Much Ado About Nothing   

 Well, everyone here has been hunkered down since the weekend waiting for the big attack by Iran and its proxies (i.e. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houtis, and even Palestinians living in Judea & Samaria/the West Bank), yet, except for a drone here and there from Lebanon …..nothing.   It actually seems now that all the supplies we put in to our “safe rooms” in case we were attacked may not be needed after all. So, what happened?

Frankly a lot of things because nobody anywhere in this region except Iran really wants a regional war to break out and that is a feeling shared by other countries of influence as well.

Som observations from a lay person……

First. the United States sent two strike forces (i.e. each is an armada of warships led by an aircraft carrier or two) to the eastern Mediterranean and parked them right off Israel’s coastline.  The appearance of that much naval firepower along with fighter aircraft ready to launch was a message to Iran & Co. that perhaps they better think twice before attacking us lest they suffer the wrath of the US’ show of strength, joined by the UK as well.

No doubt this made the Iranians think twice about unleashing their own firepower.  They clearly remember that when they tried this the last time on April 13^th, 98% of the 300+ drones and missiles that they launched in that barrage were shot down in mid-air, and not just by us.  The US, UK, France and even Jordan and Saudi Arabia joined in our defense.

Second, Russia’s Putin travelled to Tehran earlier this week to meet with the Iranian leadership as well.  According to reliable press reports he told the Iranians that if they did attack Israel, they should make sure not to go after civilians in Israel but stick to military targets only.  The Iranians, of course, don’t want to get the Russians angry as Russia is a huge buyer of Iranian oil and a political ally as well.   Of course, the Russian instructions to Iran are also very difficult to follow technologically, as the Iranian missiles are not so accurate as to be able to differentiate targets very well.   If they try to comply there will be a lot of “oops” moments for sure.

Third, Jordan’s foreign minister also paid a visit to Tehran this week, the first time there has been such a high-level Jordanian in Iran in twenty years.   His purpose in going there was to make it clear to the Iranians that Jordan will not permit Iran to use its air space in order to attack another country (read:  Israel).  Given that the biggest physical obstacle between Iran and Israel’s eastern border is Jordan, that would make it impossible for Iran to lob missiles directly at Israel from the east, unless they go via Saudi Arabia but…….

Fourth, not to be outdone, shortly after Jordan made its point to the Iranians, the Saudis said “us too,” and took the same position as the Jordanians, warning Iran that Saudi air space is also closed to Iranian missiles aimed at a third country (again, read:  Israel).

A cursory look at the map of the Middle East will show that once you eliminate the possibility of launching missiles at Israel via Jordan and Saudi Arabia, the only border left is the northern border with Lebanon whose access is only possible via Iraq and Syria.   That provides a very narrow geographical window of opportunity and it is not 100% clear that Hezbollah, although it is a proxy of Iran, would be able to convince the Government of Lebanon to permit this. While their government is not very strong the people of Lebanon as a whole are not happy with the presence there of Hezbollah so this kind of permission cannot be assumed.

As a result, my guess is we will see a very very muted response from the Iranians, in spite of all their bluster over the last ten days.  They will try something for sure but it may be simply a series of drones launched from Lebanon or even a missile or two that they will apologize to the Jordans about and which will be neutralized enroute.

This does, of course, still leave us with the issues on our northern border with which we have been dealing since October 8^th.  It is not clear where that will end up but it would be good to be able to limit the fronts where we are fighting to two rather than the present seven.

Let’s hope that the Iranians are as smart and strategic as people give them credit for.  They won’t walk away from this loving us, but defanged enemies are much easier to deal with than those who actually mean what they say and have the wherewithal to act out their threats without any restraints.  And if it works out this way, once again us believers will have seen the hand of the Lord in all its glory.