Shiite jurisprudence and the Holy Quran and said: “Islam has not forbidden making an atomic bomb, but has forbidden its use, and Ali Khamenei forbids making a nuclear bomb!” This is while the Qur’an (verse 60 of Surah Anfal) emphasises retaliation in the war against the opponents of Islam, the path that Ali Khamenei has taken today. The political interpretation of Ali Motahari’s remarks is a piece of cake. Because if even one percent of Iran’s religious dictator Ali Khamenei’s claim that nuclear weapons are forbidden is true, the fallacy of “making” and “using” weapons could mean “building bombs and giving their representatives to use! ” . Because even if one percent of the claims of Ali Khamenei, the religious dictator of Iran, about the ban on nuclear weapons are assumed to be true, there will be fallacies in the two issues of “making” and “using” nuclear weapons, and this fallacy, with the historical background of the Iranian regime’s mullahs, is that they make bombs and give them to their allies for destructive use in the Middle East! Just like what they do with Saudi Arabia, they order an attack and their allies carry out war operations and then, out of long-standing habit, declare ignorance. In the Qur’an and Shiite jurisprudence, this method is called the path of religious escape, or taqiya. The path that is in front of the ruling mullahs in Tehran and the seminaries of Qom has provided the possibility of permissible religious deceptions (in their opinion).

*The meaning of taqiya in the Qur’an is: “precautionary concealment of one’s faith or opinion about something when its disclosure is feared to jeopardise one’s life or threaten any harm or loss.”

Therefore, according to Islam, lying is permissible if necessary, and this behaviour has become a famous and popular poem among the students of religious schools and can be heard in the words of the mullahs. “Every truth may not be true,” and these acts of clericalism in Iran (Akhundism) are more like Goebbels’ lies, which are called “big lies” in international politics. The term and technique of distorting the truth have become common practise in the propaganda of the clerical regime. These details of Shiite jurisprudence have led European and American governments to fall prey to the deception of Shiite clerics in Tehran and Qom, led by Ali Khamenei, in the last four decades. Europeans and Americans thought that the mullahs would never go for nuclear energy. The mullahs have been working for more than 20 years to consolidate their nuclear power, and in recent years, the international community has downplayed the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon. The Iranian regime’s nuclear threat is so advanced in Ali Motahari’s definition that the mullahs talk about building a nuclear bomb. The Islamic Republic has increased its uranium enrichment from 2.5 percent in 1989 to 63 percent by deceiving the International Atomic Energy Agency and the world based on the mullahs’ propaganda by acquiring nuclear weapons. Experts from the Arms Control Union (a non-governmental organisation in the United States) estimate that 1,650 kilogrammes of “76.3 percent” enriched uranium are needed to build an atomic bomb. Today, Iran’s uranium content has reached 63%, and it is clear that the Iranian regime has violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in January 1967. Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in November 2021 about monitoring Iran’s nuclear program: “We fly in a very cloudy sky and we can continue on this path, but not for long!” With the uncertain future of the Vienna talks, the question arises as to how far the Iranian regime is from building an atomic bomb. The answer to this question has been given by Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran in 2019, by deciphering the determination of the Iranian regime to build the capacity to build an atomic bomb in a predetermined program. “We hope we do not reach this stage, but we will reach it within four minutes whenever senior officials give the order,” he said.

The reaction of the international community to the Iranian regime’s acquisition of the atomic bomb:

This photo released November 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

