Iran’s regime between the devil and deep blue sea

Iran’s worse-case scenario in the foreseeable future is the collapse of the tyrannical regime following possible US attacks that may trigger a brief regional war that would die down after a transitional democratic government takes effect amid ensuing chaos.

With the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier approaching Iran and over 50,000 Middle East-based American troops “fully loaded and ready to go” as President Trump describes it, plus his renewed ultimatum that has sent Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into an underground bunker, Iranians are now hoping that sooner rather than later would the regime fall to end the hypocrisy of the self-acclaimed pious governance that has for 47 years denied the Iranians the merits of democracy.

What was once considered taboo and a blasphemous act punishable by death is now a common practice in Iran: worshipers flocking to mosques, chanting “Long Live the King” against pro-regime preachers—a clear indication that Iranians are fed up with the theocratic rule and are demanding the return of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.

Khamenei’s military loyalists are not only sandwiched between the specter of much superior military might of America and Israel; they are being suppressed by widening erosion of public trust that has driven them at bay. By any military calculation, the IRGC cannot win the war in the absence of public support.

But Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait are likely to be the targets of Iranian missile and drone counterattacks for hosting US bases in the event the US launches massive air raids on Iran’s military facilities.

Israel too would be targeted by the IRGC in revenge for the incapacitation of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis terrorist groups, but this would drain Iran’s energy in the face of a mightier power: the United States.

Attacking Israel would be energy-wasting and suicidal, because Iran would need to direct its missiles toward Arab countries hosting US bases. Should the IRGC take such a brazen step again, Israel would—even in anticipating its imminence—launch massive air raids to finish off the fast-depleting power of Iran’s military amid discreet defection of its military personnel and loyalists.

But in the event the 27 US Air Force, Navy, and Army bases and posts in Arab countries are attacked, that would immediately spell the end to the Ayatollah regime. Not only the US, but Israel and those Arab hosts of US bases will support the military campaign to finish off the regime.

Cornered between the devil and deep blue sea, the Iranian supreme leader and his loyalists are trapped in an unavoidable Catch-22: confronting the mightier US forces would be suicidal, crying uncle would mean facing angry demonstrators ready to take revenge for the massacre that has claimed untold number of innocent lives. Either choice would spell doomsday for the supreme leader and his loyalists; and even seeking asylum anywhere would still result in regime change.

For prestige’s sake, the IRGC would continue to flex its muscles against the US, with its commander having announced that their “fingers are now on the trigger”. But this would be a poorly calculated strategy that would only end in defeat. It is now up to President Donald Trump to decide whether to crush the regime the hard way, or do so in a different way to minimize civilian casualties.

Will Iran’s allies step in? For many strategic reasons including long-term considerations, Russia is not likely to join the war in defense of Iran unless its strategic interests in the Middle East are dangerously affected. Even so its involvement would be limited to protecting its own interests.

With European NATO members now restoring relations with Moscow and President Putin still busy with Ukraine, plus Mr. Putin’s good relations with Mr. Trump, Russia would not waste energy to join another country’s war, especially because it does not have a mutual defense pact with Iran. And it is more important for Moscow to restore relations with those NATO members than adventurously breaking them by siding with Iran against the US and other NATO members.

Article Five of the NATO Charter will be put to test in the event Iran launches massive attacks on US bases in the Middle East. Great Britain has already sent its military assets to support those US bases and other NATO members are weighing their options. What is unclear is how China would react if the US attacks Iran—other than uttering its normative deploring rhetoric. Most probably Beijing also would refrain from joining another country’s war to risk draining its resources.

Iran’s massive massacre of innocent pro-democracy protesters—which is a naked violation of human rights—is a factor that would discourage its allies from rallying behind the regime against the campaign for regime change. As China does not want others to recall the Tiananmen massacre, it certainly does not want to revive the memory by openly aiding Iran against democratic forces.

That being the developing landscape, Iran would most probably fight the war alone, while counting on its weakened proxies to attack Israel and US bases in order to widen the war, pulling Arab countries into the debacle. If this is the eventual scenario, Iranians will celebrate regime change victory in the not-too-distant future, because no government can stand amid deteriorating erosion of public trust at home.

A better option might be for Khamenei to immediately seek asylum abroad to allow Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to return and rebuild the country. With more than 350 mosques already burned or destroyed—unprecedented in Iran’s history—and worshipers now chanting “Long Live the King” from inside other such places of worship, the message is clear—now is the time for Pahlavi to return and for Khamenei to go away.

Now that Khamenei’s third son has taken over the supreme command while he hides underground, there is little—if any—hope that the regime can survive. It is only a matter of time before pro-democracy Iranians celebrate victory.

If the Ayatollah regime collapsed, all its proxies would lose strength, more Arab countries would feel encouraged to join the Abraham Accords, and the proposed Cyrus Accords could take shape, sponsored by a new democratic government that will have good relations with all the rest of the Middle East.

Israel and Iran would then normalize relations in a new regional architecture, and if the second-phase of Trump’s Gaza plan is successfully implemented, peace and stability may return to the Middle East as one of the prerequisites for reshaping the next global order. And history is rewriting itself today in a way nobody can cancel. [*]