Inadvertent Terrifying Escalation?

Iran has just launched a missile attack on Israel. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if Hezbollah did the same; Israel has damaged its capabilities, but has by no means rendered Hezbollah incapable of attacking Israel with some of its remaining tens of thousands of missiles. And it’s even possible that Hamas, beaten down as it is in Gaza, could launch some rockets as well. So could the Houthis in Yemen. Israel is in for an incredibly difficult time, and we can only hope that it has some plan beyond trying to shoot down as many missiles as possible before they arrive.

But what could be the greatest danger to Israel is not being mentioned. With so many missiles targeting Israel from so many directions, some are bound to get through Israel’s defenses. The missiles have varying degrees of accuracy, and some are bound to malfunction in some way. No one has any way of calculating the odds, but surely it’s possible that one or more missiles will damage the Al-Aqsa Mosque or the Dome of the Rock, or even destroy one or the other or both.

Though the missiles will have been fired by Israel’s enemies, we know what will happen. The New York Times headline will read: “Al-Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the Rock destroyed; Israel denies responsibility;” the Washington Post, “Explosion destroys Al-Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the Rock; Iran blames Israel;” the BBC and Al Jazeera, “Israel destroys Al-Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the Rock.” The US government will issue a statement calling for a political solution; Kamala Harris will say Israel has a right to defend itself; Faculty for Justice in Palestine will issue a statement calling for the destruction of the Zionist entity; and the Arab states, all of which will know exactly what happened, will say nothing.

This would be the moment of supreme danger for Israel. Many millions of Muslims across the Middle East will begin to march on Israel. Facing outraged mobs, the government of Egypt will begin to mobilize its troops. The Abraham Accords will disappear as if they never existed. The onslaught against Israel will be more intense and more terrifying than any other in the history of the world.

Perhaps this won’t happen. Perhaps through incredible luck there will be no malfunctions and no accidental destruction of Al-Aqsa. But that still leaves the possibility that there will be intentional efforts to destroy Al-Aqsa and the Dome of the Rock. There could be rogue launch site crews or even entire military units that decide that whatever the cost to Islamic holy sites, the destruction of Israel would be worth it. Or the government of Iran or the heads of Hezbollah could reach the same conclusion and, while carefully ensuring plausible deniability, launch a massive coordinated attack on the holy sites. In any case, the result would be the same as if the damage or destruction were accidental.
What can be done? When London was under constant bombardment by the Germans during the Battle of Britain (July-October, 1940), the British did what they could to protect especially important buildings and to get especially valuable papers and artifacts out to the countryside. But they certainly weren’t able to protect everything, and that was without facing a problem Israel confronts: the Muslim organization that administers the Muslim holy sites will resist Israeli efforts with all its strength.
Perhaps it would be a good idea for Israel to prepare the world for the possibility of Muslims destroying their own holy sites, accidentally or intentionally, as part of their war on Israel. Given how hostile so many nations are to Israel, no one could be confident that such a strategy would work; what’s more, the effort could be twisted into a claim that Israel is planning the destruction itself and is only trying, in advance, to divert blame.

Israel is under incredible stress. We can only hope that its leaders have given some thought to how to respond to missiles damaging or destroying the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock.