My Take on the Upcoming the Trump-Netanyahu meeting

• Iran, Iran and Iran: Netanyahu will come to the summit with an agenda emphasizing Iran -this has two reasons – to divert attention away from Phase 2 of the plan for Gaza; and because Israel will ask for a massive aid package for more anti-rocket systems and funding for more rockets from Israel’s military industries. Netanyahu will emphasize the rapid re-arming of the Iranian missile systems and he will say that Israel faces an imminent existential threat from Iran’s missiles.

• In Gaza: Netanyahu will oppose any further redeployment of Israeli forces closer to the Israeli border. He will claim that Israel needs to maintain its ability to control all aspects of security in Gaza and to have freedom to act (granted by President Trump).

• Withdrawal: There is no Phase 2 without further Israeli withdrawals in Gaza. Netanyahu needs to understand that Phase 2 is based on Israel withdrawing to a new line and that eventually, and not too far in the distance, Israel will be required to withdraw behind the international border.

• Security Perimeter: Israel needs to be told that once Phase 2 is implemented and the disarming of Hamas is in the process (which will take time), there should remain no Israeli troops left in Gaza. The security perimeter could become a “no entry zone” for Palestinians on the Palestinian side (between 500 -1000 meters deep depending on topography). The security perimeter can be a “shoot to kill zone”, without the need for Israeli soldiers to be stationed within Gaza. That is the only way to effectively make the claim that Gaza is not occupied by Israel and to get Hamas is decommission its weapons.

• Disarmament: There will be no real disarming of Hamas as long as Israel occupies and controls Gaza. Netanyahu will say that Israel will not redeploy back as long as Hamas remains armed and in control of Gaza. Netanyahu has to be told by President Trump that Israel cannot occupy Gaza.

• Phase 2 without delay: It is essential for the Phase 2 to kick-in ASAP – so that Hamas is forced to give up its governance control and its security control.

• Who can disarm Hamas? The only force that will able to disarm Hamas is a Palestinian force subordinate to the Palestinian technocratic committee in Gaza. This may have to involve some more talks between the new Gaza committee and the Hamas leadership abroad. This can be facilitated by the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey.

• End the blockade: The blockade on Gaza can no longer be in effect. If the blockade remains, then nothing in Gaza changes and this will not be the final Israeli-Gaza war. The Rafah crossing has to be a two-way crossing as the Americans have insisted. As much as possible, Rafah should become the primary commercial crossing enabling humanitarian aid and building materials to enter Gaza without going through Israeli checking and controls. There must be an effective security mechanism in place on the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing to ensure that no smuggling will take place. There were talks were for an EU security mechanism as in the past, this should be bolstered with American involvement as well -making it more trustworthy in the eyes of Israel.

• No Israeli Veto: Israel should not have a veto on what happens in Gaza. Israel can veto what happens inside of Israel, not what happens in Gaza. These issues must be in the hands of President Trump and his team to decide and Netanyahu should be told that he is overstepping when he tries to decide what should happen regarding the Board of Peace, the Executive Committee, the Palestinian technocratic committee and the International Stabilization Force. President Trump must be a lot tougher with Netanyahu on these issues than the US has been regarding the Israeli breaches of the ceasefire. This is money time and everyone is waiting to see if Israel controls the President or if the President can control Netanyahu.

• Don’t forget the West Bank: While all eyes are on Gaza, the situation in the West Bank is becoming catastrophic. Settler violence, supported by the IDF and the Israeli police is unhinged and dangerous. Smotrich is bulldozing ahead with no obstacles in confiscating Palestinian land, building more illegal settlements, constructing roads for Jews only, and destroying the Palestinian economy. Only President Trump can put his foot down and order Netanyahu to stop what Israel is doing. The explicit goal of Smotrich, Ben Gvir and Netanyahu is to pre-empt any possibility ever of there being a Palestinian state. Their building plans are to prevent any chance of Palestinian land contiguity – new settlements in the north of Jerusalem, between Jerusalem and Maaleh Adumin, and all over the north and the south of the West Bank are what Israel is doing to erase the Palestinian dream of an independent state. It will not work; it will only increase violence – which is Smotrich’s wet dream. While the US is looking only at Gaza, Israel is provoking a massive violent outburst in the West Bank – which is just what Ben Gvir and Smotrich want – and apparently Netanyahu supports as well. That way the destruction of Palestinian life in the West Bank will be fostered because of Palestinian violence. This is very dangerous and the Israeli actions push the Palestinians to support extreme positions and organizations – like Hamas.