Iran’s Attack Suggests Weakness of its Proxies

On Tuesday night, Iran launched a salvo of nearly 200 ballistic missiles directly at Israel, sending almost all Israeli civilians into bomb shelters. The vast majority of the missiles were intercepted by Israeli air defense systems, while only one casualty was suffered: a Palestinian man from Jericho. Iran’s desperation and initiative in directly targeting the Jewish state through missile fire points to the deterioration and incompetence of its proxy-terror armies. 

On October 8, Israel was at perhaps the weakest point in its history. It had suffered the worst terrorist attack in its history on October 7, when over 1200 Israelis were killed and hundreds were taken hostage after Hamas terrorists stormed across Israel’s southern border. In the wake of the attack, Israel’s intelligence services seemed incompetent, and its deterrence weak. Since then, Israel has been locked in intense urban warfare with Hamas, and has successfully destroyed Hamas’s military capabilities, rendering it a small, insurgent guerilla force that can occasionally pop out of tunnels and attempt to harm IDF soldiers. Israel has succeeded in destroying 23 out of 24 of Hamas’s militant brigades and has assassinated most of Hamas’s leadership, while Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar hides underground, surrounded by Israeli hostages who he uses as human shields. Today, Israel finds itself militarily and strategically strong, with the cancer of Iran’s terror forces in remission. 

Now, Israel has turned its attention to the north. Last week, Israel began its “limited ground operation” in Lebanon, after its ingenious pager and walkie-talkie explosion operations and a weeklong campaign of targeted airstrikes across Lebanon, crippling Hezbollah’s leadership and liquidating its terror chief and de-facto leader Hassan Nasrallah. Before the incursion, Israel mobilized several units to its northern border and moved its 98th paratroopers division from Gaza to the north to fight alongside the Golani brigade. Israel likely seeks to push 15-25 kilometers into Lebanon and establish a security buffer zone, allowing its displaced citizens to return to their homes along Israel’s northern border. While Israeli soldiers operate across the border, Israeli Air Force jets continue to strike missile launchers, munitions and terror targets across Lebanon.

Through its operations in both Gaza and Lebanon, the Israeli Defence Forces and intelligence services have brutally exposed and crippled Iran’s proxy-terrorist armies. Hamas has been crushed, and Hezbollah, which was previously thought to be the world’s most competent terrorist force, has been torn into disarray, with its communications systems entirely destroyed and its leadership toppled. Although the incursion into Lebanon may be deadly for Israel, with Hezbollah fighters utilizing guerilla warfare tactics, the IDF is more than prepared for the challenge, as Hezbollah has already been decentralized and decapitated. 

Iran, in frustration of the failings of its proxy-terrorists, has gambled by lobbing missiles at Israel’s major population centers. Even these strikes were fruitless. Iran only succeeded in murdering a Palestinian man from Jericho, and did very little damage to civilian or military infrastructure. Although large missile barrages are terrifying for civilians and concerning for any sovereign nation, Israel should see Iran’s direct attack as a sign of weakness and desperation. Previously, Iran had thought it could simply strike Israel through its heavily-armed and well-funded proxy-groups, while maintaining plausible deniability. Now, however, Iran’s terror forces have been exposed as paper tigers, crumpling when prodded. In the wake of Iranian aggression and impulsivity, it is crucial for Israel and its allies to respond swiftly. Israel must continue to restore its deterrence against Iran through force, and put Iran’s nuclear program and crude oil exports in its crosshairs.