Our single hope for bringing home the hostages

As usual, there is lots of spin and speculation around the hostage talks and Trump’s visit to the region. Talk of a window of opportunity because of it is just more of the spin. Some are pinning their hopes that Trump will pressure Qatar to put more pressure on Hamas, as though that will move the chess pieces. Whether or not Qatar was behind the attempts to ruin the Egyptian plan are irrelevant, because the Egyptian plan had no chance of success on the Israeli side. It, too had ending the war as part of the plan.

That part of it, for Netanyahu was and is THE deal breaker.  No plan and no window of opportunity has any chance as long as Netanyahu is not pressured into agreeing to a deal that will end the war. Every single party in the negotiations knows this.

I have said this too many times to count: Hamas, the barbaric terrorist organization is not a normal negotiating partner. There is no room for compromise. They will only show some levels of flexibility in interim agreements but their bottom line for the final agreement never changes. My brother, who has spent 18 years negotiating with Hamas (more than any other person) for the benefit of Israel and Israeli citizens has seen that personally. In the case of the negotiations for Gilad Schalit, Hamas’ demands at the beginning of Gilad’s captivity and the final agreement 5 years and 4 months later were identical.

We see it now again with our remaining 59 hostages. Hamas’ demands throughout the war to release all of the hostages were the same at the beginning as they are now. Hamas could be on their last dying breaths, their infrastructure could be completely devastated, their leaders could be killed, but they are holding the Aces: our hostages, and their demands remain: end the war with international guarantees, full withdrawal of all Israeli troops, release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including mass murderers.

Netanyahu has a history of releasing large numbers of Palestinian prisoners for hostages, that’s not a line in the sand for him. Ending the war and full pullback of troops is his line in the sand and not for Israel’s benefit, but for his own self interests.

(His self-interests for not ending the war:

1-It would bring about many more calls for early elections, including from within the government, which is the last thing Netanyahu wants. He wants as much time as possible to help him blur his responsibility for everything that led up to October 7 from the memories of voting Israelis as well as to try to restore his legacy for the history books. He has always envisioned streets, buildings, universities and possibly cities being named after him, and not to go down in history as the prime minister responsible for the worst attack in the history of the State and the worst day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust;

2-It would bring about more demands and potential agreements for an Official Independent State Commission of Inquiry, which is also the last thing that Netanyahu wants. He tried to have the Knesset pass a law that would forbid this Commission from ever seeing the light of day.

There are many reasons why Netanyahu and his corrupt and failed government, do not want a State Commission of Inquiry. First and foremost, they know that a commission like this that they don’t control, will find this and previous Netanyahu governments culpable for all that led up to October 7, especially Netanyahu himself. They further know that many of their political careers will end as a result and that some of them, particularly Netanyahu may be brought up on real criminal charges with the findings. It would be the end of Netanyahu’s career and completely stain his historical legacy and he would be remembered as the worst and most dangerous prime minister in the history of the State. Furthermore, they would be found culpable, responsible and guilty for the failures to manage this war and for the failures to return the hostages and for the deaths of so many while in captivity. They only want a Knesset approved commission that they would fully appoint its members, determine the mandate, structure and limits of that committee in order to make sure that all responsibility and blame would fall on the security apparatus and not deal with the political echelon at all. They want to be the ones appointing the investigators who are supposed to investigate them. Absurd but fitting this corrupt and failed government;

3-It would limit the time that Netanyahu needs for this corrupt government to finalize the overthrow of the judicial system which would also and most importantly for Netanyahu bring about the cancellation of all charges against him in his current criminal court cases. He is deathly afraid of being found guilty and being sentenced to prison. He is already the first sitting Prime Minister to be charged with criminal acts and the first to stand trial. He certainly doesn’t want to go into the history books and the first Prime Minister convicted and sentenced to prison.)

The international guarantees are also not a deal breaker, except for Netanyahu using it as a talking point against ending the war. No international guarantees have ever stopped Israel from defending itself and in the case of this war, going back into Gaza the second that Hamas breeches the agreement, such as a single rocket fired from Gaza would be a no brainer. That is a given. Netanyahu uses the international guarantees in an agreement as a talking point against ending the war but in practice, he has never cared about any international guarantees or agreements when it comes to violating humanitarian and international laws. We have seen it throughout his premiership especially in relation to settlements in the West Bank, but it has been very apparent during this war and the last major case was his blatant violation of the last hostage deal in regard to everything dealing with Phase 2.

He only uses the argument of international agreements and guarantees when it comes to ending the war that it would be impossible to go back to fighting.  Everyone knows that he has no problem violating agreements. It’s only a talking point when it suits his interests.

The only window of opportunity that Trump’s visit could bring and make a difference is if he pressures Netanyahu, as he did in the last agreement that saw the return of 33 living and dead hostages, to end the war and pull back troops. Trump is truly the only person who has the power to force Netanyahu into this agreement and that is because of Netanyahu’s weakness against the extremists who are really running this war and keeping the hostages in captivity.

There are 2 extremist parties who have not stopped threatening to bring down the government if he agrees to any deal that would bring the war to an end. But only Ben Gvir’s party would see that through. Smotrich will not leave the government because he is painfully aware that his chances of being elected to the Knesset, let alone be a minister are close to nil according to all poles (if poles are to be believed). Leaving the government would mean he loses all political power and money to further his messianic mission to force out all Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza and make both full of Jewish settlements. The Haredi parties who talk about the hostages being brought home as the most important issue are just blah, blah, blah. None of their words are backed up with actions. Not a single one of their members has ever threatened to leave the government if Netanyahu doesn’t make a deal to bring the hostages home. Their only threats are about exemption from the army and money for their partisan interests.

Due to all of the above, we remain in the horrendous position that one person and one person only has the power to bring the hostages home and that is Netanyahu. And we are also in the horrendous position that only one person has the power to force Netanyahu into a deal that will bring the hostages home and that is Trump. So, the big question is, will Trump do this? Trump made many election promises that he has not been able to fulfil. This is the one that he can if he is willing to step up and force Netanyahu’s hand. We all hope he will.

“I’ve never met them,
But I miss them.
I’ve never met them,
but I think of them every second.
I’ve never met them,
but they are my family.
BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”