Likud’s 2026 Primaries

The Likud primaries of August 17 were not simply an internal party contest. They were a referendum on the direction of the Israeli right after four of the most consequential years in the history of the State of Israel. Since the last election, Israel has endured October 7, the longest war in its history, fighting in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran and Yemen, unprecedented internal political division, a battle over judicial reform, an unresolved fight over Haredi military service, a hostage crisis, economic pressure, international isolation and an increasingly hostile global environment.

Likud members therefore were not simply choosing politicians. They were choosing which version of the Israeli right should lead the country into the next era. And the provisional results contain a very clear message. The Likud membership has rewarded politicians associated with security, judicial reform, nationalism, strong government and ideological confrontation. At the same time, several veteran ministers who entered the primaries as major national figures have fallen substantially. As of the morning after the vote, with roughly 80 percent of polling stations counted, the provisional nationwide order stood approximately as follows:

1. Eli Cohen
2. Amir Ohana
3. Yariv Levin
4. Miri Regev
5. Ofir Katz
6. Yoav Kisch
7. Miki Zohar
8. Almog Cohen
9. David Amsalem
10. Amichai Chikli
11. Moshe Saada
12. Tally Gotliv
13. Shlomo Karhi
14. David Bitan
15. Boaz Bismuth
16. Nir Barkat

The exact order may still move before the final count is certified. In addition, Benjamin Netanyahu remains number one as Likud leader, while reserved places and representation slots will substantially rearrange the final Knesset list.

Eli Cohen The Biggest Winner

Eli Cohen emerging at the top of the nationwide primary is significant. Cohen has quietly accumulated one of the broadest ministerial resumes inside Likud. He has served as foreign minister, economy minister, intelligence minister and, most recently, energy and infrastructure minister. He sits in the security cabinet and has consistently positioned himself as a relatively disciplined Netanyahu loyalist who combines economic credentials with an increasingly hawkish security posture. His greatest accomplishment during this government has arguably been his ability to remain relevant across multiple strategic portfolios without becoming consumed by the internal Likud wars that damaged several rivals.

As foreign minister, Cohen focused heavily on expanding Israel’s diplomatic relationships and continuing the Abraham Accords approach. As energy minister, he has pushed Israeli natural gas development, energy independence and regional energy cooperation. He has also taken a hard line toward Iran and against UNRWA infrastructure in Jerusalem. His weakness is that he has not yet become identified with one historic transformation. Cohen has competence, experience and strong party support, but he cannot point to a completed strategic achievement on the scale of eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat, normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia or transforming Israel’s energy infrastructure.

That should become his challenge in the next government. His political future will likely revolve around three objectives: strengthening Israel’s energy independence, expanding regional normalization particularly with Saudi Arabia and other Arab governments, and maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. His first-place result makes him not merely another minister. It places him firmly inside the conversation over who eventually inherits the senior leadership of Likud after Netanyahu.

Amir Ohana and Yariv Levin, Two Very Different Faces of Likud

Amir Ohana’s rise to the top tier is striking. As Knesset speaker, Ohana has largely avoided the day-to-day ministerial failures that can damage politicians managing difficult portfolios. He has instead become one of Likud’s most recognizable national representatives. He previously served as justice minister and public security minister and became Israel’s first openly gay Knesset speaker, an important political symbol for a right-wing party often caricatured internationally as socially monolithic. 

Ohana’s strength has been political presentation, loyalty to the nationalist camp and his ability to represent Likud internationally. His weakness is almost the reverse of Eli Cohen’s: it is difficult to point to a major policy transformation personally associated with his speakership. His challenge in the coming term will be to demonstrate that his popularity can translate into executive leadership. If he eventually seeks a major ministry or even future Likud leadership, he will need a policy record matching his political popularity. 

Yariv Levin is an entirely different case. Levin is probably the clearest ideological winner of the primary. He entered the current government promising a fundamental restructuring of Israel’s judicial system. In January 2023 he unveiled the judicial reform program that sought to change judicial appointments, limit judicial intervention and restore greater power to elected institutions. The reform became one of the most consequential domestic political battles in Israeli history. Some elements were advanced. In 2025 the Knesset passed changes to the Judicial Selection Committee that increase political influence over appointments and are scheduled to take effect after the next election. But the broader reform Levin originally envisioned was never completed.

From the perspective of Levin and the ideological right, that is unfinished business. From the perspective of his critics, the reform produced enormous social division and constitutional instability. Either way, Levin cannot honestly claim that the project he launched in 2023 has been completed. Indeed, senior Likud figures are already saying openly that the next government should continue it. Coalition chairman Ofir Katz said just before the primary that the coalition had been “too soft” on judicial reform and that after the election they intend to go further. Levin’s mission for the next term is therefore obvious: finish the judicial restructuring. His strong primary performance shows that although the reform damaged Likud among parts of the general electorate, it remains deeply popular within the ideological party base.

