Post 12 Day War PTSD – Internalizing Victory
It has been several days since the 12-Day War with Iran ended. Just hours after the fighting ceased, we received the all-clear to return to our day to day lives. While the initial feeling was euphoric, I’ve also been emotionally numb. Did we really just finish a 12 Day War with Iran?
They say it takes time for our emotions to process what has happened. For 12 days we were hunkered down between salvos of ballistic missiles—each carrying 750kg warheads capable of wiping out part of a city block. Some did. We breathed our collective sigh of relief, largely in the middle of the night, but other hours also, as our building survived every salvo. Anyone who has visited certain sites in Greater Tel Aviv can attest to the destruction first-hand. Ten thousand Israelis are now homeless. Weizmann’s labs and a hospital building at Soroka were destroyed. Yet, we awoke to what is being called a historic victory.
In this light, both of my recent op-eds have proven accurate. The most recent, written in the midst of the war, predicted a historic victory—an assessment that now rings true. Tiny Israel, nearly alone, faced off against mighty Persia—a nation a hundred times larger geographically, with nearly ten times our population—and succeeded in destroying its top military echelon, decimating its nuclear infrastructure, and killing hundreds of IRGC operatives. A newly opened air corridor over Syria and Iraq yielded major strategic gains. In return, we did not lose a single airplane—only two UAVs. The sole Israeli soldier killed was off duty when a missile struck his mamad (reinforced security room). In terms of military casualties, the impact on Israel’s defense forces was minimal and unprecedented.
Twenty-eight Israeli civilians were killed by 550 ballistic missiles—a toll akin to a particularly brutal suicide bombing from the early 2000s.
Many commentators have claimed that the 12-Day War surpassed even the Six-Day War in brilliance. The lightning speed of its execution will undoubtedly be studied in military academies for years to come. Whatever its merits, one thing is clear: Iran’s nuclear program is no more. Though the genocidal regime remains intact. The war also brought on its toll of miraculous developments… hospital wards evacuated a day before, hits on buildings about to be demolished, IAF locating and destroying launchers primed for launch moments before…Yes, the term miraculous is fitting to be used as a descriptor.
The US contributed by deploying B-2 stealth bombers armed with the world’s most powerful non-nuclear weapon, the GBU-57A, to strike the Fordo facility. While evidence on whether it was fully destroyed remains mixed, even the Iranian Foreign Ministry has acknowledged “significant damage.” For a regime known for lying through its teeth, this likely indicates extensive destruction. Iran’s nuclear weapon—at least for the time being—is off the table, even though hundreds of kilograms of highly enriched uranium have suddenly “vanished” and must be urgently accounted for. Nevertheless, if disabling the nuclear industry was the primary objective, then the war achieved its aim.
This brings up my second op-ed. While the war was indeed historic, it was not a knockout blow. Iran’s political leadership remains intact. As of this writing, their ability to maintain control appears unshaken. Yes, the infamous Evin prison was bombed and a few regime targets were hit. Nevertheless, the regime will now likely entrench itself further and find ways to rebuild. Unlike Lebanon, Iran is 1,500 kms away and not as easily reached by IAF aircraft (even though definitely possible: a sustained bombing campaign for 12 days was most impressive and showed Israel’s capabilities). Unlike Lebanon, any future Israeli strike will likely be met with barrages of ballistic missiles that can level entire streets.
Unless a revolution rises from within Tehran, this conflict could easily shift into a generational prolonged war of attrition. As such, Mossad will likely need to continue playing a central role in intelligence building and undermining the Ayatollah regime from within. The immediate threat may be neutralized, but in the long term—without change—we could see a resumption of hostilities, or short bursts of hostilities including barrages of missiles. This time, Iran’s allies—Russia (busy in Ukraine), China (issuing only verbal condemnations), and Türkiye (preoccupied with its own interests)—stayed on the side-lines. That said, there’s no guarantee this will always be the case, particularly in the distant future. With American isolationism on the rise, future US involvement is uncertain. Their bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites stands as a historic achievement—but its permanence is not assured.
Then there is Gaza, yes Gaza. On the day after we were brutally reminded of its relevance: 7 soldiers died when Hamas attached an explosive to an APC. It violently shook us to the briefly forgotten reality that while we are performing miracles outside of Israel’s borders, Gaza remains very much a destructive stalemate. Little remains of the territory yet Hamas has outlasted their more powerful allies in their death match with Israel. A quick victory here is ideal with 20 living hostages still living in tunnel dungeons at the mercy of a terrorist group that never followed International Humanitarian Law.
Miracles are always welcome and hints aside of a brilliant endgame between Netanyahu and Trump, the stalemate remains.
Trump, with his tweets, still wields disproportionate global influence. To his credit, he coined the catchy “12-Day War” label and helped broker a ceasefire. He remains in power until 2028. Perhaps he was saved from an assassin’s bullet by divine intervention in Butler, PA. Whatever happens next, we are all ultimately under God’s guidance.
Meanwhile, antisemitism continues to rear its head. The next mayor of New York City may very well be a radical leftist, Twelver Shiite Muslim with sympathies toward Iran and Arab extremists. What the election of a Jew-hater as NYC mayor will do to the world’s largest diaspora community is yet to be seen but may trigger a massive wake up call to emigrate. Still, we can take some comfort in the fact that, for once, global anti-Israel rhetoric subsided during this last war. Iran, fortunately, is far less romanticized than Gaza.
Analysis ramblings aside, all of Israeli society has emerged from this war as veterans of crisis and miracles. Breathing fresh air after two weeks locked inside, we’ve come to cherish the little things. A beautiful day? Let’s go to the beach. An hour free? Let’s enjoy a meal. A friend we haven’t spoken to in a while? Let’s reconnect.
We know it might not last… or maybe it will. Trump and Netanyahu are teasing a “mega deal.” Wouldn’t we all want the “mega deal” to materialize…
During a Zoom event at Bar-Ilan University on the war’s final day, I offered a personal prayer: Beyond our spiritual pursuits, let us return to the mundane. May we enjoy earning a living. May we savor time with family and friends. Let us once again delight in the physical and simple joys of life. Before the 12-Day War was October 7th. Before October 7th was the Judicial Overhaul. Before the Judicial Overhaul, COVID. As one of my lecturers related to me the other day, we Israelis have stopped feeling normal and have gotten used to crises, the abnormal, and the miraculous. There was once a time when simply walking outside and being human was enough.
In the midst of this geopolitical volcano, we are exhausted. We are experiencing geopolitics fatigue. It’s time to refocus—on being human.
War is always just beyond the horizon. It may return next month, next year, or in a decade+. This being said, we are human and the appreciation of being human has never been more at the forefront. For now, we, as a society, are focusing on taking our collective breath. This time, may it last.
