Israel and Saudi Arabia Should Both Play the Trump Card

Israel is seeking a peace deal with Saudi Arabia. A Saudi deal would be a great accomplishment. It would help to mitigate the religious dimension of the conflict in the Middle East and throughout the world. It would end over a millennium of civilizational tension. It would help to turn back the tide of attempts around the world to delegitimize Israel.

Saudi Arabia has publicly indicated reluctance to enter into a deal without some reference to a pathway to statehood for the Palestinians.

Israel so far has signaled it wishes the deal to say little or nothing about the Palestinian issue.

Israel should instead seize the vehicle of a Saudi peace agreement to make a strong, concrete, and positive statement about the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It should seek, with Saudi Arabia, to use a Saudi Peace deal to reframe the solution to the conflict around the 2020 Trump Peace Plan.

Doing so would re-anchor the focus on peace efforts on a realistic and achievable solution. The Trump Plan – “Peace to Prosperity” – is extraordinarily clear, specific, and attentive to the legitimate interests of all concerned.

There is no realistic prospect of agreement or stability if Israel were simply to retreat to its 1967 boundaries and recognize the immediate creation of a fully independent Palestinian state. The Trump Peace Plan, by contrast, included several crucial principles that would make a lasting peace actually  attainable:

-minimal or no displacement of existing populations;

-the parts of the Palestinian state, including those in Gaza and the West Bank, would be interconnected by transport routes;  the concept is effective transportation links, not full geographic contiguity;

-Israel would control security over the entire Israel/Palestinian area vis-a-vis the wider world;

-the Palestinian area would be genuinely demilitarized;

-meaningful efforts would be taken to  promote the education of children that leads to peace and cooperation;

-there will be no sovereignty for the Palestinian state unless and until it is demilitarized and united under one credible and effective political authority;

-the Palestinian people would be offered a set of options, including settling in the new Palestinian state, but not including a “right of return” that would effectively wipe out Israel’s existence as a Jewish homeland;

-the focus would be on promoting economic self-sufficiency and prosperity for the Palestinian people, not one-time compensation, or ongoing dependency on international welfare.

Since the Trump Plan was proposed on January 2020,  there have been fundamental changes that make the essence of the Trump Plan even more promising. With the Abraham Accords, Israel reached recognition and peace agreements with five Arab states. With its hard-wrought military achievements against Iranian proxies, Israel has demonstrated it has the means and will to counterbalance forces that threaten the Arab world, including Iranian imperialism.

Palestinians can view the Trump plan in a different light than being confined to a Palestinian state. It can include being enabled to become part of a wider Arab economic zone that is at peace with Israel and in which Arab states, including a Palestinian state, can themselves prosper.

The Trump Plan proposes various forms of territorial compensation in comparison to the 1967 boundaries of the Jordan-controlled West Bank and the Egyptian-controlled Gaza. These include a transportation corridor between Gaza and the West Bank and some possible transfers of Israeli territory.

I would suggest that compensation can be framed as including rendering some territory as  subject to “local choice.”  Some parts of the Arab Triangle in the Galilee would have the option, after the rest of the deal is implemented, to join the new Palestinian state or remain in Israel. The potential for local choice would further incentivize the Palestinian state to govern itself well. It is entirely possible that local majorities would even then vote to remain, as a respected national minority, in the Jewish state. Even then, the ability to choose would itself stand as a credible form of compensation.

Peace in the region is more likely to come from “outside-in” – from the neighbouring Arab states coming to terms with Israel than from immediate acceptance from Palestinian political leadership.

Why not use the Saudi peace deal as the vehicle for affirming the essence of the Trump Peace Plan – now, while its proponent is the President of the United States when a party that values Israel is in power in the executive and both elected chambers of Congress when Hezbollah has been devastated,  when Syria might be moderating when Iran is being pushed back when Saudi Arabia is still looking for a partnership with the United States and Israel?

This historic opportunity may never recur and can be the basis for broad agreement among the Israeli public. Unanimity will never be possible, but the Trump Peace Plan is the most thoughtfully framed and realistic plan ever proposed for achieving the necessary level of agreement with Israel, and between Israel and its neighbours. Israeli leaders should do everything possible to achieve a strategic opportunity that might never come again.  Israel, the neighbouring Arab states, the United States  can together say “yes”to a sound and constructive vision;   unless and until it is realized, let the burden of any rejectionism be clearly and publicly on the side of Palestinian leaders.