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Israel’s Defense: Anti-Anaconda Lessons for Taiwan
In the immediate aftermath of October 1’s Iran’s missile attack on Israel, Taiwan’s diplomatic mission in Israel swiftly issued a strong condemnation. ‘Over 100 missiles fired by Iran gravely undermine regional and global stability. We join peace-loving democracies worldwide in condemning this move and urge all parties to exercise restraint and seek solutions through diplomacy,’ the statement read. Taiwan’s reaction could go beyond mere diplomacy—it might reflect deeper strategic concerns as the island faces its existential threat from China. By aligning with Israel, Taiwan might reinforce its place among democracies confronting authoritarian regimes and potentially use this conflict as an opportunity to draw lessons for its defence.
Taiwan, much like Israel from Iran, faces a persistent threat from a regional power—China, which has been employing a strategy often referred to as the ‘anaconda strategy.’ This involves gradually tightening its military, economic, and diplomatic grip around Taiwan, mirroring how an anaconda encircles its prey before slowly constricting it. The recent Joint Sword 2024B military exercises are a prime example of this approach. These drills, involving a massive show of force with hundreds of aircraft and naval vessels encircling Taiwan, demonstrate China’s capability to blockade the island and isolate it from the international community. The ‘anaconda strategy’ doesn’t just aim at military domination but also seeks to erode Taiwan’s resilience through psychological pressure and economic isolation. As Taiwan observes these tactics from Beijing, its alignment with Israel—another democracy defending itself against existential threats—offers strategic lessons not only in military preparedness but also in fostering alliances with other like-minded nations.
From such a point of view, Taiwan’s support for Israel might not only be a matter of diplomatic solidarity; it could also represent a calculated strategic move. The Israel-Iran conflict could offer valuable learning opportunities for Taiwan, particularly in preparing for a potential military threat from China. One year after the beginning of the war in the Middle East, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense’s primary goal should be identifying weaknesses in Israeli defences that Taiwan might mitigate within its systems. Taiwan may be especially interested in how Israel addresses missile saturation and asymmetric threats—challenges Taiwan could face from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which possesses one of the world’s largest missile arsenals.
Tactical and Psychological Lessons from Gaza
Days after Hamas’s massacre of Israelis on October 7th last year, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense appointed a task force to study the conflict. One instant takeaway, noted Taiwan’s then-defence minister Chiu Kuo-cheng, was the need to improve intelligence to avoid surprise attacks. Others within the ministry emphasised the risk that air defences, such as Taiwan’s, could be overwhelmed by “saturation” missile attacks—similar to the situation faced by Israel with Hezbollah (and Iran). In response, Taiwan could urge its allies, particularly the United States, to enhance intelligence sharing regarding Chinese military movements. Strengthening early warning systems and air defence capabilities might become a top priority to counter potential missile threats from the PLA.
Beyond military tactics, Taiwan could be studying the psychological impact of the Gaza attacks on Israeli society. Taiwanese strategists might focus on how Israel maintained national unity and resilience amid widespread fear and civilian casualties. Taiwan, facing the possibility of an even more structured and powerful assault from China, might need to maintain social cohesion and prevent panic during a military conflict.
Asymmetric warfare and Israel’s defense strategies
Hamas’s coordinated use of rockets, drones, and paraglider-equipped militants in Gaza could catch Taiwan’s attention as a prime example of modern asymmetric warfare. Taiwan could carefully study how Israel’s Iron Dome and other defence systems responded to these diverse threats, as China might eventually employ similar tactics in a future conflict. Like Israel, Taiwan may need to prepare for multi-domain attacks—air, sea/amphibious, and cyber—and could focus on enhancing its defence infrastructure to counter threats across these domains.
Taiwan might also learn from the role that social media and psychological warfare played in the Gaza conflict. The rapid spread of images and videos of attacks on Israeli civilians amplified the chaos, contributing to a broader psychological shock. Taiwan could recognise that, in the event of a Chinese invasion, managing the information environment and maintaining national morale might be as crucial as a military strategy to ensure adequate defence.
Military reform and lessons from Israel
Taiwan may not only draw immediate tactical lessons from Israel but could also consider broader military reforms. In “The Boiling Moat”, a collection of essays edited by Matt Pottinger, former U.S. National Security Council official, experts suggest that Taiwan could adopt lessons from Israel’s conscription system, even proposing the recruitment of Israeli advisors to instil a “warrior ethos.” While Taiwan has recently extended compulsory military service from four months to a year, it still falls short of Israel’s three-year conscription, which also includes women. Israel’s reserve units are frontline-ready, whereas Taiwan’s reserves are primarily tasked with home defence.
Moreover, despite nearly doubling its military budget since 2016, Taiwan’s defence spending remains at 2.6% of GDP—roughly half of Israel’s pre-Gaza war expenditures. As Taiwan continues to fortify its military capabilities, these long-term structural reforms could prove essential to bolstering Taiwan’s resilience and readiness in the face of a potential Chinese invasion.
The broader geopolitical context
Taiwan’s support for Israel could also reflect a broader geopolitical alignment. As China strengthens its partnerships with revisionist regimes like Iran and Russia (or North Korea), Taiwan might be positioning itself within the global “axis of democracies.” This alignment could be more than symbolic—Taiwan might actively bolster ties with nations like the United States, Japan, and South Korea, which have similarly condemned the attacks on Israel. By condemning Iran’s actions, Taiwan could signal its place in the global ideological/governance model divides, aligning itself with democratic allies against authoritarian threats.
Looking ahead: Taiwan’s existential concerns
While tactical lessons from Gaza are invaluable, Taiwan’s overarching concern might remain its ability to preserve sovereignty in the face of Chinese aggression. Like Israel, Taiwan could understand the vital importance of allied support yet might also recognise the need to hold the line until such assistance materialises. Strengthening its military and psychological defences may not just be a priority but an existential necessity. As the global democratic community watches the evolving conflict in Gaza, Taiwan might not only draw lessons but also reaffirm its commitment to resisting authoritarianism, regardless of the odds.