Ever since the Iranian regime informed the International Atomic Energy Agency of its decision to increase uranium enrichment to 60 percent, France, Germany, and Britain (4 + 1) were aware that the Iranian regime had shifted its uranium enrichment path “toward the production of the atomic bomb.” They knew full well that the uranium enrichment ceiling standard for building an atomic bomb was 90 percent, and they knew that the clerical regime was secretly a few steps away from achieving the atomic bomb. But unfortunately, without any reaction, they only expressed concern in a dramatic way, and they said in a statement from the Troika: “This is a serious development because the production of high-enriched uranium is an important step in the development of nuclear weapons.” As a result, the foreign ministers of the three European countries have focused on “effect” rather than “cause” in reverse engineering, and they justify the return of sanctions as the final solution. In practice, Europe’s attempt to halt the mullahs’ nuclear programme has failed. China, Russia, and the United States (5 + 1) joined the nuclear talks with the aim of increasing the international weight of the opposing sides and changing the tactical phase of the Iranian regime from defence to offensive, and the talks in Geneva, Baghdad, Istanbul, and Moscow took on new dimensions. Negotiations continued by the Iranian regime led by Dr. Jalili (Chairman of the Supreme National Security Council) and the 5 + 1 countries led by the EU’s foreign policy chief (Catherine Ashton). Negotiations eventually failed, and with the issuance of new Security Council Resolutions 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1992, only economic pressure on the mullahs’ regime increased. The United States is no exception, and Joe Biden, who served as vice president during Barack Obama’s presidency in 2008, has remained silent despite his knowledge of the mullahs’ terrorist background and nuclear future. .On the other hand, the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf are also strongly opposed to the Iranian regime’s acquiring nuclear weapons, but it is not clear to what extent their interests prevent them from helping in a military confrontation with Iran. Meanwhile, on December 8, 2021, Israeli Defense Minister Bani Gantz met with media executives and senior researchers at American think tanks to warn of the progress of the Iranian regime’s nuclear programs. He said Iran was strengthening its military presence in the west of the country to attack Israel and other Middle Eastern countries, and now was the time to take action against Iran. It should be noted that Israel has repeatedly reiterated Iran’s nuclear concerns and declared its military readiness to attack Iran. The Israeli government has allocated $1.5 billion to prepare its armed forces for a possible attack on the Iranian regime’s nuclear sites, and its political and military leaders have warned the world about this. In an interview with Energy Intelligence, Director-General Rafael Grossi says in an interview that he opposes the use of force. He said the role of the IAEA was to increase access to Iran’s nuclear sites through face-to-face inspections and the installation of cameras, especially in centrifuge workshops. What is the goal? The call for European countries to abide by Vienna’s commitments and refrain from creating a crisis has so far gone unanswered. On the other hand, the rulers of the Iranian regime announce the acceleration of enrichment and threaten the European parties with “dire consequences” and “great historical defeat.” Whenever it is thought that breach of contract or breach of power is of a tactical nature, “for example, in order to push for an economic ransom from Europe or to influence American elections.” In this case, the horizon of this approach can be calculated in terms of existing risks. But if the mullahs’ current approach is considered strategic in nature, a completely different scenario emerges, ending in a nuclear bomb.

How serious are Tehran’s threats?

Leaving aside this issue, apart from intentionality, assessing the actions and behaviour of the mullahs’ regime shows that, contrary to the interactive spirit and appeasement of the Democrats in the American and European governments, the leaders of this regime do not hesitate to threaten and implement it. For example, when the Houthis only targeted Saudi Arabia with missiles, Ali Khamenei’s representative in the Kayhan newspaper threatened that it would be the turn of the UAE. When his remarks were underestimated, the Houthis also targeted the UAE on Khamenei’s orders, and for some time now, Khamenei’s representative in the Kayhan newspaper has been claiming that European cities are also in danger of launching IRGC missiles. There is a danger of the destruction of Israel, and the mullah leaders, from Rafsanjani to Ahmadinejad and Rouhani, and most recently Ibrahim Raisi, aspire to reach Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who are in a hurry to lift sanctions against Biden and his Democratic allies, have never hidden their intention to destroy Israel, and they have justified their main goal of removing Israel from the map.

