The Blogs: Missiles and Psychology - Iran's Tools of Terror | Rocky Abramson

Israel is expecting a U.S. attack on Iran shortly, which will likely lead to Iran firing missiles at Israel. Don’t bother looking for the logic—it isn’t important, at least not for the purposes of this blog.

Terrorism exists in Israel, and worldwide, when individuals believe they themselves can be harmed by an act of terror. In this case, missiles will be the chosen tool.

If only military installations were targeted, civilians located more than a few kilometers away would have relatively little reason for fear. For this reason, while Iran will likely target strategic and military sites, urban centers such as Tel Aviv will also be on the list. I mention Tel Aviv because it is a large target with a high population density, and because it holds strategic value through its military assets as well as its financial and cultural hubs.

To be responsible, I must qualify this by saying that even interceptions can be deadly. Missiles can be diverted without detonating, falling short or long, left or right of their intended targets. Even when an interceptor detonates the warhead, missile fragments fall from high altitude and can be fatal.

Bomb shelters and reinforced security rooms are the safest places to be when a missile alert is sounded. A direct hit from a ballistic missile will not protect anyone in a shelter; however, being in a shelter more than 100 meters or so from the point of impact will almost certainly save lives.

Israel’s early warning system for imminent missile attacks is a tremendous help—both technically and psychologically. People generally have time either to enter a shelter or security room, or to distance themselves from dangerous locations and lie down. A “dangerous” location could include a potential target, a high-rise building, a gas station, or any place that, if struck, could turn someone into “collateral damage.”

When convenient (a term dear to the hearts of my British friends), try to spend time in safe areas with family or friends, who are often a valuable source of emotional support.

Anxiety is part and parcel of being on the wrong end of a missile attack. More accurately, the emotion is fear, since there is a real and immediate threat. Anxiety is a more appropriate term for those farther from potential targets, or for those anticipating events that have not yet occurred. Reactions vary widely—some people will experience intense anxiety, others much less—depending on location, personality, whether parents are caring for children, and many other factors. Knowledge and experience matter.

In addition to being a psychologist, I have a background in sabotage and explosives. I have been under rocket, mortar, and tank fire, among other near-fatal experiences, so being under fire is something I know well. That said, during the last barrage of Iranian missiles, I was driving on the main road to Tel Aviv near the Herzliya Country Club junction. Five or six interceptions occurred so close to me that I felt powerful shock waves. One missile struck about a kilometer away, and the shock wave was so intense that I thought I had been physically wounded and checked myself for injuries.

Honestly, it was not just another day at the office. The last time I experienced fear of that intensity was when the Air Force accidentally dropped a cluster bomb on us—and I mean on us.

I continued driving to Tel Aviv. The roads were unusually clear, as people were running for cover, which at least had one positive side. It took me about an hour, aided by white wine, to calm down at my elder daughter’s place. Calm would have arrived one glass earlier, but missiles and drones were still targeting Tel Aviv.

A word about the “new” missiles we’ve been hearing about. There is talk of multiple-warhead missiles, where the warhead opens upon re-entry into the atmosphere and releases several smaller warheads. In the last barrage, some warheads used cluster munitions, which operate on the same principle. Instead of one large warhead, there are several smaller ones. Our interceptors can intercept these smaller warheads just as they can larger ones. Their impact is far less severe, both because of their size and their lower velocity. (A ballistic missile with a half-ton warhead can have the destructive effect of a one-ton warhead due to its extreme kinetic energy.)

Of course, Iran will attempt to overwhelm our anti-missile defenses by firing as many missiles as possible in a short time. I do not know how many missiles our air defense systems can engage simultaneously. Technically, it is difficult for Iran to launch hundreds at exactly the same moment. Missiles must be brought out of underground bases one at a time, and launchers are limited in number. Moreover, it would not be prudent—or convenient—for launchers to remain exposed once firing begins, as the skies will be full of jets and armed drones.

It has been reported that Iran possesses missiles with warheads exceeding 500 kg, possibly approaching 1,500 kg. If such missiles hit their targets, the explosions would obviously be more severe. However, these missiles would have to be much larger, easier to intercept, and perhaps—though I’m not certain—easier to identify and prioritize for interception.

There are also missiles equipped with retro-rockets—small side engines that cause the missile to zigzag during flight. These directional changes are limited, and apparently do not present a significantly greater threat. Our interceptors are guided throughout their flight and can maneuver accordingly.

One key difference between the last attack on Iran and this one—if it materializes—is that the U.S. will have a substantial number of jets and drones in Iranian airspace at any given time. Even aircraft en route to pre-determined targets can be redirected to strike missile launchers. Satellites and loitering unarmed drones (Israeli and American assets) will continuously monitor areas known to house underground missile bases. Launchers emerging from bunkers are likely to be spotted quickly and destroyed soon thereafter by U.S. aircraft. Even if launchers are hit only after firing, Iran’s rate of fire will steadily decrease, and the bases themselves will be heavily bombed.

Israeli jets, which often require refueling, take longer to reach these missile bases and do not include heavy bombers, unlike U.S. forces. Israel can relay precise target coordinates to American forces within moments. If Israel chooses to strike targets independently, perhaps for reasons of national pride, our Air Force would need to focus on static targets. Coordination to enter U.S.-controlled Iranian airspace would also be required, which can cause delays.

In Israel, we will not be surprised if the U.S. attacks tonight. From now on, until the situation either escalates or subsides, everyone should consider where they want to be—and where they do not want to be—during a missile barrage. If Iran is attacked and retaliates against Israel, missiles could be launched within minutes or hours.

These days, even Israelis who generally disdain authority are strictly following the directives of Homeland Security and the security forces.

A few practical tips:

If possible, avoid areas that are likely targets. At the very least, ensure you can leave them quickly for safer locations.
Prepare security rooms with comfortable seating and even mattresses for sleeping. Snacks and water are helpful—not because anyone will starve during an attack, but because food and hydration can help calm nerves (Jewish psychology, anyway).
Speak to children now about what may happen. If there is no attack, it may cause some anxiety. However, if an attack comes as a complete surprise, the psychological impact could be far worse. Rehearse calmly: make a siren sound (ideally your actual Red Alert app—do not use mine), walk slowly to the sealed room or shelter, bring teddy bears, close the door, and sit for a few minutes. This is psychological preparation, not technical training. And do not run—that’s how people get hurt unnecessarily.
Between alerts, try to maintain as normal a routine as possible. This is easier said than done. Today, I postponed an important task that required full concentration and chose instead to write this blog—which is therapeutic.
Expect a flood of misinformation on social media. Rely instead on reputable television channels (each person will define “reputable” differently), mainstream radio, and established news websites. The IDF spokesperson may include political framing, but factual reporting is reliable.
The main power station will likely be targeted. If damaged, there may not be sufficient backup for 24-hour electricity. Charge batteries and phones, prepare candles and matches, and keep your vehicle fueled.
Basic food supplies will not be a problem, so there is no need for panic buying.

Think of these missiles, if they arrive, as weapons of mass disruption, not mass destruction.

Play it cool!