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Dan Ehrlich

Multi Front War of Attrition with No Word on Hostages

The one year commemoration of October 7th also accentuates the fact that Gaza was only the first act in a bloody conflict that now has Israel militarily involved, according to PM Benjamin Netanyahu, on seven fronts with no clear path to victory and no more freed hostages.

And Netanyahu is the main reason the nation has expanded its conflict with Hamas to one now taking in much of the region and exposing Israel’s main population centres to attacks from Iran and Hezbollah.

Adding to this danger, France has lost patience with Israel over the war and its effect on the Gaza civilian population and has suspended arms shipments to the country, while urging other nations to do the same.

Little by little, the NATO nations Israel depends on for material support, are ready to call time on Netanyahu’s endless objections to a ceasefire.

In fact, the only certainty in this conflict is Netanyahu remaining at the helm of an Israel in peril from a war that he, more than any one, had a hand in creating. Which makes his threats against Iran and Hezbollah seem rather hollow given the fact Hamas in Gaza still hasn’t been totally crushed as he promised year-ago with his ‘dead men walking’ pledge.

Not since the Punic Wars in 200B.C. between ancient Carthage and Rome has such a small but powerful nation challenged a much larger foe…and we know how that ended for Carthage.

But, is it wise for Israel to widen this year-long war into a multi front engagement of attrition? Is  Israel capable of carrying on such a war? A major reason Germany lost WW2 was fighting many nations on multiple fronts.

It seemed for months the key to keeping the lid on hostilities would be a ceasefire in Gaza.

Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib told CNN that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had agreed to a 21-day ceasefire just days before he was assassinated.

But the Israeli ambassador to the United Kingdom, Tzipi Hotovely, has denied Lebanon’s assertion that the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is reported to have said before his assassination.

“Hassan Nasrallah didn’t agree to any ceasefire, it’s just ridiculous,” Tzipi said, speaking on the UK’s Sky News, adding that the claim has “no base in reality.”

Yet, Bibi is acting like a losing poker player who doesn’t know when to quit. After a year he hasn’t wiped out Hamas and the remaining hostages haven’t been freed. To complicate this, he and the Israeli security services don’t even know where they are being held.

Hezbollah and the Houthis have said they will stop attacking Israel if there’s a Gaza ceasfire. This not only hasn’t happened, but Israel has actively expanded the war to Lebanon and Yemen.

With such a terrible record for the handling of this war and the buildup to it, most PM’s would resign. Not the Bibster, who’s still looking for that big win, one in which he’s counting on the US to help him secure. He may feel when the chips are down the US may be ready to prove what having a superpower ally is worth. But don’t count on it.

In any case, Netanyahu needs such a win to validate the war and offset the condemnation he’s facing for enabling Hamas to carry out the worst Jewish massacre since WW2.

About the Author
A London based American journalist with a long wide ranging career spanning print, radio TV and online news.