If Britain Breaks, What Would It Mean for Israel?
What until recently sounded largely theoretical has become a little less so.
Meeting in Cardiff this week, the leaders of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Féin signed an agreement asserting the right of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to determine their own futures. They called on Westminster to prepare for constitutional change and declared, in striking language, that “Westminster’s time is coming to an end.”
They also said that they see the future of their nations in the European Union.
This does not mean that the United Kingdom is about to disappear. The three movements are at very different stages. Scotland has already held one independence referendum. Northern Ireland has a route to a future border poll under the Good Friday Agreement. Welsh independence remains considerably more distant.
But the significance of Cardiff should not be dismissed. For the first time, the principal nationalist parties governing Britain’s three devolved nations are openly coordinating around the principle of self determination.
For Israel, there is an interesting historical perspective.
The collapse of the Communist bloc transformed Israel’s diplomatic world. Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia restored relations with Israel. The Soviet Union itself restored diplomatic relations shortly before disappearing and being replaced by 15 independent states.
Czechoslovakia became two countries. Yugoslavia fragmented into several independent states. When Sudan divided in 2011, Israel quickly recognised the newly independent South Sudan and established diplomatic relations with it.
The lesson is not that the break up of countries is good for Israel. State collapse can produce precisely the opposite: instability, conflict and security threats.
But where functioning new states have emerged, Israel has often been remarkably successful in developing new political, economic and strategic relationships.
That makes the timing of the Cardiff meeting particularly interesting.
Relations between Britain and Israel are presently at one of their more difficult points. London has hardened both its rhetoric and measures towards Israel, particularly over the West Bank, while Jerusalem has responded sharply. Extreme voices on both sides are demanding still tougher responses.
Perhaps Cardiff should give both sides pause.
Governments change. Political circumstances change. Sometimes even countries change.
If Scotland eventually became independent, its present political leadership suggests that it could pursue a more critical policy towards Israel. A united Ireland, particularly with Sinn Féin influential, would probably also take a strongly pro Palestinian position. An independent Wales under Plaid Cymru might move in a similar direction.
And then there is England.
More than four fifths of the UK population lives in England. Without Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, its political landscape could look very different. A future English government might be more in line with the United States, more commercially focused and perhaps more sympathetic towards Israel than the government presently sitting in London.
None of this is inevitable, nor should Israel wish for the break up of an important friend.
But it does underline why both London and Jerusalem should think beyond the immediate confrontation.
Britain and Israel have deep ties in trade, science, technology, security and between their peoples. Those relationships are bigger than any particular government.
What we are witnessing today may prove to be a serious and lasting deterioration in relations. Equally, viewed from a few years hence, it may turn out to have been little more than a difficult hiccup.
Either way, this is no time to burn bridges.
The message from Cardiff is that even something as seemingly permanent as the United Kingdom can be questioned.
The quarrel between London and Jerusalem may pass. Whatever shape Britain takes in the future, the relationship should survive it.
Len Judes, KML
Former President and currently Honorary President, Israel Britain Chamber of Commerce
