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Goksel Menek
High Politics Expert and Middle East Analyst

New Leader New Syria or Next Revolutionary Gamble?

Al-Sharaa in his speech to the public at the Umayyad Mosque, he said, "My brothers, after this great victory, a new history is being written across the entire region."

As revolution flags flutter over the newly liberated squares and presidential palaces of Syria, a man in a suit stands tall beneath the rising sun, flanked by his masked guards. This man speaks, and the people follow. His name is Ahmed Hussein Al-Sharaa, known to his comrades as Muhammad al-Jawlani—a nom de guerre symbolizing the dream of reclaiming the Israeli Golan Heights. The U.S. Department of State has designated al-Nusrah Front leader Muhammad al-Jawlani as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist under Executive Order (E.O.) 13224 on May 16, 2013. But as the tides of time have shifted for Syria, so too has the identity of its new leader. Now, he simply goes by Ahmed Al-Sharaa, de facto leader of Syria. But how did this man, once in the global terrorist list, emerge as a state leader and no one is there to say anything about it?

Al-Sharaa‘s journey into jihadist ideology began in the shadow of one of the darkest days in modern history: the September 11, 2001 attacks. Stirred by the aftermath, he found himself drawn to the fiery sermons and clandestine panels held in the impoverished corners of Damascus, where disillusionment and anger festered. As the U.S. invasion of Iraq unfolded, Al-Sharaa‘s path became clearer—he left for Iraq, consumed by a desire to fight for Islamic cause. There, he aligned himself with al-Qaeda, but his ambitions were cut short when he was arrested and sentenced to five years in prison. 

By March 2011, as the winds of revolution swept through Syria and the first embers of the uprising against the Assad regime were ignited, Al-Sharaa returned to his homeland. It was here that he planted the seeds of his own legacy, founding the al-Nusra Front—a group born under the banner of al-Qaeda but destined to evolve into the infamous HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham).

In May 2015, Al-Sharaa sought to set himself apart from ISIS’s blood-soaked narrative. In a rare statement, he declared that his group harbored no desire to wage war against the West, nor would they exact revenge on Syria’s Alawite minority, including the Assad family, should they seize power. It was a calculated move, one that seemed aimed at reshaping his image.

A year later, in a strategic move, Al-Sharaa announced a formal break from al-Qaeda, framing it as an effort to shield HTS from Western attacks. This shift was more than just political—it was personal. On the global stage, Al-Sharaa’s survival depended on shedding the image of a reckless extremist. The less he resembled a “toxic jihadist” and the more he played the part of a responsible, calculated leader, the greater his chances of securing influence in a fractured and weary Middle East. The less panic there is on the local and international stage, and the more Al-Sharaa behaves like a responsible actor rather than a toxic extremist jihadist, the easier things will be for him.

The new regime in Syria may preach respect for non-Muslim communities, but the truth beneath their promises reveals a shift. Islamist groups, the torchbearers of the revolution, are steering the country toward a vision deeply rooted in Islamic teachings, dismantling the secular foundations of the al-Assad era.

On the streets, men hand out burkas in a fervent “call to Islam” while schools unveil a new curriculum. Pre-Islamic Syrian history is erased, and scientific topics like evolution and the Big Bang theory vanish, replaced by narratives that serve a single ideology.

In the glow of victory over a brutal tyranny, these changes slip through unnoticed by many—subtle to some, but ominous to others. The question lingers: is Syria stepping into a brighter future, or falling into the shadows of a different kind of oppression?

So, who truly holds the power in Syria? Is Ahmed Al-Sharaa a jihadist chasing the dream of a grand Islamic state, an opportunist seizing power in a time of chaos, or a responsible citizen and patriot of the Syrian Arab Republic striving for unity?

As the dust of war settles, all eyes turn to this enigmatic leader. Will he seize the chance to reshape Syria’s destiny and forge alliances with its neighbors? Most critically, which path will this glory-hunter and cunning pragmatist choose? Will he lean toward Türkiye’s ambitions thanks to Türkiye’s military presence, Saudi Arabia’s influence that stems from oil money, or even the unthinkable—an understanding with Israel? Will he be forced to taste his own bitter medicine, delivered by the hands of other fearless jihadists, should this seemingly smoother and more tolerant Islamic leader cling to power? 

The answer could define not just his legacy, but the future of the region and Syria itself. Triumph or betrayal.

As I always say time will show.

About the Author
Goksel Menek was born in Istanbul in January 1998 into a middle-class family. He graduated from Prof. Dr. Fuat Sezgin Science School and was admitted to Marmara Medical School, where he earned his Doctor of Medicine degree in 2022. Currently, he is working as a physician in Turkiye. Throughout his medical career and mandatory military service, he interacted with various high-profile officials and colleagues. He became actively involved in healthcare unions, civil society, and think-tank organizations. His curiosity and ability to form connections led to friendships with prominent public servants and established ties with members of Türkiye’s ruling party. These relationships enable him to assess and interpret regional developments with unique insight and accuracy.
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