Miri Regev, Still One of Likud’s Most Powerful Political Machines

Miri Regev remains remarkably durable. After years in government, endless political battles and constant criticism, she again finished near the top. That tells us something about Likud politics: Regev understands the party membership. Her strength has always been her ability to communicate directly with the Likud base, particularly voters from Israel’s geographic and socioeconomic periphery. As transportation minister she has overseen one of the state’s largest ministries, responsible for roads, rail, ports and public transportation. Her record, however, is mixed. Israel continues to suffer from severe congestion, overloaded transportation infrastructure and major public frustration with rail and road systems. 

Some long-term infrastructure projects have advanced, but the average Israeli does not yet experience the transportation revolution promised by successive governments. Her next term therefore cannot simply be about announcements. Regev needs measurable delivery: faster rail expansion, stronger transportation links to the Negev and Galilee, improved road safety, reduced congestion and better connectivity between Israel’s center and periphery. Politically, she will also remain one of Netanyahu’s strongest defenders and one of the most visible voices arguing that Likud represents Israelis ignored by the country’s cultural and media elites.

Ofir Katz, The Man Who Kept the Coalition Together

Ofir Katz may be one of the least internationally famous names near the top, but his result is extremely important. As coalition chairman, Katz spent four years performing one of the most difficult jobs in Israeli politics, keeping a deeply complicated coalition functioning through war, internal rebellions, judicial reform, budget crises and the Haredi draft dispute. Whatever one thinks of this government, its survival is itself politically significant. Israel has suffered through repeated elections and unstable coalitions for years. This government is approaching the completion of a full term, something no Israeli government had achieved in decades and Katz has been central to maintaining parliamentary discipline.

His weakness is that coalition survival sometimes came at the expense of policy clarity. The government repeatedly delayed hard decisions, particularly on Haredi enlistment, partly because keeping the coalition alive required compromises. That cannot continue indefinitely. Katz has already indicated what he wants next, a stronger judicial reform effort after the election. But Likud voters also increasingly demand a genuine solution on equal military service. More than 80 percent of Likud voters surveyed want increased Haredi enlistment. Katz’s challenge will therefore be maintaining coalition discipline without allowing coalition mathematics to override the interests of Likud voters.

Yoav Kisch, Education Is His Test

Education Minister Yoav Kisch remains high enough to demonstrate continued strength inside Likud. He deserves credit for managing an education system through wartime disruption, including displaced communities, school closures and repeated security emergencies. His ministry also moved toward a more Jewish-national educational identity, including guidelines ensuring access to tefillin in state schools and efforts to prevent universities from using taxpayer-funded institutions as political organizations. But education outcomes remain a serious weakness.

Partial 2025 national assessment data showed alarming science results among ninth graders, and Kisch faced criticism after his ministry restricted publication of some assessment information. This is where ideology must meet competence. The next education minister cannot simply fight political battles with universities. Israel needs better mathematics, science, English, technology and Jewish education. Kisch’s next-term mission should be an education recovery program focused on academic achievement, teacher quality, discipline, Zionist education and preparing Israeli children for an increasingly technological economy.

Miki Zohar, Culture as a National Battlefield

Culture and Sports Minister Miki Zohar has emerged stronger than many expected. Zohar has made his ministry explicitly ideological. He has argued that Israeli taxpayers should not finance cultural institutions or productions that he believes delegitimize the country or defame Israeli soldiers. His decision to halt government funding for the Ophir Awards after the film The Sea won the top prize became the clearest example of that philosophy. Supporters see this as common sense: the Israeli state should not subsidize cultural attacks against itself.

Critics see political interference in artistic freedom. Either way, Zohar has actually pursued the position he promised. His failure is that Israeli culture and sport continue to face major financial pressures after years of war, international boycotts and reduced activity. His next challenge should be building a positive cultural vision rather than merely fighting hostile cultural institutions: support Israeli artists, strengthen Jewish and Zionist cultural production, expand sports infrastructure and project Israeli culture abroad.

Almog Cohen, The Primary’s Political Earthquake

Almog Cohen finishing this high may be the biggest ideological surprise. He was not elected to the current Knesset as a Likud member at all. Cohen entered parliament with Otzma Yehudit and became known as an outspoken security hawk from the Negev. After breaking politically with Itamar Ben-Gvir, he eventually moved closer to Netanyahu and was allowed to compete in the Likud primary despite having only recently joined the party. His eighth-place showing therefore represents a major message from Likud members.

