On the Cusp of a Disaster

Never did we need America more.

Europe won a great war together with America; they beat both Nazi Germany and Japan. Having come full circle a totally reformed Germany is now leading the whole of Europe into an act of Hauraki. The population of France is changing rapidly as it exchanges Jews for Muslims. Europe has to be saved from either becoming disorderly in the extreme or fascist-there seems to be no middle ground.

In the Middle East, there is a similar impending mayhem. The lines artificially drawn in the sand by Europe have been blown away in winds of racial and religious discontent.

Meanwhile in America, we are faced by the changing of the old guard. The old guard, Obama, in many senses wreaked havoc in the Middle East. Obama’s realigning and resetting of policies have little to show and possibly have been a major disaster.

We are now faced with an American election which is looking like an unmitigated train crash. The Democrats are in the death grip of Hillary Clinton; she can never disavow her overwhelming desire to be president, no matter how greatly disliked she may be. Once again, she’s being hounded as she stumbles towards nomination and ever increasingly is showing that she is eminently unelectable. Her competitor, strangely enough, if anything is even more unelectable. This should leave the field completely open to the Republican Party. This is not the case. Having flirted with the Tea Party, the lunacy has morphed itself into the most unlikely candidacy of Donald Trump.

Almost any candidate from the Democrats would beat Trump — apart from Sanders. We are now facing a very likely scenario of three if not four candidates: Sanders, Bloomberg, a sane Republican, and Trump. There is no way, if this was to happen, that the electoral college could reach a conclusion and name a majority sponsored president. The decision would go to the Senate. One would assume that the Republican candidate would win. However, the horse trading and dealings would be very unpalatable. American democracy, and the eventual president would be so devalued as to lead them into a crisis of leadership. In this situation, there is no way that the new president can act as a leader. In other words, there is going to be a vacuum-an even bigger one than now.

Let’s return to the Middle East, were in all probabilities the third world war could and probably will start. Unfortunately, it may be much sooner than we think. The instability in the Middle East is appalling. If that was not enough, add to it the lunacy of giving the Shi’it Iran a bomb. This act alone will drive the Saudis into an alliance with the Sunni, unstable Pakistan. Most people seem not to notice that Pakistan and Iran have a common border. The future atomic holocaust could well start there.

The touch point will be, in all probabilities be the Arab-Israeli conflict. The conflict which is again being mismanaged by Europe, and in particular, France. If we have seen anything of late, it is the complete incapacity of the Muslim state to exist if it is not ruled by a despot or consisting of well-defined people. To insist that Israel allows a Palestinian state to come into existence and immediately disintegrate into a Hamas replica, if not worse, is an exercise in self-delusion of the highest order.

There has to be a reset in all our calculations and concepts with regards to governance in Arab states in general, and Palestine in particular. This is not going to happen. It is far too easy to dismiss, be sanctimonious, and avoid the issue completely. Neither the leadership in Europe nor America has the intellectual capacity or gumption to redefine and solve the issue.

There will be a chain reaction as the Hezbollah in all probabilities at Iran’s behest will take advantage of the imbroglio and make yet another mistake. It is almost inevitable that the Hamas will join in. Iran, who has made a series of fatal mistakes has not had to face the consequence of any of them. We have to thank the inherent weakness of the Obama administration. Iran has wasted a fortune in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. Obama has allowed them to assume that there is no price for their recklessness.

I see a three staged deterioration leading to a nuclear conflict involving Pakistan and Iran. The first stage will be the isolation of Israel; the second stage will be the unsuccessful brinkmanship of Iran both directly and indirectly through its proxies the Hamas and Hezbollah-at some stage Saudi Arabia will intervene as it cannot allow Israel’s demise. The tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran will boil over dragging the Pakistanis into the conflict with most awful consequences.

Nevermore have we needed the leadership of America, and never ever we have seen such a confused election with such doubtful consequences.

About the Author
Born in Leeds in 1944, Michael Benjamin is a retired Psychiatrist and medical auditor, co-founder of Oranit, aspiring author and inveterate cynic.
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