Moneyball or Deep Tech? Israel’s Security Future

Leveraging Israel’s vibrant tech ecosystem for today’s fights while investing in tomorrow’s breakthroughs

Some ideas in Israel’s defense debates grab me instantly. Others take a little while to sink in. The latest one buzzing through think-tanks and defense forums is something called the Moneyball Military.

At first I thought it was a gimmick – a catchy phrase borrowed from baseball to make war sound like a numbers game. But the more I have dug into it, the more I see why smart people are paying attention. The idea is simple but powerful: in an era when cheap drones, AI software, and off-the-shelf electronics can tip the battlefield, quantity matters as much as quality. That means fielding large numbers of small, affordable, data-driven systems instead of relying solely on a handful of exquisite, expensive platforms.

Think about Ukraine. The Russians had more tanks and more planes. Yet what rattled Moscow most were not just NATO’s advanced weapons but Ukraine’s ability to churn out drones, plug into satellite networks, and fuse battlefield data in real time. In many ways, this was Moneyball in uniform – low-cost tech acting as a force multiplier against a giant.

Israel has lived with this reality for decades. Hezbollah and Hamas figured out long ago that cheap rockets and low-end drones can overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome batteries. Iran has industrialized the model, flooding proxies with arsenals built on “cheap and plentiful.” And Israel’s response has been an extraordinary track record of intercepting swarms, often at success rates that amaze the world. But even so, every Tamir interceptor costs the country tens of thousands of dollars. Every drone they launch costs them a few hundred. You do not need a PhD in economics to see the imbalance.

This is where the Moneyball mindset comes in. Instead of relying only on the traditional “small and smart” doctrine that has underpinned Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME), Israel can fuse it with the ability to deploy high volumes of cost-effective systems – swarms of drones, autonomous vessels, distributed sensors, and AI-driven logistics.

Here is the good news: Israel is uniquely placed to lead this new game, powered by a technology ecosystem that is second to none. The country already is a global leader in AI, cybersecurity, data fusion, and imaging. Its startups specialize in doing more with less. The same ingenuity that gave the world Waze, Mobileye, and cyber unicorns can just as easily design modular drones, smart munitions, or autonomous supply convoys.

There is a big ‘but’: it only works if Israel slashes the red tape. Endless procurement cycles, layers of committees, and rigid regulations will suffocate innovation before it ever reaches the battlefield. The United States is tackling this through the Defense Innovation Unit and ‘Project Replicator.’ Israel needs its own equivalent, a fast, efficient bridge that links the civilian high-tech sector with the IDF at scale.

So yes, I understand the appeal of Moneyball Military. It is pragmatic. It is fast. And it plays to Israeli national strengths. Yet, even as I say this, I find myself coming back to a deeper concern.

Because here is the uncomfortable truth: cheap drones and autonomous swarms may win today’s battles, but they will not secure Israel’s long-term future. That is where my argument for Deep Tech comes in.

Deep tech is not about quick hacks or incremental gadgets. It is about fundamental breakthroughs – in energy, biotech, space systems, and advanced materials. These are the technologies that give a country both tactical wins and strategic resilience.

Let me give a few examples.

Take Energy. Imagine Hezbollah targeting Israeli gas rigs. Without bold investment in hydrogen, micro-reactors, and next-gen solar, the country is exposed. Another is Biotech. The next war might be biological, fought with engineered pathogens rather than rockets. Only biofoundries and rapid vaccine platforms can shield Israel. What about Space? If Israeli satellites are knocked out, GPS, intel, and communications are lost in a matter of minutes. A true space stack – resilient, sovereign, and secure – is what guarantees battlefield dominance in 2040, not just 2025.

In short, Moneyball may help Israel wins the skirmishes, but Deep Tech secures the century.

The question is not either/or. It is both/and. Israel must embrace Moneyball strategies to deal with the here and now: swarms of drones, low-cost attritional warfare, asymmetric threats. But simultaneously, it must double down on Deep Tech moonshots that guarantee it stays ahead when today’s tech is obsolete.

This dual track requires courage and coordination. Courage to invest in startups that may take ten years to pay off. Coordination between universities, IDF units, incubators, VCs, and ministries to ensure that brilliant research does not sit in labs, but becomes national assets.

The truth is, Israel has every ingredient it needs – elite engineers, survival urgency, global partners, and a culture that prizes daring over comfort. What its needs now is a clear national strategy that fuses Moneyball practicality with Deep Tech ambition.

As I write this, I think back to the theme I keep circling in these pages: resilience and renewal. These are not empty slogans. They are how Israel survived October 7. They are how kibbutzim rebuilt from ashes. They are how parents of hostages turned grief into advocacy. And they are how a new generation of founders is innovating the future of Israel.

The Moneyball Military is part of that renewal – a way of using what Israel already excels at (nimble innovation, startup grit, data-driven ingenuity) to stay alive in today’s brutal battlefield. Deep Tech is the longer arc – the promise that Israel will not just survive but thrive in the decades ahead.

So, if you ask me whether Israel should embrace the Moneyball Military, my answer is yes. But only as step one. Step two – and perhaps the more decisive one – is building a national deep-tech backbone. Because in the wars of 2035 or 2040, survival will not just depend on drone swarms. It will depend on who controls energy, biology and space.

Israel has the chance to do both – to be Moneyball smart and Deep Tech bold. That, to me, is the ultimate expression of resilience and renewal. And that, more than anything else, is how Israelis keep innovating the future of Israel.