Next Year in Berlin

One year ago, ELNET held the 11^th strategic dialogue between Israel and Germany in Berlin. Back then, Israel was a month into its ground operation in Gaza, and the Ukrainian counter-offensive had reached a stalemate. The Israeli government was thought to be on a short lifeline, while the German government was considered stable. In the US, President Biden had expanded his Senate majority in the midterms, and Donald Trump was indicted. One year later, the situation has not only changed; it has been turned on its head.

Israel has mostly defeated Hamas and Hezbollah. It has thwarted Iran’s missiles attacks and destroyed strategic targets on Iranian territory. The Israeli government is expected to last until the Fall of 2026. The upcoming snap election in Germany is likely to produce a different coalition. The incoming US administration is committed to the defeat of Iran and to normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In other words, the year 2025 could potentially be a turning point in the wars fought simultaneously in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East.

In those two wars, the special relationship between Germany and Israel is not only mutually beneficial. It is also an asset to the free world. The military partnership between Germany and Israel makes a major contribution to our common resistance to the Russia-Iran axis. Not only has Germany rejected demands to end military supplies to Israel. It has also held its ground –a moral ground– at the ICJ, at the ICC, and at the UN. It has reminded the world, with courage and determination, that Israel’s security is part of its Staatsräson.

But the tragedies of the past are not, and should not, be the only reason for Israel’s special place in Germany’s Staatsräson. This special place is also the outcome of shared values and of common interests. After all, Staatsräson is a German adaptation of the French raison d’État and of the Italian Ragion di Stato. Henry Kissinger writes in his magnum opus Diplomacy that raison d’État is to French what Realpolitik is to German. In which case there is no need for the word Staatsräson. But the point is that there is no shortage of words in European languages to talk about national interest.

With the war in Ukraine, the Zeitenwende, and the global coalition between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, there is also no shortage of awareness about the fact that our free societies are threatened once again. But awareness is not enough. The free world must be resilient, and it must be united at the UN, where democracies and law-abiding nations are a minority. In the Middle East, repeating hollow formulas like some type of religious incantation, will not bring peace. Realpolitik might. This means working with the new US administration instead of dismissing it. It means building alternatives to UNRWA. It means breaking apart the Iranian axis of aggression. And it means understanding that Israeli society is not the same, and will never be the same, after October 7.

We end the Pessah Haggadah with the words “Next year in a rebuilt Jerusalem.” But since this 12^th Germany-Israel dialogue took place in Jerusalem, let us wish “Next year in Berlin.” Thankfully, this dialogue only meets in reunited capitals.

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This text summarizes the author’s concluding remarks at ELNET’s 12th strategic dialogue between Germany and Israel, held in Jerusalem on 20 November 2024.