Where Jews and Judaism Meet the Political Road!
Jews and Politics in 2025: An Off-Year Election Analysis
We will be learning a good deal about American political attitudes, even in this off-year election cycle. On November 4th, the American voter will provide us with an assessment of the political temperature in this society.
Next week, what is on the docket for voters?
- Several Congressional Races
- More than 40 Mayoral Elections
- Two States Selecting their Next Governor
- Several Key State Propositions
House Races:
Two special elections for the House of Representatives in Florida, involving that state’s 1st and 6th congressional districts. The Republican nominee, Jimmy Patronis is favored over Democrat, Gary Valmont. Congressman Randy Fine (R) who was initially elected in April of this year is likely to win this special election.
NY Mayoral Race:
While there are a significant number of mayoral campaigns across the nation, no election has received more attention than the New York Mayoral Election. The candidacy Zohran Mamdani has evoked a broad reaction both within general circles and more directly within the Jewish community. The most recent poll of Jewish voters gave Cuomo 42%, Mamdani 38% and Republican Curtis Sliwa 13%. This campaign and now pending election has evoked a significant response from Jewish leaders, even as the polling denotes a broad base of Jewish support for the Democratic Socialist candidate. Should Mr. Mamdani win, one can anticipate significant fall-out over the results.
Andres Spokoiny, writing about the NY election, offered these thoughts:
The coming election is not merely about housing policy or mayoral temperament. It is about whether New York—home to the largest Jewish community outside Israel—will remain anchored in liberal reason or drift toward the populist passions that have undone so many democracies before.
Key Governor Races:
In connection with the two governors’ races, Virginia and New Jersey, Jewish voters could have an impact should either election become somewhat tighter over the final few weeks. With New Jersey having a significant base of Jewish voters, the polling data here will be particularly interesting. Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate, has previously run for this seat and has broad name recognition; he lost to his last bid by only 3% points. The White House has actively supported his candidacy. Ciattarelli has ties to various parts of the New Jersey Jewish community, especially among various Orthodox groups.
Representative Mikie Sherrill is an attorney, former naval officer, and former federal prosecutor, serving as the U.S. representative for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District. While Ms. Sherrill had enjoyed a double-digit lead in the polls, however, more recently the race has become considerably closer.
Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberg is the Democratic nominee, and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is the Republican nominee. If elected, Earle-Sears would become the first Jamaican-born female governor in U.S. history. Both Spanberger and Earle-Sears won their respective parties’ nominations unopposed. Whoever wins the general election will be sworn in as the 75th governor of Virginia on January 17, 2026. This is the first gubernatorial election in Virginia in which both major party nominees are female. Virginia is one of eighteen states that has yet to select a woman to be its governor.
Where other elections are reporting significantly increased campaign spending, the Virginia race may be an anomaly, just over $16 million has been donated from PACs on both sides of the aisle, a notable decrease from the $40.5 million donated in 2021 and the $36 million donated in 2017, although money is still coming in. Currently, the Democratic candidate is holding a 9-to 13-point advantage, based on the latest polls.
State Propositions:
California Proposition 50, which would return control over redistricting to the legislature has a 53% approval rating in the latest polls. Should this measure pass, Democrats are committed to creating 5 additional “Democratic” majority Congressional districts designed to offset efforts elsewhere by Republican legislators to establish more GOP seats in various “Red States”. To date, over $130 million has been raised by both supporters and opponents of this measure.
Reflections:
Even during this “off-year” election cycle, there are significant and real implications for Jewish voters. Present, and not just in the New York mayoral race, are issues of profound and specific importance to Jews.
The very health of this democracy is seemingly being tested daily and the electoral outcomes next month will surely add an additional layer. While the President is not on the ballot this fall, his policies and his personality are in play.
The outcomes here will serve as the basis of campaigns for 2026, and the players that emerge victorious will likely have some impact on the broader political story moving ahead.
We will be learning a good deal about American political attitudes, even in this off-year election cycle. On November 4th, the American voter will provide us with an assessment of the political temperature in this society.
Next week, what is on the docket for voters?
- Several Congressional Races
- More than 40 Mayoral Elections
- Two States Selecting their Next Governor
- Several Key State Propositions
House Races:
Two special elections for the House of Representatives in Florida, involving that state’s 1st and 6th congressional districts. The Republican nominee, Jimmy Patronis is favored over Democrat, Gary Valmont. Congressman Randy Fine (R) who was initially elected in April of this year is likely to win this special election.
NY Mayoral Race:
While there are a significant number of mayoral campaigns across the nation, no election has received more attention than the New York Mayoral Election. The candidacy Zohran Mamdani has evoked a broad reaction both within general circles and more directly within the Jewish community. The most recent poll of Jewish voters gave Cuomo 42%, Mamdani 38% and Republican Curtis Sliwa 13%. This campaign and now pending election has evoked a significant response from Jewish leaders, even as the polling denotes a broad base of Jewish support for the Democratic Socialist candidate. Should Mr. Mamdani win, one can anticipate significant fall-out over the results.
Andres Spokoiny, writing about the NY election, offered these thoughts:
The coming election is not merely about housing policy or mayoral temperament. It is about whether New York—home to the largest Jewish community outside Israel—will remain anchored in liberal reason or drift toward the populist passions that have undone so many democracies before.
Key Governor Races:
In connection with the two governors’ races, Virginia and New Jersey, Jewish voters could have an impact should either election become somewhat tighter over the final few weeks. With New Jersey having a significant base of Jewish voters, the polling data here will be particularly interesting. Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate, has previously run for this seat and has broad name recognition; he lost to his last bid by only 3% points. The White House has actively supported his candidacy. Ciattarelli has ties to various parts of the New Jersey Jewish community, especially among various Orthodox groups.
Representative Mikie Sherrill is an attorney, former naval officer, and former federal prosecutor, serving as the U.S. representative for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District. While Ms. Sherrill had enjoyed a double-digit lead in the polls, however, more recently the race has become considerably closer.
Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberg is the Democratic nominee, and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is the Republican nominee. If elected, Earle-Sears would become the first Jamaican-born female governor in U.S. history. Both Spanberger and Earle-Sears won their respective parties’ nominations unopposed. Whoever wins the general election will be sworn in as the 75th governor of Virginia on January 17, 2026. This is the first gubernatorial election in Virginia in which both major party nominees are female. Virginia is one of eighteen states that has yet to select a woman to be its governor.
Where other elections are reporting significantly increased campaign spending, the Virginia race may be an anomaly, just over $16 million has been donated from PACs on both sides of the aisle, a notable decrease from the $40.5 million donated in 2021 and the $36 million donated in 2017, although money is still coming in. Currently, the Democratic candidate is holding a 9-to 13-point advantage, based on the latest polls.
State Propositions:
California Proposition 50, which would return control over redistricting to the legislature has a 53% approval rating in the latest polls. Should this measure pass, Democrats are committed to creating 5 additional “Democratic” majority Congressional districts designed to offset efforts elsewhere by Republican legislators to establish more GOP seats in various “Red States”. To date, over $130 million has been raised by both supporters and opponents of this measure.
Reflections:
Even during this “off-year” election cycle, there are significant and real implications for Jewish voters. Present, and not just in the New York mayoral race, are issues of profound and specific importance to Jews.
The very health of this democracy is seemingly being tested daily and the electoral outcomes next month will surely add an additional layer. While the President is not on the ballot this fall, his policies and his personality are in play.
The outcomes here will serve as the basis of campaigns for 2026, and the players that emerge victorious will likely have some impact on the broader political story moving ahead.