More Israeli hostages released, then a future war with Hamas

This week, news agencies have been speculating how many bodies of hostages will be released to Israel by Hamas this coming Thursday, and how many living hostages will be released to Israel on Saturday.

It appears that both Israel and Hamas are moving forward, with Hamas willing to release many of the remaining hostages in Gaza by March 2025, during the first phase of the “hostages for terrorists” agreement. At a press conference on Tuesday morning, February 18, 2025, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said that, this week, Israel plans to enter into negotiations regarding the second phase of the agreement.

At the meeting for journalists, held at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), I asked Sa’ar if the current trickle of hostages will continue, or should we expect something else. He replied, “If it will be earlier for hostages to go out of captivity before the regional time of the agreement, that is very good and very important. We will continue to negotiate on the second phase for the hostage framework. While doing it, we will negotiate based on the resolutions of the security cabinet.”

In my follow-up question, I asked, if Hamas decides to stop releasing hostages, is Israel prepared to go back to war?

Sa’ar replied: “The answer is yes. I said we are committed to the objectives of the war, which was set by the security cabinet… If we can achieve our goals by different means, very good. If we won’t be able to do that, we will not finish the war without all the hostages in our hands.”

Sa’ar added that Israel is ready to restore its military forces in Gaza.

In a recent podcast, hosted by Israel’s Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), Founder and Chairman, Brigadier General (res.) Amir Avivi, clarified the next stages of the hostage deal, including the great concern, globally, by Israel supporters — that Hamas will only proceed with these negotiations because they want to remain in control in Gaza. Israelis, as well, are concerned that during the current ceasefire, Hamas could be strengthened, not weakened.

According to General Avivi, “We have a big challenge. We have to bridge between two important goals of war. One is eradicating Hamas as a governmental and military entity, and the other is bringing all the hostages back.”

In his view, Israel wants to see the release of the hostages, but the price is terrible. In the midst of the ceasefire, under the current deal, Israel continues to release terrorists from Israeli jails, while Hamas is rebuilding its capabilities. But, as long as Israel gets the hostages, it is willing to pay the price. Avivi sees Israel as being able to reverse this situation. He claims that, at the right moment, the IDF can go back into Gaza and eradicate Hamas, according to Israel’s stated goals of destroying their military and governing powers.

“There are no good options. Most of them are bad options. But, Israel wants to get out as many hostages as possible,” Avivi acknowledged.

From an operational point-of-view, the IDF’s Southern Command assesses that the less hostages that are in Gaza, the easier it is for Israel to finish off Hamas.

General Avivi stated, “We saw the difference between the way the IDF fought in Gaza, when the hostages had to be kept alive, and what we did with Hezbollah. How much easier it was for us to fight Hezbollah — which is a much more mightier terror army than Hamas — because there were no hostages there.”

Israel has taken meaningful action to close the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border so that Hamas cannot smuggle advanced weapons into Gaza from Egypt. This will help in any future war Israel has to fight in order to destroy Hamas. It limits the resources of Hamas as they will not have the Egyptian supply route to replenish their weapons.

Meanwhile, negotiations for the second phase of the hostage deal are much more sensitive, according to Avivi. “The next stage basically says Hamas must get out of Gaza, lay down their weapons, and give us all the hostages. This is from the Israeli side. From the Hamas side, they want the complete end of the war, and they want to stay in power, one way or another.”

This is not an option for the Israeli government. Avivi does not see how Israel can bridge this reality of stage two, and therefore, the chances are that soon Israel is going back to a full-scale war in Gaza, which the Israeli army is preparing for. “The only thing that might happen, which Israel is discussing now, is extending stage one.”

This means Israel extending the cease fire for several weeks, hoping Hamas gives Israel the remaining hostages that are alive. Avivi says that it would be easier for Israel to fight Hamas in a future war, without the living hostages still in Gaza (which hinders the IDF from being able to fully act against Hamas).

