Israel’s Collapse by 2045: Unify or Die

A dystopian future for Tel Aviv as Depicted by Groc

Imagine Tel Aviv’s promenade in 2045: not the vibrant lifeline of cafes, cyclists, and Mediterranean joy, but a smoldering ruin—hotels crushed into rubble, smoke poisoning the sky, the sea lapping at a nation’s remains.

This isn’t a guess; I’ve calculated a 65-80% probability in my paper, Evolutionary Anthropology and the Predicted Collapse of Israel: Cooperation or Extinction.

With over 30 years of anthropological research, I’m armed with complex data showing Israel barreling toward extinction by 2040-2045 unless we unify. Every day, divisive extremist statements marginalize our citizens—36% of 2.1 million Arab Israelis lean toward Hamas, according to my research (Anderson, 2025a), 40% of East Jerusalem youth radicalize (Israel Democracy Institute, 2023), and 60% of 1.4 million Haredi live in poverty (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2022)—while policies herd us into enclaves rather than a community of shared values.

We’re a democracy claiming all 9.9 million citizens are genuinely equal. Still, we can’t keep saying one thing while extremist rhetoric and policies isolate us into enclaves—Druze villages, Muslim towns, Haredi ghettos, settler outposts—contradicting that promise. If we mean it, we’re obligated to build a society where every Jew, Arab, Haredi, and secular Israeli is counted as equal, guided by tzedakah (justice) and tikkun olam (repairing the world), to drive collapse risk to zero. Anyone obstructing this alignment is an enemy of the state. We must unify now—or die.

The numbers paint a grim picture of a nation at risk. My collapse model, built on demographics, economics, and social unrest, projects a 65-80% failure rate by 2045 if we stay this course. Religious Zionists, holding 48-54 coalition seats as reported by Channel 12 on March 4, 2025, push a Jews-only state, draining 1-2 billion USD annually in subsidies, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (2024). Their settlements, now home to 500,000 people (Peace Now, 2024), control 60% of Area C in the West Bank (UN OCHA, 2024), escalating unrest by 25%, per RAND’s 2023 analysis.

Christian Zionism pumps in $1.5 billion yearly from groups like the International Fellowship of Christians and Jews (2023) and underpins $3.8 billion in U.S. aid (Congressional Research Service, 2024). Still, it chains Israel to a volatile 20% stability risk if American support falters, as the World Bank (2022) warns.

The Haredi, comprising 14% of Israel’s 9.9 million citizens (CBS, 2024), burden the economy with only 52% male employment compared to 80% for non-Haredi Jews, costing $10 billion by 2040, according to the Finance Ministry (2023). Arab Israelis, numbering 2.1 million, face 7% unemployment and a 5-fold income gap—1,200 versus 6,000 ILS monthly (CBS, 2024)—fueling radicalization. Policies like building Druze and Muslim enclaves—120,000 Druze in places like Yarka, 58,000 Muslims in Umm al-Fahm—claim to preserve identity, yet leave Druze at 6% unemployment and Muslims with 15-20% radicalization rates (IDI, 2023 estimate), cutting them off from the shared community we need.

This isn’t equality; it’s a democracy failing its promise, with actions contradicting our words and driving collapse.

Extremist rhetoric and policies daily widen these fractures, turning citizens into isolated enclaves rather than equals.

Religious Zionists might claim their settlements cut security costs by 2-3%, as suggested by SIPRI (2023). Still, their inflammatory statements and policies spark a 25% rise in unrest (RAND, 2023) and could push Arab radicalization from 36% to 50%, based on my projections (Anderson, 2025a), burying any gain.

Christian Zionism’s $1.5 billion boosts GDP by 2%, per OECD estimates (2023), yet it risks a 20% stability drop (World Bank, 2022). It fuels a 25% conflict increase by backing settler enclaves (RAND, 2023), undermining the equality of all 9.9 million Israelis.

While Haredi leaders resist integration—only 52% of men work, and 10% of boys study secular subjects (IDI, 2023)—despite efforts like Kama-Tech, which placed 1,000 in high-tech jobs, walling off 1.4 million into enclave-based separation instead of a unified society.