They want harder security voices. Cohen has pushed tougher action against incitement, proposed restrictions on enemy flags and advocated aggressive measures against terrorism and radicalization. His weakness is experience. He has never managed a major national ministry, economic portfolio or large government bureaucracy. His next task should be to prove that he can move from protest politics to governance. For Cohen, the next four years need to be about the Negev, internal security, sovereignty and strengthening Israeli control in areas where state authority has weakened.

David Amsalem, The Voice of the Likud Base

Dudi Amsalem remains one of the most recognizable populist voices inside Likud. His appeal is straightforward: he speaks in the language of Likud members who believe Israel’s bureaucracy, judiciary, senior civil service and media have historically been controlled by an establishment hostile to the right. His supporters see him as someone willing to fight that establishment. His critics argue that he has blurred the line between reforming institutions and politicizing them.

That criticism became especially strong around his defense of political appointments and his attacks on elements of the professional civil service. Amsalem’s next-term challenge therefore is important. If Likud genuinely wants greater democratic accountability inside the government, it needs to build a professional alternative not simply replace one patronage system with another. Amsalem could play a major role in civil-service reform, government efficiency and reducing bureaucracy. But it has to produce better government, not merely more political control.

Amichai Chikli, Israel’s Warrior Against Global Antisemitism

Amichai Chikli has transformed the Diaspora Affairs Ministry into something significantly more political and ideological than it once was. He has focused heavily on antisemitism, radical Islam, foreign influence and anti-Israel networks abroad. His ministry has published extensive reporting on antisemitism and the failure of social-media platforms to remove antisemitic material. Chikli has also aggressively attacked European governments that he believes have failed to confront antisemitism and Islamist extremism.

His controversial side is equally clear. He has cultivated relationships with European right-wing populists and figures such as Tommy Robinson, creating conflicts with established Jewish organizations that argue some of those allies have their own extremist histories. His challenge for the next term is therefore strategic: build a worldwide coalition against antisemitism without alienating major Jewish communities Israel needs. His ministry should also focus more heavily on countering foreign-funded anti-Israel campaigns, Islamist networks, online radicalization and anti-Zionist propaganda on Western campuses.

Moshe Saada, The Institutional Fighter

Moshe Saada has built much of his political identity around reforming Israel’s law-enforcement and prosecution establishment. A former senior official in the Police Internal Investigations Department, Saada has become one of Likud’s strongest critics of the legal bureaucracy. He has pushed legislation changing the structure and authority of the Police Internal Investigations Department and has aligned himself closely with the broader right-wing battle against what Likud supporters see as excessive power in unelected legal institutions.

His weakness is that institutional reform has become deeply politicized. Saada needs to demonstrate that the objective is genuinely cleaner government and stronger accountability rather than merely transferring power from officials hostile to the coalition toward officials friendly to it. He has also spoken favorably about Netanyahu’s idea of a broader national government.

Tally Gotliv, Popularity Without Enough Legislative Delivery

Tally Gotliv is one of the most unusual politicians in Likud. She has built an enormous public following because she says things other Likud MKs are unwilling to say. She attacks the attorney general, security establishment, opposition and judicial system with almost no political restraint. That has made her extremely popular with parts of the Likud grassroots.

But even fellow Likud politicians have criticized her for producing more confrontation than legislation, questioning the depth of her parliamentary accomplishments. Her primary result demonstrates that her style has real political demand. But the next Knesset will test whether she can turn rhetoric into law. If Gotliv wants to become something more than one of Israel’s most effective political communicators, she needs a legislative portfolio and measurable reforms she can personally claim.

The Surprising Loser: Nir Barkat

Perhaps the greatest fall belongs to Nir Barkat. Barkat entered national politics after a successful period as mayor of Jerusalem and for years was considered one of the most plausible future leaders of Likud. He currently serves as economy minister. Yet in the provisional count he fell to approximately 16th place. That is extraordinary for someone once considered Netanyahu’s potential successor. Part of the explanation may be internal party distrust.

A recent report alleged that Barkat had participated in an effort to replace Netanyahu immediately after October 7, although Barkat’s allies denied the characterization. More broadly, Barkat has struggled to transform the Economy Ministry into a defining national achievement. Israel has endured inflation, high living costs, war-related business disruption and enormous pressure on small businesses. Barkat entered office promising a stronger economy and more competition. The fact that Likud members pushed him this far down the list suggests that they do not believe enough was delivered. His comeback must therefore be based on economics rather than political maneuvering: reducing the cost of living, strengthening small businesses, attracting investment, expanding Israel’s technology sector and accelerating economic recovery after the war.