Is Hamas going to agree to extend the first stage? Avivi explains that Hamas needs time to reorganize. They are assessing how much more time they need. “Every day for them is meaningful, but they have to pay a price. They have to give us hostages. So, they have to balance between their need to regroup, to organize, to get ready for a full-scale attack by Israel, and their need to hold the hostages as human shields to defend themselves. There will be a moment when they say they are not releasing any more hostages.”

At that time, if stage one is not extended, Avivi says Israel will go to war. “It’s important to understand there are not going to be any negotiations if there will not be a release of hostages. It’s not that we are going to finish stage one, and then we’ll talk for half a year about stage two. This is not going to happen. The moment Hamas doesn’t release hostages, this is the moment Israel attacks.”

Avivi said that this battle will not be a full-scale attack on the first day. Israel’s defense forces will attack, fiercely, using the air force, in the beginning of this future war. Israel has received a large amount of munitions from the United States which were held back by the Biden Administration, and only recently released by the Trump Administration. A ship with almost 2,000 air force bombs arrived in Israel. This was what Israel was waiting for to finish the war.

Part of the munitions will be adopted by Israel for a future full-scale attack on Iran. In the meantime, Avivi believes that Israel is currently using the cease-fire with Hamas to give some rest to IDF soldiers; to organize; to equip; and to be ready for the fight with Hamas. “Israel is determined to destroy Hamas. There is no scenario that this war ends without Hamas being eradicated, and Israel taking control of Gaza.”

Avivi talked about disconnecting Hamas from humanitarian aid. At the beginning of the Gaza war, in October 2023, Israel did not give Hamas gasoline, and the provisions were scarce. It put Hamas under great pressure. This went on until January. Then, the Biden Administration started seriously pressuring Israel, to bring as much humanitarian aid into Gaza, as needed. The aid went mostly to Hamas who distributed it to the Gazans at a big price. Avivi admitted that this completely changed the reality inside Gaza.

When Israel goes to battle with Hamas this time, Israel will be looking at a much more powerful attack, along with completely disconnecting Hamas from humanitarian aid, resulting in a collapse of Hamas. The Israeli army has prepared various strategies for this future plan.

This means that the IDF might be moving around the Gazans in the Gaza Strip, again, to protect them. “A full stage attack is going to have a huge psychological impact on the Gazan society.”

In the war in October 2023, Israel went in and out of Gaza with raids. Avivi claims this is not what Israel will do in the near future. “Next time, Gaza will be conquered completely. It’s going to be a completely different scenario. We are arriving at this scenario with the best trained army in the world, with huge amounts of capabilities and technologies, and the experience of our soldiers, and a lot of munitions, and determination to get the job done. While we are building ourselves, Hamas’ ability to re-build itself is very limited.”

Avivi continued, saying that Hamas will be left with 10-15% of what they were capable of before. Because Israel is able to conduct a siege, controlling the food, electricity, and water, it is just a matter of time before their defeat.

While Israeli troops are withdrawing now from Lebanon, even with five posts being manned with a small Israeli presence inside south Lebanon, it frees up the IDF to concentrate on Gaza, which seems to be the next place of military action.

At the Foreign Ministry press conference, Sa’ar laid out what Israel expects to happen, a confirmation of Avivi’s assessment. “The Israeli government is demanding the complete demilitarization of Gaza. We will not accept the continued presence of Hamas or any other terrorist groups in Israel.”

Sa’ar stressed that the Gazans should be able to voluntarily decide that they want to live abroad and not in Gaza. Reports indicate that Israel and America are encouraging this, including plans to assist them with air fare and other necessities for their move abroad. Sa’ar indicated that there should be no objections to the Gazans exercising their free will to move out of Gaza if they choose to do so. After the coming war, there is a sense they will want to leave the poor conditions they are living in, anyway. Then, Israel will look to hand Gaza over to the Trump Administration to enact his plan for reconstructing and rebuilding Gaza.