Iran Must Never Be Permitted to Possess a Nuclear bomb: the Underlying Quagmire

Iran will continue to try to convince the world that they are moderate victims of an insane, genocidal Israeli regime. They are far from ‘innocent victims’. They are the dominant reason for Middle Eastern instability and Israel has rightfully decimated their proxies of Hezbollah, Hamas and is currently degrading the Houthis of Yemen, the phalanx that is the third wheel or triad of Iran’s desire to be the essential, jihadist and geopolitical source of instability and terror whose objective is ultimately to eradicate Western influence in the region, annihilate Israel and extinguish Judaism from the Middle East. And they have made a pact with Russia to do so, providing drones for its war with Ukraine while receiving in return from Russia training in cybersecurity and the ability to conduct cyber warfare. Russia would dearly love to regain the influence it had a generation ago in this region when they were a chief sponsor of the Palestinian Liberation Organization.

The world owes a serious debt of gratitude to Israel for its willingness, courage and recognition that the the Houthis’ ability to wage mercantile warfare in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden must be eradicated so that the shipping lanes for vessels large and small, from container ships to large oil freighters can continue global trade free of disruption, free of terror, free of piracy, free of the kind of the terrorism that creates supply chain disruptions resulting in surging shipping and export costs (not to mention the surging insurance costs) as these vessels re navigate four thousand nautical miles or more around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope to reach their destinations.

The demise of Iran weakens Russia’s objectives in the Middle East, which were considerably more influential under Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The overthrow of Assad has weakened Russia and Iran and strengthened Israel’s hand. By disabling Hezbollah, Hamas and targeting the Houthis, Israel has severely crippled Iran’s ability to wage its wars of proxy–just as the breaking apart of the former Soviet Union created–at least for a time–a world far less intimidated by that virulent nuclear power’s desire to destabilize the world through its totalitarian style, communist wars of proxy. Paradoxically the Soviet Unions demise and emergence of an imperialist Russia–but without the power and economy of the USSR–has reduced the prevalence and proliferation of such wars of proxy and increased the chances of their dependence on a nuclear weapon–and that is the danger in Ukraine, a threat Putin continues to make when he fears losing this war, even though one would hope he rationally understands that the use of such a weapon of devastation would be used on his own country.

And that is also the danger Israel faces with Iran, as it defeats Iran’s proxies: the danger that Iran can and likely would use such a weapon on Israel as its regime becomes more and more threatened by defeat from without and decapitation from internal dissent. So, as Israel defeats Iran’s proxies, the threat of a nuclear confrontation with Iran grows.

The Iranian nuclear threat is severe, dangerous, at hand. The International Atomic Energy has just alerted the world that Iran has “continued its high-level uranium enrichment it had begun following President Donald Trump’s first-term withdrawal from a nuclear agreement signed by the Obama administration and has increased its stockpile of near-weapons grade material by at least 50 percent since February.”

I am certainly convinced that Iran is building several nuclear bombs that they would be prepared to use on Israel and or to provide their proxies. I support Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear sites and would have hoped that they would have done it in October 2024 when they launched strikes against their air defense systems associated with their missile program.

Iran is an existential threat to global security. But having said that I cannot ignore the political motivations of Prime Minister Netanyahu to stay in power at all costs, which implies continuing an ‘endless war’. And sadly, tragically, his unrelenting, scorching of Gaza has gotten to the point where it can be perceived as war crimes against humanity. The suffering, starvation, death and disease simply cannot be rationally justified, even though I have deep sympathy for the Prime Minister’s desire and mission to safeguard the existence of Israel and its home for Judaism for all time. However, the theoretical understanding of the Prime Minister’s mission to preserve the Jewish homeland in perpetuity cannot for me compensate for the human tragedy that has unfolded–and I cannot believe that this ‘endless war’ will not stain the land of Israel and the Jewish people for generations. And I cannot believe that there have not been solutions stopping well short of the madness that has unfolded.

The situation is complex. Israel is facing a threat to its survival and it is a battle in my mind of ‘Good vs evil’. Truth can be distorted and is being distorted by Hamas, the terror enterprise that massacred more than twelve hundred Israelis on October 7, 2023, taking hundreds hostage in heinous fashion. “Never Again”, was said after the Nazi Holocaust, and it was said again by Israelis and many Jews around the world on October 7, and in the months since that horror. Hamas can never be allowed to reside in Gaza again, and certainly can never be permitted to be the political representative of the Palestinian people. The weakening of Iran has weakened Hamas, but they are intent on staying in Gaza, continuing to do all they can to embed themselves, intent on outlasting Israels will to eradicate them, hoping to hang on so that Iran or Russia will regain influence to help them survive and form a state that inevitably will continue to terrorize Israel. Netanyahu cannot let this happen on his watch; and it is unlikely that after October 7 any Israeli Prime Minister would permit Hamas to survive as a political force in Gaza or become the representative of the Palestinian people in any kind of state or self determination.

