Kuwait Paradox: Why The Gulf’s Most Liberal Autocracy Rejects Ties With Israel
In the wake of the Abraham Accords and the growing trend of normalization between Israel and Arab states, the small emirate of Kuwait stands out as a notable exception that puzzles many observers. Since its liberation in the First Gulf War by a US-led coalition, Kuwait has been one of Washington’s closest regional allies. Being considered the most liberal autocracy in the Middle East, the emirate presents itself as a natural candidate for normalization.
Indeed, just three days after the signing of the Abraham Accords, President Trump stated that Kuwait was likely to be the next country to formally recognize Israel. Four years and three Emirs later, Kuwait is still as far away from a diplomatic rapprochement as it was back then. Why has President Trump’s prediction not materialized, and is there any hope that it will in the near future?
Palestinian Minority in Kuwait
Interestingly, there used to be a sizeable Jewish diaspora in Kuwait up to the 1920s which gained prominence through trade and jewelry. Today, however, there is practically no Jewish presence in Kuwait. Another minority plays a much more significant role in the tiny emirate: about 80,000 Palestinians living in Kuwait strongly shape the public discourse. Many experts see the pronounced Palestinian diaspora in Kuwait as a major reason why the Kuwaiti public rejects any normalization with Israel – more so than in other Gulf states.
However, the Palestinian diaspora alone cannot explain Kuwait’s particular attitude. Other Gulf states also have significant Palestinian minorities. The United Arab Emirates, for example, are home to over 200,000 Palestinians – yet the UAE signed the Abraham Accords four years ago. Why, then, do the Palestinians shape public opinion and foreign policy more strongly in Kuwait than in the UAE?
Kuwaiti Legislative Power
Kuwait operates under a unique semi-democratic system, where power is shared between a freely elected parliament and the ruling royal family. The Emir, traditionally drawn from the Al-Sabah dynasty, holds substantial executive authority, while the parliament exercises legislative powers, including the ability to question ministers and vote on policy decisions. Neither can a government can be appointed, nor laws enacted without the parliament’s consent.
No other Gulf emirate has a democratically elected parliament that is as powerful as Kuwait’s. As a result, the executive depends on cooperation with parliament in many matters. Thus, anti-Israel sentiment among the Kuwaiti population has a greater influence on political events through the parliament than, for example, in the fully autocratic UAE.
A recent development adds another layer to this complexity: in May, the Emir dissolved the parliament citing its impeding on economic growth as the primary reason. This move reflects the tense political climate in the country, and while such dissolutions are not uncommon in Kuwaiti politics, it underscores the delicate balance between the monarchy and elected representatives. With Parliament dissolved, the executive may have slightly more leeway in policy decisions, though public sentiment—especially on an issue as charged as Israel—still wields considerable influence.
Royal Sympathies for Palestinians
Kuwait’s relationship with Palestinians took a hit in the First Gulf War. During the 1990-1991 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the PLO under Yasser Arafat controversially supported Saddam Hussein’s regime. This move, seen as a betrayal by many Kuwaitis, led to a deep rupture in Kuwait’s relations with Palestinians. In the aftermath of the war, Kuwait expelled a large portion of its Palestinian population—an estimated 200,000 people—who had lived and worked in the country for decades. This mass expulsion led Kuwait to distance itself from the Palestinian leadership for the following years, though it still maintained its broader commitment to the Palestinian cause.
Kuwait’s Al-Sabah royal family has long harbored personal sympathies for the Palestinian cause. The long-time Emir Sabah was known as the ‘big brother of the Palestinian people’, while his successor Nawaf, half-brother of the late Sabah, shared his sympathies toward the Palestinians. Nawaf was a recipient of the Grand Collar of the State of Palestine, the highest civilian order offered. The ‘Al-Quds Shield,’ an award honoring support of the Palestinian cause, was presented to his great-aunt Souad Al-Sabah, marking the first time it has been awarded to a woman.
The current Emir, Mishal, only entered office late last year at the age of 83. Under his predecessor Nawaf, Mishal was head of Kuwait’s intelligence service and as such is seen as part of the old guard. Given his age, Emir Mishal is generally perceived as a bit of a placeholder and not expected to take on big policy changes.
The recent changes within the Al-Sabah family, however, have raised the possibility that Kuwait’s longstanding stance on Israel may not be as immutable as it once seemed. Some of the younger members of the family and political elites have hinted at the need for Kuwait to reassess its foreign policy in light of shifting geopolitical dynamics. If Saudi-Israeli rapprochement gained momentum again and the wider region shifts toward cooperation with Israel, Kuwait’s next Emir would face increased pressure to reconsider the emirate’s stance on Israel.
The Path Forward
While the recent shifts in Kuwaiti politics and within the royal family suggest a possible re-evaluation of foreign policy, significant obstacles remain in place. Any change in Kuwait’s position on Israel would likely come slowly, if at all, given the country’s political structure and strong public opposition. Kuwait is a country where popular sentiment, expressed through its parliamentary system, holds significant weight, particularly on issues as emotive as the Palestinian cause.
For now, Kuwait’s commitment to Palestine continues to define its foreign policy approach, even as regional dynamics shift. Whether the internal realignments within the royal family will eventually lead to a change in this stance remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Kuwait will continue to navigate a delicate balance between internal political pressures and external diplomatic challenges.
As the region continues to evolve, all eyes will be on Kuwait to see how its political system and royal family handle the increasing pressures of a changing Middle East. For now, the status quo remains intact, but the future may yet hold unexpected turns.