JOKER POKER: When the Joker Leads the Game — Geopolitics in the Age of Trump 2.0

In the traditional lexicon of diplomacy, to “play the joker card” implies a sudden, unpredictable move that changes the terms of the game — a disruptive act, a calculated surprise, a refusal to follow the rules. It is not the role of the status quo power, but of those seeking to alter the balance. Yet in 2025, that joker card is no longer played from the periphery. It now sits in the centre of global power — in the Oval Office.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has not simply disrupted global diplomacy; it has upended its very logic. The United States, long the architect of order, now thrives on disorder. The joker is no longer a wild card — it is the house dealer.

The United States: From Arbiter to Agitator

Under Trump 2.0, American foreign policy is not defined by doctrine but by impulse. Alliances are transactional, loyalty is monetised, and strategic commitments fluctuate with political theatrics. NATO is treated less as a pillar of collective security than as a subscription model. Climate accords are dismissed as constraints on American industry. The WTO and UN are framed not as forums for coordination, but as bureaucratic irrelevancies.

Washington no longer defends the rules-based order — it deconstructs it. This has created not a power vacuum, but a power paradox: the United States remains the most potent actor in the system, yet its strategic unpredictability renders it unreliable. Its power is intimidating, but its intentions are unknowable.

This volatility has emboldened other powers to act with impunity — and encouraged middle powers to recalibrate.

Strategic Opportunists: Navigating the Flux

Across the globe, a new class of geopolitical hedgers is emerging.

India has mastered the art of parallel alignment. It courts U.S. capital, defers to no alliance, and plays BRICS as a developmental lever while maintaining strategic ambiguity on Ukraine and Taiwan.
Turkey weaponises its geography to extract concessions from all sides — NATO, Russia, and regional rivals alike.
Israel, emboldened by the Trump administration’s permissiveness, acts with an unprecedented degree of autonomy in its regional theatre.

Even America’s traditional partners are adapting.
France and Germany speak increasingly of “strategic autonomy,” though Berlin remains paralysed by its dependence on legacy industries and policy caution.
The UK’s post-Brexit identity crisis continues, caught between nostalgia for global leadership and the reality of diminished leverage.

The European Union itself is fragmented: Orban’s Hungary openly defies consensus, Poland wavers between transatlantic loyalty and nationalist self-interest, and Brussels is too procedural to be political in a world driven by improvisation.

China: Patient, Pressured, and Poised

China, under Xi Jinping, approaches this new order with both apprehension and opportunity. Economically bruised by real estate volatility, youth unemployment, and demographic decline, Beijing recognises the danger of strategic overreach. Yet Trump’s unilateralism also opens up space for China to redefine itself — not as a revolutionary power, but as a pragmatic counterweight.

With the United States retreating from multilateralism, China strengthens its presence in forums like BRICS+, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the G77+China. Its Belt and Road Initiative, while recalibrated, continues to serve as a vehicle for influence across the Global South.

China is not eager to play the joker card. Instead, it profits from the joker being in play — offering stability, infrastructure, and digital integration to regions disillusioned with the volatility of the West.

Russia, Iran, and the Axis of Disruption

For actors already accustomed to geopolitical marginalisation, Trump’s return is a strategic dividend.

Russia sees a distracted and divided West as a green light. Sanctions fatigue, election interference, and energy weaponisation continue as tools of asymmetric warfare. Trump’s ambivalence on Ukraine and NATO weakens European resolve and gives Putin space to shape the post-war settlement on his own terms.

Iran, meanwhile, interprets Trump’s re-election as vindication. The breakdown of nuclear diplomacy has shifted Tehran’s calculus toward brinkmanship. Proxies are rearmed, the nuclear threshold is tested, and regional escalation becomes a bargaining chip rather than a risk.

Elsewhere, Serbia, Venezuela, and other revisionist-minded states are refining their own version of ambiguity — undermining regional norms while claiming legitimacy through transactional diplomacy.

Collapse as Joker: Fragile States, Systemic Shocks

Not all joker cards are strategic. Some emerge from institutional collapse.

Pakistan’s economic instability threatens not just its own sovereignty, but regional nuclear security.
Sudan’s descent into chaos is generating refugee flows, militia proliferation, and regional contagion.
Even within the West, populist regimes may become victims of their own contradictions, weakening democratic checks and deepening institutional fatigue.

These black swans — unplanned, unmanaged, and often misunderstood — inject volatility from the bottom up, reminding the world that not all disruptions are deliberate.

The Rise of New Domains and Digital Disruption

Geopolitics in 2025 is no longer confined to territory or ideology. It now extends into domains where governance lags behind ambition.

AI is weaponised not just in warfare, but in information. Disinformation campaigns, algorithmic manipulation, and deepfake diplomacy undermine trust in institutions and blur the line between public opinion and psychological warfare.

In space, commercial competition outpaces regulation. Mega-constellations of satellites, cyber-vulnerable launch systems, and orbital militarisation raise the risk of accidental escalation in a domain with no enforceable norms.

These new frontiers are not sideshows — they are battlegrounds.

Risk Management: Surviving in a Joker’s World

In the absence of predictable leadership, states are turning to resilience as strategy.

Hedging replaces loyalty.
Minilateral groupings — from the Quad to I2U2 to ASEAN+ frameworks — offer nimble alternatives to bloated institutions.
Supply chain diversification, digital sovereignty, and dual-use infrastructure are becoming the new tools of statecraft.

Even corporate actors are entering the fray, using AI risk modelling, cyber insurance, and cross-border asset mobility to mitigate exposure to geopolitical shocks.

In this world, survival depends not on power, but on agility.

Conclusion: When the Joker Becomes the Game

The global order in 2025 is not post-American. It is post-predictable. The joker is not just part of the deck — it leads the hand. Trump’s America has reframed international politics as a game without rules, where loyalty is fleeting, and improvisation is power.

The challenge for states is no longer how to preserve the order — it is how to operate within its absence. Institutions will adapt or atrophy. Norms will be tested or ignored. The winners will not be those who hold the strongest cards — but those who can play the most flexible hand.

In this casino of chaos, every player has a choice: fold, hedge, or raise the stakes. The joker, it turns out, is not just a wildcard — it’s the only card some players have left.