And Then There Is Israel Katz

Israel Katz requires special explanation because his position is not directly comparable with the other candidates. Netanyahu and Likud’s internal institutions arranged a guaranteed place for Katz, so he did not face the same risk as ordinary nationwide candidates. The decision was controversial inside Likud, with Tally Gotliv publicly attacking the guaranteed placement as disrespectful to party voters. As defense minister, Katz enters the election carrying perhaps the heaviest portfolio of anyone outside Netanyahu.

His record includes Israel’s multi-front confrontation with Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and other regional threats. His next-term mission will be measured in brutally simple terms: Can Israel permanently change the security reality created by October 7? That means Gaza cannot simply return to October 6 conditions. Hezbollah cannot simply rebuild the same threat on Israel’s northern border. Iran cannot simply regenerate the strategic capabilities Israel fought to destroy. And the Israeli public cannot be asked to accept another doctrine built around containment. That will be Katz’s test.

What the Likud Primary Actually Says

The deeper message of this primary is that Likud members have moved rightward and become more ideological. Levin performed strongly. Almog Cohen surged. Chikli, Saada, Gotliv and Karhi remain prominent. Moderate or managerial figures did not automatically receive the same reward. That creates both an opportunity and a danger for Netanyahu. The opportunity is obvious: he now has a list filled with politicians prepared to fight aggressively on security, judicial reform, sovereignty and national identity. The danger is electoral.

Recent polling indicates that the Likud membership is to the right of many ordinary Likud voters. More than half of Likud voters surveyed recently said they preferred a more centrist future government, while only around one-third of registered Likud members expressed that preference. More than 80 percent of Likud voters want increased Haredi military enlistment.

That means Netanyahu has to accomplish something politically difficult. He has to preserve the ideological strength of Likud while rebuilding trust among traditional center-right Israelis who abandoned the party after October 7. Netanyahu himself has already said he wants to create a broad national government after the election rather than simply recreate the existing coalition. That may become the defining strategy of Likud’s 2026 campaign.

The next Likud campaign cannot simply say, “Vote for us because the alternative is worse.” October 7 changed that. Likud has governed Israel for most of the past generation. It therefore carries responsibility not only for Israel’s achievements but also for failures that happened on its watch. The party needs a clear contract with the Israeli voter. First, security. Hamas must never again govern Gaza as an armed terrorist state. Hezbollah must not return to Israel’s border. Iran must not be allowed to rebuild a strategic nuclear or missile threat under the protection of another temporary international agreement.

Second, the hostages and the aftermath of October 7. Israel needs a national reckoning over the failures that led to the massacre military, intelligence and political. Third, military service. The current situation in which reservists repeatedly leave their jobs, wives and children for months of combat while large sectors remain outside meaningful national service is becoming politically unsustainable. Likud voters themselves overwhelmingly recognize this. Fourth, judicial reform. The party must decide what it actually wants. If Levin and Katz intend to complete the reform, they should present the exact legislation to voters before election day instead of asking Israelis to discover the plan after the government is formed.

Fifth, the cost of living. Housing, groceries, transportation and taxes cannot remain secondary issues simply because Israel is at war. A strong Jewish state must also be a state where young families can afford to build their lives. Sixth, the Negev, Galilee, Judea and Samaria. The next government should make sovereignty, infrastructure and population distribution genuine strategic policies rather than election slogans. Seventh, Jewish and Zionist identity. Israel is not simply another Western democracy sitting somewhere in the Mediterranean. It is the nation-state of the Jewish people. Its schools, cultural institutions, public diplomacy and immigration policy should reflect that unapologetically.

This Likud primary did not produce a quiet, technocratic slate. It produced a fighting slate. It rewarded Eli Cohen’s broad competence, Levin’s ideological persistence, Ohana’s popularity, Regev’s connection to the grassroots, Katz’s coalition management and a new generation of aggressive nationalist politicians such as Almog Cohen, Chikli, Saada and Gotliv. But primaries are the easy part. Likud members have now told their politicians who they trust. On October 27, the country will ask a much harder question: “What did you actually accomplish with the power we gave you, and why should we give it to you again?”

For Netanyahu and Likud, that is the election. The answer cannot only be the achievements of the past. It must be a credible vision for what Israel becomes after everything it has endured since October 7. A stronger border. A stronger military. A stronger economy. A stronger Jewish identity. A government capable of reforming itself as aggressively as it seeks to reform the institutions around it. And, above all, a State of Israel that never again mistakes temporary quiet for security.