International Recognition of the Palestinian State: Risks and Opportunities

In recent days, several key countries, including France and Canada, have announced that they will recognize the Palestinian state during the upcoming session of the United Nations General Assembly in September. The British Prime Minister has also declared his intention to present a political plan that includes recognition of a Palestinian state under certain conditions. These countries may join more than 140 nations that have already recognized Palestine.

What does this recognition mean?
Practically speaking, such recognition does not currently have a direct impact on the ground, since the Palestinian Authority does not meet the international legal requirements to be considered a fully sovereign state, such as complete control over defined territories, independent authority over its population, and full autonomy in internal affairs and foreign relations. Legally, therefore, it does not qualify as a “state.”

Nevertheless, this recognition increases diplomatic pressure on Israel and restricts its freedom of action in the Palestinian territories, particularly given the large number of countries supporting the Palestinians.

This trend reflects broad international support for the two-state solution, which grew stronger during the recent war in Gaza, amid mounting global calls to resolve the conflict and achieve regional stability. It also reflects growing domestic pressure on Western governments from their own publics to act toward ending the violence.

It should be noted that in April 2024, a draft resolution was submitted to the UN to grant Palestine full membership, which was blocked only by an American veto. While recognition alone does not create a state on the ground without Israel’s approval, it weakens Israel’s international standing and makes it harder for it to operate in the West Bank and Gaza.

Moreover, growing international recognition allows the Palestinians to further internationalize the conflict, strengthening their demands for greater international involvement in their struggle with Israel.

This political “tsunami” coincides with calls from right wing circles in Israel, including some ministers, to annex Gaza and impose sovereignty over the West Bank, further fueling international perceptions of the need for urgent action. While the United States continues to serve as Israel’s diplomatic shield, recognition by countries such as France and Britain, both permanent members of the Security Council, would leave Israel relying solely on the American veto, something not always guaranteed, as seen during the Obama administration.

Therefore, Israel must adjust its policy to confront this growing pressure and secure security and political gains in exchange for the concessions it may be forced to make. These gains might include the creation of a regionally backed security and political alliance with international support.

Without such adjustments, Israel risks having a Palestinian state imposed upon it under unfavorable terms and without real reciprocity, a scenario that could lead to renewed escalation and greater threats to security and stability.