Israel’s Alliance With The US Is At Risk

Israel and the United States have reached an inflection point in their decades-long relationship. As its international isolation grows, Israel can no longer be certain that it can rely on its greatest ally unequivocally.

Until three years ago, Israel could count on bipartisan congressional support, with most Democrats and Republicans backing hefty aid packages to the Jewish state and with American presidents usually expressing agreement with its policies.

Supporters of Israel regarded it as a strategic asset and America’s key ally in the Middle East, citing shared democratic values and a common outlook.

Since the two-year Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip, which broke out following Hamas’ massive attack in southwestern Israel on October 7, 2023, the consensus in the United States in favor of a strong pro-Israel policy has begun to crumble and may yet unravel in the worst-case scenario.

This astonishing sea change occurred as Israel was accused of genocide during its fierce offensive in Gaza, which resulted in the deaths of upwards of 50,000 Palestinian civilians caught up in the crossfire and some 22,000 Hamas and Islamic Jihad combatants.

In the runup to the midterm elections in the United States on November 3, which resulted in a Democratic sweep, Israel was a divisive issue in a number of races, while President Donald Trump, one of Israel’s best friends, announced that he intended to stop $3.8 billion in annual funding to Israel at the end of 2026.

Trump claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been notified of his momentous decision and was on board with it. Indeed, Netanyahu said earlier this year that Israel has “come of age” and would not require America’s military aid within a decade. He also said that Israel should finance its own weapons purchases, strengthen its internal defence industry, and transition “from aid to partnership.”

Trump’s announcement seemed politically motivated, a tacit acknowledgment that Israel has ceased to be a source of bipartisan consensus and may have become a political liability for him among some Republican voters.

A comment by Vice President JD Vance on November 4 vindicated this analysis.

Vance, who has displayed a certain coolness to Israel, wrote in a social media post that many Republican voters switched sides and turned to Democratic candidates on November 3. Two of the reasons, he said, were the protracted Iran war and the nature of America’s ties with Israel. “The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026,” Vance said on X.

These disaffected voters can be won back, he said, if the United States ends the war with Iran, focuses on reducing inflation and the high cost of living, stays true to the America First credo, and “changes our relationship to Israel.”

Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son and Vance’s friend,  reposted his message and wrote, “Every word of this is 100,100, 100.”

However, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, questioned his assumption that voters who had supported Trump abandoned him over his support for Israel.

“I don’t agree with that because I don’t think that’s where voters are,” Huckabee said. “In fact, if you look at the polls, the only group of people in America that really think that that’s an important issue are the Democrats on the far left. Only 19 percent of Republicans even have that same view.”

Trump, who has staunchly defended the war with Iran, dismissed affordability concerns, and closely aligned himself with Israel and Netanyahu, said he had no problem with Vance’s post-election assessment. He admitted that gas prices, which have sharply increased since the war, contributed to Democratic victories, even in traditional red states.

Vance, a likely contender for the presidency in 2028, has been a constant critic of Israel, despite his acknowledgment that Israel provides important intelligence to the United States.

On the eve of the 2026 war in Iran, the second one in about a year, he raised concerns about U.S. involvement in an overseas war. In public, Vance supported Trump.

Once a foe of Trump, Vance endorsed him in 2023 after being convinced that he would not lead the United States into a foreign war.

During the Iran war, Vance participated in the negotiations to end hostilities. He flew to Pakistan this past April to meet with the Iranians, but his diplomatic mission failed. Most recently, he tried to restart talks with Iran to stave off a resumption of major combat operations.

While Trump endorsed Netanyahu prior to Israel’s general election on October 27, Vance, who is friends with the anti-Zionist podcaster Tucker Carlson, declined to do so.

Last June, Vance criticized members of Israel’s government for opposing Trump’s efforts to resolve the war with Iran. And in July, he said that elements of the Israeli government had tried to influence American opinion to derail negotiations.

“There are some people within their system that we know beyond a shadow of a doubt are manipulating and trying to change American public opinion to keep the war going on indefinitely,” Vance told podcaster Joe Rogan during an interview.

Vance also said that Trump is Israel’s only ally, a comment that prompted Netanyahu to say that Israel has “many friends” around the world.

Last month,Vance said that Washington cannot allow its policies in the Middle East be “subservient” to those of Israel, and must tend to its own interests first.

Vance’s position is shared by some far-right-Republicans, who have voiced concerns about the Palestinian death toll in Gaza and who have complained that Israel dragged the United States into wars with Iran.

Yet, as critical as Vance has been of Israel, there has been mounting hostility toward Israel in Democratic ranks.

Nearly half of the Democrats in the House of Representatives have voted to abolish the sale of offensive weapons to Israel. Democratic leaders have called for a reassessment of Israel’s ten-year memorandum of understanding with the United States, which commits almost $40 billion in military assistance to Israel.

They have also proposed legislation to impose sanctions on Israel for building settlements in the West Bank and tolerating Jewish settler violence there. Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democrats’ Jewish minority leader, has condemned Netanyahu and called for a new Israeli leadership.

Many Democrats now believe that the United States and Israel do not share the same human rights values as it pertains to the treatment of West Bank Palestinians and the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. This is a position that was articulated by Abdul El-Sayed, the new Democratic senator from Michigan and the first Muslim American to be elected to sit in the Senate.

Israel faces another problem as well. The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which are extremely critical of Israel’s policies and perhaps of its very existence, have increased their membership in Congress.

Prior to the midterm elections, the DSA had only two members in the House of Representatives: Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. They are both belong to the Squad, a group of young, outspoken progressives who have challenged U.S. support for Israel, described Israel as an apartheid state, and lambasted Israel’s conduct in Gaza as a genocide.

Since the election, the DSA has sent five more members to Congress: Chris Rabb, Donavan McKinney, Darializa Avila Chevalier, Claire Valdez and Melat Kiros. Chevalier, reportedly a convert to Islam, has demanded the Palestinian “right of return.”

These are words to ponder.

During the 1950s and much of the 1960s, Israel had close relations with France, but the Israeli-Franco alliance collapsed during the Six Day War.

Israel’s special relationship with the United States could also be at risk.