Missing Facets for Gaza Plan

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Missing Facets For Trump’s 20 Point Gaza Peace Plan

INTRO
President Trump’s current 20 Point Peace Plan for Gaza is an improvement over previous Trump’s previous plans that involved USA ownership of Gaza, removal of Palestinians, and a Riviera tourist environment with hotels created by Trump, his family, and friends.

Tom Friedman has reserved optimism about whether the plan can succeed. He poetically expresses it as the prayerful point of view which is that “the poisonous legacy of the Gaza War will be overcome … because this is the last train to somewhere decent and the next one and all those ever after, will be nonstops to the gates of hell.”

HAMAS
A key issue is whether or not Hamas members will accept demilitarization. There are Gazans who are reluctant members of Hamas that have been violently threatened into membership or those who did Hamas tasks for money or food as a means of survival. As long as their safety can be guaranteed, I think they will gladly switch to peaceful coexistence. But there are Gazans, in the hierarchy of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, who strongly believe that there is a religious and land recovery basis for behaving aggressively against peaceful coexistence with Israel, even it means martyrdom. The Times of Israel reports (October 2, 2025) that Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said “If Hamas refuses, you know, then it would be very difficult. And of course, we will have more escalation.” That escalation is what Hamas extremists want, which is to showcase the view that Israel is a harmful negative nation, squashing chances for Palestinian statehood and behaving violently cruelly to Palestinians. According to Atlantic Council policy analyst Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, “Hamas has been weakened, losing control of the resistance narrative, and running out of options to maintain its political and military power in Gaza, and thus desperate to find an off-ramp. If they considered exile, it is unclear where would they seek refuge?”

Bringing extremist Hamas members into agreeing to demilitiarization and peaceful coexistence with Israel will be the biggest hurdle to jump across. But there is a way to do this and this involves bringing Iran, as an non-Arab Muslim, into this peace process.

IRAN
Reuters reports (September 29, 2025) Trump said that Iran could join the Abraham Accords. “Who knows, maybe even Iran can get in there,” Trump said this at a White House press conference beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. … “I think they’re going to be open to it. I really believe that. But they could be a member.”

Iran is hurting badly economically, climatically, and politically. I am not a fan of Iran and would like to see regime change or regime reform from its adherence to its authoritarian conservative principles combating liberal human rights. But, I think Trump and Netanyahu would tolerate and bail out the current Iranian government if it helped end the Gaza War by encouraging Hamas extremists to amicably leave Israel and go to Iran. And, in addition, for the Houthis and anti-Israel militants in Iraq to cease warfare against Israel.

If Hamas extremists were expelled to Iran, that would provide Israel with extra assurances that it would be safe and it could continue to have a secure future. Hamas may want to further criticize Israel and entangle it against Arabs and Muslims but it would do it from 1000 miles away. Of course, it is possible that when a Palestinian State was created and it became prosperous and there was peaceful coexistence between it and Israel, Hamas may decide to change its stance towards Israel in a positive way.

Iran would need incentives to do this. Iran is in bad shape economically, environmentally, and politically. Iran is currently suffering: a 40 percent inflation rate, critical shortages of power and water, big budget deficits, a devalued currency, United Nations Security Council reimposition of sanctions (snapback) over its nuclear program which include: freezing assets and banning travel for a range of Iranian entities and individuals, authorizing countries to stop and inspect cargo traveling from Iran by air and sea on Iranian government vessels, prohibiting Iran from: enriching uranium at any level, launching ballistic missiles with nuclear warhead capability, transferring technical knowledge of its ballistic missiles; and reinstating an arms embargo.

It appears that Iranian official have a strong desire to shop at Costco Wholesale. Why not? I buy my hearing aids, eyeglasses, pharmaceuticals, whipped cream, athletic pants, roasted chicken, and other things there at affordable prices. Costco and other big box wholesale stores has been a favorite of Iranian diplomats who travel every fall to New York City for the UN General Assembly.  There are no Costco stores in or near Iran. The New York Times reported that this year the Trump administration has barred them from shopping there.

It would be a nice gesture toward peace with Iran and for thanking them for their help with Hamas militants in Israel, to remove shopping and traveling restrictions in the New York City metropolitan area and to ask Costco to establish a few stores in Tehran and other major Iranian cities.

Helping Iran improve its situation and thus allowing its government to improve visibly to its people and regional neighbors, could be a strong reason to take in Hamas militants and appear as a savior to the Palestinian people. The UN, EU, UK, and the US could remove many of its sanctions and with Iran reducing the size of its military, those would would go along way to easing Iran’s economic difficulties. Reducing the size of Iran’s military would help Israel too.

Towards A Palestinian State
Toward the end of the Plan there is this statement: “While Gaza redevelopment advances and when the P.A. reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.”

Many observers of the Trump Plan think that there is only weak assurances that the Plan will lead to a “credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.” Al Jeezera reports (September 30, 2025) that many analysts believe the Trump plan “relies on two things that have long been in short supply: Netanyahu’s goodwill and US guarantees that Israel will stick to the agreement.”

As long as there is peaceful-coexistence, I don’t think Israel wants the responsibility and hassle for governing an Arab mostly Muslim State; and as long as there is some porosity between borders such that Jews (in moderation) can easily enter Palestine for religious observances at holy places (and vice versa), a Palestinian State would be fine.

But there is another pathway or alternative to a Palestinian State. I wrote about this elsewhere. Once the Hamas threat is removed, a confederation of three provinces would be created: (1) Orthodox Jewish Eretz Yisrael, (2) Traditional Muslim Falasteen, and a (3) Liberal-Pluralistic Judaea-Palestina. The three would be bound by a constitution, which would include a Mideast version of Singapore’s Maintenance of Religious Harmony Act. Palestinians and Jews could choose to live in any of the three provinces but Palestinians could only vote in Province (2) and (3). Likewise Jews could only vote in Provinces (1) and (3). This arrangement could be a trial geo-political arrangement and later Jews and Muslims could form independent sovereign states or they may want to stay joined this way indefinitely.

Think of the provinces of Ontario and Quebec, joined as parts of Canada and as Quebec voting on the Independence referendum in 1995 to become a sovereign nation separate from Ontario and Canada. The independence-for-Quebec option lost the vote in 1995 but it may again be voted on in 2026. Israel is more likely to feel securely comfortable to live with a Palestinian State if it can be done in stages where peaceful side by side living passes a probationary peace trial. A three province arrangement is one way to do that.

Ariel Sharon transformed from an aggressive Army General with a checkered history to a peace seeking Prime Minister. His plan for a unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza was welcomed by both the Palestinian Authority and Israel’s left wing as a step towards a final peace settlement. He said: “If there will be a serious Palestinian prime minister who makes a 100 percent effort to end terrorism, then we can have peace. Each side has to take steps.”