 The authenticity of the threats of the Mullahs’ regime and the military collision hypothesis:

In today’s world, given the available resources, it seems that if the mullahs’ regime has access to destructive weapons, it will target not only Israel, but also Europe and the United States. This regime has not shown mercy to its neighbours either. For example, if the North Korean leader occasionally threatens a verbal attack on its southern neighbour or Japan, it has in practise never entered the operational phase. But in the case of the Tehran clerical regime, the situation is different. Although the feasibility study of the “operational capacity” of the IRGC soldiers has shown that they are very inefficient and weak, it should be noted that the “being cowardly” of the IRGC forces does not reduce the operational capacity of their proxy mercenaries. In recent years, IRGC agents have played a direct role in fewer overseas operations. Instead, their strategy is to hire new mercenaries and pay large sums of money.They are easily hunted and killed by the Israelis in Syria, and their main ability is to intimidate the internal opposition and to detain and repress Iranian women and youth. Therefore, it seems that the Iranian forces are afraid of a direct military confrontation, and their only strength is to attract mercenaries from the region, so that their names will not be included in the list of saboteurs if the situation becomes complicated and terrorist acts occur. As they said about the attack on Aramco, the UAE and the ships of the Persian Gulf, we are unaware of the matter, Rather, the resistance forces did their duty!

Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action 2 (JCPOA) and the military conflict between Israel and Iran ?!

What policy will Israel pursue if a Comprehensive Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action 2 (JCPOA) is concluded? This is a question that Israel has already answered. In the event of an agreement between Iran and the United States, or even in the event of a disagreement, Israel will allow itself to prevent the mullahs from acquiring nuclear energy at any time and in any way. Unlike US officials, an agreement with the Iranian regime can never prevent them from acquiring a nuclear weapon. In recent days, US officials have announced that the Iranian regime’s nuclear escape has reached several weeks. This shows that they still have the potential to become nuclear, and with the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan 2 (JCPOA), they temporarily put it in the drawer of the table to calm the situation, and when the situation calms down, they will start building nuclear weapons again “without international supervision.” Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, along with the popular mobilisation and proxy Houthis of the mercenaries of the Islamic Republic, whose credit accounts are being charged by the Islamic Republic of Iran at any time and even recently, Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah in Lebanon, demanded $ 25 million from the Iranian regime to interfere in the Lebanese elections. According to observers, this amount will probably be paid by Khamenei from the currency reserve due to the ban on the import of basic goods needed by the Iranian people. Undoubtedly, the regime of the Islamic Republic will try to create problems for its neighbours and Israel “through its proxy groups in the region.” They have promised to destroy Israel, and although they themselves do not dare, they are pursuing this goal through their mercenaries. Therefore, it seems that the Iranian regime’s nuclear negotiators in Vienna have evaded responsibility for the actions of their proxy groups in the region and they are only seeking access to vast sources of money to fund their destructive groups and to pursue covert efforts to acquire nuclear weapons.

Conclusion:

With the clear statements of Ali Motahari, the former deputy speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, one can understand the Iranian regime’s true intention to acquire a nuclear weapon. There is no doubt about the Iranian government’s deceptive intentions in playing with the international community. It can be said that the Iranian regime’s nuclear programme has been to build nuclear weapons from the beginning, and otherwise, as this member of parliament has stated. The Iranian regime’s threat of a nuclear weapon is so advanced in its definition that the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran talks about building a nuclear bomb. It is no secret that the Islamic Republic has been pursuing nuclear weapons for decades, and that the rulers of the Iranian regime are accelerating uranium enrichment, threatening the European and Western sides with “unfortunate consequences” and “historic great defeat.” Their main goal until they reach the atomic bomb is to waste time negotiating with the IAEA and strengthening its allied forces with the aim of attacking Israel and the rest of the world. In Ali Motahhari’s clever words, economic pressures alone are not enough for the mullahs who are accelerating in the pursuit of nuclear weapons, and to prevent the spread of the Iranian regime’s nuclear programs, it is necessary to issue a resolution and resort to military action. Undoubtedly, in the event of negligence and procrastination, the world will watch the final league of the “nuclear game” and the victory of the mullahs.

About the Author
Hamidreza Zarifinia is an Iranian writer, researcher and journalist in London.
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