Peace for Our time

I couldn’t help but compare our current situation to Edgar Allan Poe’s classic short story, The Pit and the Pendulum. The prisoner in the story is afraid of being sliced by the pendulum as it swings back and forth or falling into the pit. Like the pendulum, our expectations swing between two extremes: the complete destruction of Iran’s military, ballistic missile, and nuclear capabilities, and a negotiated settlement. We are afraid of falling into the pit of Iran remaining as it is with its ballistic and nuclear programs intact or even enhanced.

For those with a very short memory, at the end of February President Trump initiated an attack on Iran to destroy their ballistic and nuclear program. After about six weeks, he entered negotiations with Iran’s (supposed) leadership. The negotiations produced a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that was supposed to ensure the opening of the Strait of Hormuz dealing with and start negotiations on the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program.

After a few short weeks, the MoU was scrapped and the US began nightly bombings that lasted twelve days.

Trump said publicly that Iran lies and cheats. Everyone realized that the Iranian negotiators with whom the U.S. is dealing are not necessarily endorsed by the Islamic Republican Guard Corps (IRGC), which has emerged as the dominant force in Iran.

Late last week, after Iran launched a surprise missile strike that killed American service members, President Trump proclaimed: “US will ‘beat the f––– s–- out of them’.

However, only a few days later, on Saturday the President announced that he canceled the much-anticipated attack on Iran at the request of its allies, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar – in addition to Iran.

(As a side note, doesn’t Tucker Carlson et al claim that it is Israel that is telling President Trump what to do? How are these allies getting involved?)

Yesterday the President announced that negotiations are scheduled to resume today, Monday August 3.

This suggests a different scenario. About 90 years ago British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain publicly read the Munich Agreement document recently signed with German Chancellor Adolph Hitler, and declared “Peace for Our Time”. We all know how well Hitler upheld his end of that agreement. In Chamberlain’s defense, he could not yet fully appreciate the extent to which Hitler’s promises were worthless. We know today how that agreement ended.

President Trump knows, and even publicly declared, that the Iranian negotiators are liars and cheaters.

With whom is he intending to negotiate? The same liars and cheaters? Has anything changed? Is anything different? Why does the President feel that they have begun to be trustworthy and that the IRGC is now backing them and will uphold any agreement?