Is Trump Losing Interest in Israel?

Statistically, Israelis and pro-Israel American voters prefer Donald Trump, remembering how he moved the embassy to Jerusalem, recognized the Golan, and launched the Abraham Accords.

However, there is growing evidence that a second Trump term may not be so favorable for Israel.

Let’s consider the following points which I believe, strongly indicate that something has changed in Trump’s perception of Israel.

1. Trump is laying the groundwork to scapegoat American Jews.

For years, Trump has been unhappy that large portions of American Jewish voters prefer to back Democrats.

Trump has begun voicing this grievance with greater intensity in recent months. On Oct 7, 2024, the anniversary of the Oct 7 attack, Trump told radio host Huge Hewitt that “Israel has to do one thing. They have to get smart about Trump because they don’t back me. I did more for Israel than anybody…And it’s not reciprocal.”

This statement followed Trump’s speech at the Israeli-American Council National Summit on Sep 20, 2024. In this speech, Trump suggested that a potential loss in the polls would be the fault of American Jews. “If I don’t win this election, and the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that if that happens because if 40%, I mean, 60% of the people are voting for the enemy, Israel, in my opinion will cease to exist within two years.”

The clear tone of scapegoating that is all too familiar to Jewish ears as Trump leans into rhetoric of disloyalty and betrayal.

2. Trump grievances are personal when it comes to Netanyahu

For anyone familiar with Trump, it is clear that he values two things, loyalty to him and perceived strength.

Despite Trump and Netanyahu working closely together in the past, the fact that Netanyahu congratulated Biden while Trump was in the midst of calling the 2020 election results into question became a sore point of perceived betrayal in Trump’s eyes.

Ever more critically, Trump has accused Netanyahu of refusing to participate in the 2020 assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleiman, suggesting that at the last minute “Bibi did not do the right thing” and left America to go it alone against Iran.

In the aftermath of the October 7 attack, as almost universal support for Israel and condemnation for Hamas flowed from world leaders, Trump instead accused Netanyahu of being weak.

3. Trump praises Israel’s enemies while seeming indifferent to the threats they pose.

Who can forget when Trump “fell in love” with Kim Jon Un or repeated praised Vladimir Putin and bragged how he “trusted him more than America’s intel experts.”

In the aftermath of the horrors of October 7, as world leaders condemned the attack, Hezbollah became the latest recipient of Trump’s praise, which he described as being “very smart.”

This statement echoes Trump’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which he was quick to describe as “this is genius. Putin declares a big portion of Ukraine independent…You gotta say, that’s pretty savvy.”

Trump’s reactions to the deaths of Sinwar and Nasrallah were also deeply troubling.

While Vice President Harris described Sinwar’s demise as “Justice has been served…the United States, Israel, and the entire world are better off as a result.”

Trump on the other hand made no statement until asked by a reporter. His answer was verbal equivalent of a shrug “He was not a good person. That’s sometimes what happens.”

In the aftermath of Nasrallah’s death, Harris’s official statement read in part “Nasrallah was a terrorist with American blood on his hands…Today Hezbollah’s victims have a measure of justice. I will always support Israel’s right of self-defense.”

World leaders echoed support for Israel’s actions to bring these terrorists to justice.

However, Trump’s silence was so deafening that Yeshiva World News ran an article “Where is Trump’s Statement?” Apparently, he did not think that the demise of Nasrallah, one of the most powerful terrorist leaders in the world was worth significant enough to comment on.

4. MAGA Isolationism Does not Care What Happens Overseas

In the past few days, Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance, who represents the strongest isolationist faction of the Republican Party made a series of troubling remarks on a podcast interview ‘The Tim Dillon Show.”

He warned that sometimes American and Israeli interests would not overlap. His go to example was “it is very much not in our interests to go to war with Iran.”

Iran, the Islamic regime who chants “death to Israel and death to America” with equal fervor and has repeatedly targeted American troops stationed in the Middle East. The same Iran intent on acquiring nuclear weapons. But to Vance, dealing with this threat would be an expensive distraction. He continued by suggesting the Biden-Harris administration is “prolonging” the war and “sleepwalking towards war with Iran.” Keep in mind that Vance was one of a small minority of senators (79-18)  to vote against the aid packages that Congress passed to support US allies including Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine.

5. Trump is catering to Arab voters. With the help of his daughter Tiffany’s Lebanese-American father-in-law, Trump has leaned into the efforts to appeal to “Arabs for Trump” with recent campaign stops in Dearborn Michigan, the city known for the largest Arab population in the USA. On his social media account, he promised to “fix the problems caused by Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon.”

The fact that Trump would highlight the suffering and destruction in Lebanon, where the IDF is working to dismantle Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure, while ignoring the suffering of the northern communities of Israel who have enter endured over a year of being displaced from their homes or suffered almost daily rocket attacks hints that the Pro-Israel Trump of 2016 no longer exists.

Imagine what happens if Arab-American voters chose Trump on Election Day while Jewish Americans do not. In such a case, where will Trump’s sympathy lie as he shapes his administration’s approach to the Middle East?

Trump has openly bragged of his love for Kim Jong Un and his trust and admiration for Putin. When Iran and Russia planning to sign a comprehensive treaty in the coming weeks, strengthening the ties of the anti-democratic alliance, where will this leave the Trump administration, who already display a shocking indifference to Israel’s war?

With external pressure from Russia and internal pressure from Arab and “American First” isolationist voters Trump’s signature unpredictability is deeply concerning.

In such a scenario anything would be possible. Would Trump attempt to “end the conflict in a day” on terms that are favorable to the aggressor and intolerable to an ally and threatening to defund and withhold US aid and support are not hard to imagine. One needs to only look at Trump and Vance’s position towards Ukraine.

I hope I am wrong. But as one Muslim-American voter told Al Jazeera in their recent article “Why Arab-Americans are Flocking to Trump,” Harris represents 100% support for Israel continuing the war, if there is a 1% chance that Trump will end it, he deserves Arab-Americans support. Looking at Trump’s recent behavior, I fear the percentage is higher than 1% and something that all Pro-Israel voters in the US election must take into account at the ballot box this coming Tuesday.