Iranians should seize the moment to topple the regime
In the past month, three major developments have created a unique opportunity for the Iranian people to challenge and topple the Islamic regime. These include the significant weakening of Hezbollah, Israel’s unprecedented strike on Iranian territory, and the lack of regional support for Iran amidst these challenges. Adding to this is Iran’s worsening economic crisis and growing factional tensions within the regime, placing it in a particularly vulnerable position across multiple fronts.
The decline of proxies
The Islamic regime is swiftly losing the regional proxy powers it spent decades cultivating. These groups no longer can credibly threaten regional countries or offer Iran significant support in conflicts with Israel and the United States.
Within weeks, Israel has managed to dismantle much of Hezbollah’s leadership and military capability. Estimates from leading Israeli and international sources suggest that Hezbollah has lost up to 80 percent of its missile capabilities, leaving it largely incapacitated as a terrorist threat to Israel or any other nation. This rapid decline marks a substantial loss for Iran, as Hezbollah was considered Iran’s strongest proxy in its regional confrontations, particularly regarding Israel.
Iran’s other regional proxies have also been significantly weakened. Hamas, facing considerable setbacks both militarily and politically, is on the verge of collapse as an organized force, with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad likely in a similar position. The remaining threat these groups pose is largely centered on the Israeli hostages they currently hold. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen, targeted by both Israel and the US-UK coalition, are unlikely to survive prolonged pressure from the West and countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, given the critical economic and security interests at stake in the Red Sea.
Iran’s vulnerabilities laid bare
Israel’s recent strike within Iran’s borders sent a clear signal to the Iranian regime: Israel can target any site within Iran, including nuclear, oil, and gas facilities. While the full extent of the damage remains unconfirmed, reports based on satellite imagery, expert analysis, and leaks from credible international sources suggest significant setbacks to Iran’s defense and offensive capabilities.
The strike appears to have dismantled much of Iran’s Russian-supplied S-300 air defense systems, reducing Iran’s ability to detect and intercept hostile aerial incursions. In a coordinated assault on air defense systems in Syria and Iraq, Israel has further degraded Iran’s defensive network. Additionally, Israel’s targeting of Iran’s solid-fuel engine facilities has hindered its ability to produce advanced ballistic missiles, weakening its offensive posture.
Israel’s release of limited information on these strikes suggests that the intended audience was Iran’s leadership rather than its public. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was likely briefed on the scale and implications of the attack shortly after it occurred, understanding the depth of Israeli intelligence capabilities, the operational penetration that made the strike possible, and the potential exposure of Iran’s nuclear, oil, and gas facilities to similar operations in the future.
Regional countries’ limited support for Iran
Despite extensive diplomatic efforts by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, regional countries have shown minimal support for Iran following the October 26 Israeli strikes. Reactions were limited to general statements condemning Israeli airspace violations or complaints about territorial integrity breaches. The most notable response came from Iraq, which filed a UN complaint against Israel. Syria, meanwhile, remained largely silent.
Some analysts might argue that an external threat could rally the Iranian people behind the regime, as seen during the Iran-Iraq War. However, the circumstances differ significantly. Whereas Iraq’s invasion aimed to occupy Iranian territory, Israel’s actions have been defensive, targeting only military sites linked to Iran’s anti-Israel proxies and missile attacks without causing civilian casualties. Moreover, the Iranian regime’s 45-year track record of repression has left it highly unpopular, as shown by widespread anti-government demonstrations in recent years, including the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini protests.
The Iranian public also perceives the regime’s nuclear ambitions as aimed not at peaceful energy development, but at securing its own survival against both foreign and domestic pressures.
The case for change in Iran
The prevailing belief in Iranian political culture that major change is impossible without US or UK approval may no longer hold true. Recent geopolitical shifts, including the October 7 war and subsequent regional developments, have altered the strategic landscape. The next US administration will likely face a choice between tolerating Iran’s continued aggression, its alliances with Russia and China, and its destabilizing role in the Middle East, or embracing a vision of a new, democratic Iran as part of a broader reordering of the region.
Iran’s regional proxies have been dealt significant blows, and its vulnerabilities have been exposed to both the international community and the Iranian people. It is clear to both Israel and the US-led coalition that the Islamic regime remains the central obstacle to stability in the region. The Iranian people now face an unparalleled opportunity to challenge the regime while it is weak and before it acquires nuclear capabilities, which could further entrench its hold on power. The conditions are ripe for change, and the Iranian people should seize this moment to take decisive action.