Iran: The mediators and their motives

I write as the world continues to await a US attack on Iran. US President Donald Trump continues to threaten, but in the meantime is negotiating. Israel wants Iranian regime change, and is hoping that Trump will set the stage for such an eventuality. Jerusalem and Washington have been closely coordinating.

After talks in Israel, US special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to meet with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Friday, though from one moment to the next, the fate of each ensuing diplomatic step is viewed as uncertain. Turkey is leading the effort to try to mediate a diplomatic solution and avoid a military confrontation.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia are also involved, as is Oman according to reports. Trump agreed to move the Witkoff-Araghchi talks to Oman from the originally-planned venue, Istanbul. Still, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is openly taking center stage. He is doing so throughout the region from Gaza to Iran, and in Syria and elsewhere. His regional ambitions are clear. He embraces Hamas and uses flagrant language against Israel.

Regarding Iran, Erdogan wants to show that he can stabilize the tension between Washington and Tehran. The Turkish president told Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian that Ankara wishes to facilitate a solution.

Trump has shown a liking and confidence toward Erdogan. The US president has also been enamored by Qatari leaders.

Of all the countries mentioned in the preceding paragraphs, Israel feels most comfortable with Saudi Arabia. According to a Foreign Ministry official: “The Saudis largely want what we want: calm. It would mean ridding of the Iranian threat and by extension ensuring a successful reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.

“It’s long been said that Saudi leaders have, over the years, felt even more threatened by the Iranian regime than we have. The Saudis still promote a Palestinian state, but also want to move ahead with where we were on October 6, 2023; a process that could lead to Saudi inclusion in the Abraham Accords,” according to the Israeli Foreign Ministry source.

The Israeli official said he did not want to be seen as “intimating any grandiose ideas that Israel has no concerns regarding a Saudi military buildup and we are in close contact with the Americans about that.”

Yet, Israeli diplomatic and military sources say that their major concern remains the role that Qatar and Turkey will play in Gaza. There is great skepticism that either country will prevent Hamas from regaining control.

I reached out to US and Israeli officials, asking them to connect me with Turkish and Qatari diplomats, but I was not successful. A US State Department source would only say that “the president and secretary [Marco] Rubio are confident that they can work with all members of the Gaza Board of Peace to ensure that Gaza is rebuilt and Israeli security is maintained.”

On Iran, the US official said: “We have made it clear that we are willing to work with all interested parties to reach a diplomatic solution, but that if the Iranian regime does not agree to our terms, they will suffer a serious blow.”

What I found especially interesting is that I could not convince the State Department official to utter the names of Turkey or Qatar; he insisted on maintaining a more general approach in referring to potential partners in advancing US goals.

On the other hand, I received more cooperation from both the State Department and Foreign Ministry in making contact with a Saudi diplomat.

The Saudi official told me that he had visited Israel on a number of occasions, and that a number of his colleagues have also done so, discussing “diplomatic and commercial advancements.”

There was a light moment in our conversation when he mentioned that on one of his visits to Israel, he was invited to a Shabbat lunch at the home of an Israeli businessman. “I learned about cholent; it was delicious and I asked for the recipe,” said the Saudi official.

Throughout the conversations with both Saudi and Israeli officials, I repeatedly challenged them on whether various differences between Riyadh and Jerusalem could be overcome, even if friendly overtures have been made.

The Saudi official said: “We will do our best, but it is also up to the Israelis.”

An Israeli diplomat said: “Listen, we have to consider our options. Clearly, President Trump is a great friend, but even with him, we have to navigate and voice our concerns. On Iran, we have to make sure that countries like Turkey and Qatar don’t lure him into an arrangement that will mean a continuing threat to Israel.

“As for Gaza, we have the same challenge. We will continue to work on achieving enough support within the framework of Trump’s Board of Peace and insist that Hamas is disarmed,” he added.

In summarizing his comments, the Israeli diplomat said: “What it comes down to is that many countries wish to have influence, wish to mediate, wish to facilitate; but most important for us are the motives of these countries and whether those motives serve Israel’s interests.