Is there a snowplow in our future?

So says Merriam-Webster: “A hypothesis is an assumption made before any research has been done…, while a theory is a principle formed to explain the things already shown in data.  And what does our data show?

A while back we hypothesized that the more tables drawn or tabulated, the more maps downloaded and sketched upon, and simply the more discussion about snow and a possible future snowstorm — the more likely it would indeed snow.  While after much of all of these, it did indeed snow in the northern cities of Israel during our last storm, but only wet flakes fell during nighttime in the highest elevations of the central mountains.  So, to be honest, I really thought that it was time to jettison this  hypothesis and suggest a new one.  But I am stubborn and thought to myself: they simply had to do more, and indeed Jonathan Hoffman and Yaakov Cantor  not only redoubled but quadrupled their efforts.  Intense research was and continues to be done on which atmospheric circulation patterns are more likely to bring snow to Jerusalem and its surrounding environments and by gosh I think they are going to succeed.  And when that happens, the hypothesis will become a theory: talking about snow does indeed bring snow — provided one talks enough and waits long enough for it to happen.

So, what are they talking about. The are speaking about a massive ridge of high pressure that will build into western Europe. At the same time, real Siberian cold, which has been building in western Russia for some time will jettison a large “blob” of very cold air.  The winds circulating around the ridge will direct the blob southward, which will flood the eastern Mediterranean with well below freezing temperatures reaching down to about about 1400 m above sea level.  This very cold air will then makes its way towards the higher elevation surfaces as precipitation grows in intensity as winds blow in off the relatively warm Mediterranean Sea.  Plenty of moisture should combine with extremely cold air around 700 mb (about 3000 m above the surface) to produce an environment ideal for the growth of large snowflakes.  The larger they are, the more likely they are to survive the plunge to the rooftops and gardens of homes in the Jerusalem area.

Now that that is explained, we should cut to the chase: it’s going to get very cold, stay cold and precipitate from Friday of this week until mid-next week.  It will be the kind of cold that could burst the solar power panels.  Due to the extreme cold, there are strong indications that snow will become the dominant precipitation type in the higher elevations of the northern and central mountains from very late Friday or early Shabbat morning through Wednesday the following week, with the highest chances of a major snow accumulation on Monday and Tuesday of that week. The chances of a major snow are about 30%, meaning about 30% of the ensemble members show the 500 mb trough nosing far enough south to bring strongly convective, periods of snow. Otherwise, a light coating or a dusty coating of several centimeters are both strong possibilities during this period.

Until the end of the week, there will be a lot of buzz about the upcoming cold and possible snow.  All I can say if you doubt your ability to make a difference, watch this trailer.