Iranian Nuclear Program’s Destruction: Israel/U.S. Political Considerations

Iran has spent hundreds of billions of dollars over decades developing a nuclear weapon. This includes research and infrastructure development, as well as the cost of sanctions.

There is no way Iran will give up its dream of having nuclear weapons – its insurance policy against the US if it invades Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich Gulf states. Iran does not just want the resources of these countries. The theocratic government wants a jihad – a holy war. Iran is Shia, and Saudi Arabia and other neighboring countries are Sunni.

Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure will be bombed into oblivion – only the timing is in question.

The attack will be carried out jointly by Israel and the USA. It could be carried out by either country independently, but it won’t be. Such an attack will have to be coordinated because the Iranian counterattack – which will be purely punitive in nature – will hit the resources of both countries.

For Iran to have a nuclear weapon, there are several stages. First, the decision must be made to “go for it”. Then they have to enrich uranium to 90%. They have 60% now, and apparently it only takes a few weeks to increase that from 60-90%. Latest estimates I have read: they have enough for five bombs or so.

Rumor has it that the intelligence services will know very quickly when the final stage of the enrichment process has begun.

Now for the political aspects. Netanyahu has often said publicly that Iran is very close to weapons-grade uranium. This is not fake news, but partial news.

Once the uranium is weapons-grade, it will take 6-12 months – give or take – to put it into warheads. Nuclear warheads are very complicated. So really, once the decision is made, there is at least a six-month window in which to attack.

During war, people tend to rally around the government. In the current multi front war in which Israel is engaged, this is NOT the case. Netanyahu and his government are anything but popular.

On top of that, Netanyahu is very busy with his court cases. As a bonus, he has the new Qatargate scandal to deal with. It is clear that his inner circle of advisers received money from Qatar while working in the prime minister’s office. To minimize damage, Netanyahu is trying unsuccessfully to portray Qatar as a “complex” state, rather than an enemy state that has given billions to terrorist organizations, including Hamas.

Recently, military reservists, past and present, have joined civilian groups in calling for an end to the war in Gaza to bring the hostages home. Netanyahu has extreme elements in his government who want the war to continue until Hamas is destroyed – which won’t happen for a long time- if ever, so the hostages won’t survive.

Netanyahu wants nothing more than to “save the world” by ordering the IDF to attack Iran. This would be his last and only chance to gain popular support, and then hope to make a deal with the court that doesn’t involve jail time. He could also ask the Israeli President for clemency.  After a potential plea bargain or pardon, Netanyahu will retire comfortably in the U.S. That is the reason Netanyahu wants this to happen in the near future – say, June.

However, an attack would have to be “coordinated” with the US – another way of saying “with the permission of the US.”

Now for the American side of the political equation: Trump also knows that only force will eliminate the nuclear weapons program. He has given Iran six weeks to declare an end to their nuclear weapon aspirations – the starting date is nebulous. This period will be extended, like with many tariffs, so it means nothing.

Trump and his security people also know that the actual development of a nuclear bomb takes at least seven months, and only after a decision has been made to build a nuclear bomb.

Unlike Netanyahu, Trump wants to delay this attack for as long as is operationally possible, for economic reasons.

The tariffs, real, imagined or delayed, have hit the US economy hard. The stock market has fallen dramatically and inflation is already rising – slowly but surely – as the cost of imported materials increases. (I ask the world’s forgiveness for mentioning only the US economy.) The economic fallout from an attack on Iran would be HUGE. Oil could rise to over $100 a barrel, up from around $60 at present. Stock markets could fall even further. The US has just spent a billion dollars attacking the Houthis, with limited effect. The military cost of hitting Iran, and then dealing with the reaction, would be many tens of billions. Not to mention the damage caused by Iran’s ballistic missiles – they have thousands.

The US economy needs to be on the strong side before it attacks. That will not be the case for many months.

After Netanyahu’s recent tea party at the White House, Trump said that Israel would “lead” the attack on Iran.  I take this to mean two things: first, that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure will ultimately only be destroyed by a kinetic attack; and secondly, that both Israel and the US will carry out the “coordinated” attack, and only with US approval. Trump’s temporary solution: negotiations with Iran. Steve Witkoff has set off to banter with the Iranian Foreign Minister. (I have infinite respect and admiration for Witkoff for his efforts to free the hostages in Gaza)

The Iranians will undoubtedly ask the US for acts of good faith, i.e., sanctions relief during negotiations. The US may not agree. On the other hand, Trump is unlikely to increase sanctions during the talks. (A senior member of the administration recently said that the US could cut off Iran’s oil exports completely if it wanted to do so.)

I expect the ping-pong negotiations to continue sporadically until either the US economy is much stronger, or the Iranians make enough progress in nuclear development to make (real) operational considerations a priority.

If the U.S. pressures Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza, don’t be surprised if, shortly thereafter, “anonymous” sources in the Israeli government pump news regarding Iran’s nuclear progress.

Fasten your seatbelts, 2025 is going to be a turbulent year.