Iran’s road back

Let’s say you’re a mullah. Or better yet, a leader in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – maybe Esmail Qaani, commander of the IRGC Quds Force, who may not be nearly as dead as Israel thought. It’s been a rough couple of weeks. You’re still assessing damage – lots of wreckage, lost expertise, and lessons learned. The biggest lesson is vulnerability. Iran has been essentially naked to its enemies since October 2024, when Israel took out the main air defenses and finished the job during its June onslaught. Conventional weapons, defensive and offensive, proved essentially useless. Israel struck at will and knew where to strike. The U.S. also bombed you. Only nuclear weapons will deter your enemies.

You were pretty smart to get Qatar involved right away. Your country and Qatar share the world’s largest natural gas field and are simpatico on the big issues, like manipulating the U.S. and supporting Hamas. True, the Qataris were uncharacteristically undiplomatic at the outset: “Shut up and listen to us for once!” they shouted. “You know how to string out negotiations but your diplomacy is medieval!” Your face turned redder than the Red Flag of Revenge you raised over the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom. But you watched with admiration as they convinced U.S. President Donald Trump that your regime was still willing to talk despite the thrashing he gave you. Were the mullahs to fall and be replaced by some Quds Force hardliner – i.e., yourself – who knows, the U.S. could have (shiver) a forever war on its hands. Immediately Trump announced not some anodyne blather about the Iranian people choosing their own leaders, but actual opposition to regime change! Magnificent!

Trump is all about the win, they told you. He can be magnanimous after a smackdown as long as you don’t insult or provoke him. Play the battered, penitent child. Let Israel be the recalcitrant bully. Your parliament rashly voted to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Have your foreign minister explain it’s for their own safety until the sites are secure. Raise all the flags you want but no middle fingers. Get it now?

Yes, you get it, having listened well to those insolent fatcats. You ruefully announced that your nuclear sites were “badly damaged,” knowing that if you said otherwise, it would just invite more bombing. You’re no longer threatening to accelerate development of nuclear weapons. You stopped calling Israel a cancerous tumor that must be removed and started complaining about a lack of trust.

Now just listen to Trump. He says you need sanctions relief to rebuild your country – even though few non-military assets suffered any damage. He says he doesn’t even see the need for a formal agreement since your nuclear capacity has been obliterated – as he boasted and you wisely didn’t dispute. Let him play big daddy!

The enriched uranium you foolishly announced that you rescued and hid might be a problem. You may have to give it to Russia, at least for a while. Unless you can turn it into a weapon faster than Trump can negotiate its export. In the meantime, maybe you still have secret enrichment sites with working centrifuges; who knows?

“Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet,” goes an old Persian proverb. Now you just need to make and demonstrate a nuclear weapon and you’re home free. North Korea will never get bombed. Pakistan will never get bombed. Ukraine gave up its nukes and look at it now.

Eyes on the prize, boys.