In my judgment, President Trump has given Israel his consent to do as they please with Iran. Iran does not want to come to the table of “nuclear non proliferation”, and perhaps, in Trumps thinking, they may be more inclined to do so if their nuclear capabilities are devastated and their regime in danger of collapse. If that is President Trump’s strategy–to wink at Israel, as it were, to assent to its bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites, while he strives to gain concessions from Iran at the table it is one that compromises his integrity as a fair partner in any bargain. Perhaps, though, it might work, and Iranian leadership–fearing its demise–bargains with Trump and succumbs to a bargain to forfeit its nuclear ambitions and ability to threaten the existence of Israel. However, in my judgment that is as likely as Iran surrendering its concept of Jihad, a holy war that will be undertaken for as long as it takes to win. That is the mindset that Israel knows well, but that President Trump likely doesn’t understand.

President Trump has stated his desire to build hotels by the sea in Gaza, just as it is his intention to do so in Qatar, where deals have been made for his business interests to build billions of dollars of resorts. He has received a $400 million dollar 747 jet for his agreements and deal making ( an incredible breach of ethics and clearly not permitted under the emoluments clause of the US Constitution.) It is likely that the President has empowered the resolve of Prime Minister Netanyahu to fully occupy Gaza, never having to deal with a Palestinian State and, hopefully, outlasting Hamas until the threat is forever gone. This of course surrenders the Israeli people to an occupation that weakens the moral willpower of the nation, its sense of humanity shaken as it is continuously perceived as an occupying nation, a pariah nation, not to mention the economic costs of such an occupation in perpetuity. This occupation threatens a global anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism that undermines the Jewish identity. However, President Trump would be able to expand his brand just as Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to govern in avoidance of answering to or defending against claims of corruption–potentially surviving long enough to eventually usurp the independence of the judiciary, as he tried to do before October 7.

When a country is in an endless war, the temptation is for the leader to be perceived as the sole source of survival, rights and freedoms are compromised in the name of authoritarianism. Corruption is not punished but accepted as the cost of doing business and staying safe. President Trump, in my opinion, has used this as his modus operandi to frighten and intimidate the nation as he seeks more and more powers to suppress constitutional freedoms. It is an endless war against ‘criminal immigrants’ that affords him the ability to use a brutal paramilitary form of repression to intimidate and scare the American population and surrender their rights. It is my concern that Prime Minister Netanyahu is using a similar methodology in the pluralistic and highly democratic state of Israel.

Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to stay Prime Minister and hold on to his extremist cabinet that favors total settlement of the West Bank and Gaza. President Trump is intent on being the most powerful man in the world, but would appear to have a limited ability to make deals of any kind, whether they involve renegotiating his outrageously irrational global trade deals, making peace in Ukraine or between Israel and its neighbors. However, it would appear that he favors for his own personal reasons the Israeli occupation of Gaza, and the resettlement of its people. Such a position in Gaza–occupation and resettlement–seems right out of the World War 2, authoritarian axis playbook. It is astonishing and nightmarish to consider.

The road to peace in the Middle East is pluralism and democracy, not tyranny, authoritarianism and resettlement programs. It has been a practical solution prior to the election of Donald Trump that there can be an international or trans regional presence in Gaza that rids it of Hamas and opens the door to a Palestinian state representative of the highest aspirations of Palestinians and Israelis. The weakening of Iran may bring the world closer to this or closer to the threat of nuclear war–and thus the urgency of Israel to eliminate the Iranian Nuclear threat.

Weakening Iran in turn weakens Russia, but conversely may bring them closer to the use of a nuclear weapon, particularly if they are losing in Ukraine. The fact that President Trump seems to favor Russia at the same time that he is potentially prepared to engage militarily with Iran if Iran inflames the region and attacks American interests creates a geopolitical quagmire. It is fueled by dangers of authoritarianism by previously democratic nations, personal loyalties, disloyalties and vendettas–all against the backdrop of the threat of nuclear annihilation. The world is in a dangerous place, but at this moment in time there is one thing I know for sure: Iran can not be permitted to have a nuclear bomb.

Bruce Farrell Rosen
San Francisco