My Predictions For Iran Agreement

This much is certain regardless of the contents of the agreement being drafted in Vienna.  As soon as the white smoke wafts out of the Palais Coburg chimney:

1.     Iran will declare victory. The government needs it at home to rally public opinion and to counter pressure from the hardliners. It also knows how much any boasting irritates its enemies, especially in Israel, Saudi Arabia and the GOP{. 

2.     Secretary of State John Kerry will say the United States has achieved its major breakthrough and protected the world from nuclear proliferation. He'll praise the hard work of his team, his allies and the other side. Then he'll go out and buy himself a new bicycle.

3.     President Barack Obama will declare it a historic achievement and vow to make sure Iran meets its obligations and that the terms of the agreement are vigorously enforced. He will solemnly assure one and all he is ready to re-impose sanctions in the face of any violations, as though the rest of us are naïve enough to believe that could be done with the stroke of a pen.

4.     Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will declare it is an unmitigated disaster for world peace, motivation for more Iranian terrorism and a threat to Jewish survival.  Then he'll do some of his trademark sabre rattling to suggest he may take unilateral military action, but no one will believe him because they know he's done that so many times before.

5.     Every Republican presidential candidate will line up behind Bibi as will most Republicans in Congress and Jewish organizations.

6.     Congressional Democrats will be confused, not wanting to choose between backing Obama and offending wealthy single-issue Jewish donors and hardline pro-Israel activists. 

7.  Hillary Clinton will thoughtfully equivocate, not wanting to endorse it too enthusiastically nor to be so chilly as to risk offending Obama and losing his help in the presidential campaign.