Arab separatists, despite gains like Resolution 922 lifting female employment to 40% (CBS, 2024), cling to isolation, with 40% radicalization in East Jerusalem (IDI, 2023) rejecting unity for 2.1 million, reinforced by policies funneling Muslims into underfunded enclaves. These obstructors defy our democratic claim of equality, making them enemies of the state.

Anthropological evidence proves unity across diversity is the only path to survival. The San tribes achieved a 90% survival rate in harsh conditions by sharing resources (Lee, 1979), Venice thrived for 600 years by weaving a multicultural fabric (Lane, 1973), and Israel’s early kibbutzim slashed poverty by 40% through collective effort (CBS, 1970s). Division into enclaves destroys—Rome lost 30% of its empire to rebellions from neglected provinces (Goldsworthy, 2006), and Carthage forfeited 50% of its territory by excluding its periphery (Miles, 2011). If we say all citizens are equal, tzedakah demands immediate justice for every Israeli—Jew, Arab, Druze, Muslim, Haredi, secular—and tikkun olam insists we repair the rifts tearing us into enclaves—anything less is a lie that risks collapse.

To drive collapse risk to zero, we must unify all 9.9 million citizens with policies matching our democratic words, not isolating enclaves but building a shared community.

Launch Oasis 1 with $25 billion over 10 years, integrating 100,000 families—60% Jews, 40% Arabs and Haredi, including Druze and Muslims—by 2030, scaling to 1 million by 2045, funded by redirecting 1-2 billion USD in subsidies currently misspent on division (CBS, 2024); this cuts poverty by 40%, mirroring kibbutz success (CBS, 1970s), and reduces radicalization by 60%, per Rand’s 2023 findings, boosting stability by 25%, according to World Bank models (2022). Overhaul education with $3 billion annually, doubling Arab and Haredi school funding—currently 30% below Jewish levels (OECD, 2022)—to reach 800,000 students, scaling mixed schools to 50,000 by 2035; this delivers a 45% drop in prejudice (UNESCO, 2021) and cuts radicalization to 10%, strengthening unity by 20%.

Enact a Fair Employment Act with $1 billion in incentives, mandating 25% Arab and Haredi hiring by 2030, closing unemployment gaps from 7% to 4% (CBS, 2024) and boosting GDP by 3% (OECD, 2023), while 20,000 mixed businesses by 2030 reduce tension by 20% (UNDP, 2021), adding 15% economic stability.

Reset governance by capping factions at 35% of seats, stripping religious Zionism’s 48-54 down to 15, and establishing a 500-person Citizens’ Assembly with 25% Arab and Haredi representation, cutting strife by 30% (UNDP, 2021) and lifting trust to 80%, per OECD norms, for a 20% stability gain.

The math is undeniable: a baseline 65-80% collapse risk—tied to 54% civic trust and 15% of GDP on security (IDI/SIPRI, 2024)—drops to zero with complete unity across all citizens.

Oasis 1’s 25% stability gain, education’s 20% unity boost, employment’s 15% economic lift, and governance’s 20% trust increase total an 80% reduction, adjusted to 65-70% for overlap, hitting 0% by 2035.

Half-measures—leaving Druze, Muslims, or Haredi in isolated enclaves—keep us at 20-35%, a failure we can’t afford. Policies must reflect our promise of equality, not contradict it with divisive enclaves or rhetoric.

We can’t keep saying all citizens are equal while extremist statements and policies—like Druze and Muslim enclaves—turn us into isolated factions; Tel Aviv’s promenade burns by 2045, a 65-80% certainty, if we do.

Align them, and collapse hits zero, with 9.9 million Israelis thriving as one community of shared values. Religious Zionism’s marginal 2-3% security edge and Christian Zionism’s 2% GDP bump are nothing against this unity. Obstructors—whether religious Zionists, Christian Zionists, Haredi resisters, or Arab separatists—denying any citizen equality are enemies of the state.

We unify now, matching policies to our democratic words, or die.