President Trump, Please Get Off Your Seesaw
It seems that every week or two, President Trump starts a cycle of threatening Iran with a military attack, and then a deferment because he says they are making real progress on a deal. Then the cycle starts all over again, and he is insulted by Iran’s response and issues a new threat. This is hard on the public, the military, and neighboring countries. Following his encouragement with the diplomatic progress, the answer comes back with the same issues: not giving up the right to nuclear weapons and the US paying war reparations. I never knew that it was the right of every country to have nuclear weapons. In Iran that comes before the pursuit of happiness.
Through this up and down process, we seem to have forgotten the suffering of the repressed people of Iran and the threat of annihilation of Israel and some of its neighbors. The public has also abandoned the humanity aspect and is focusing on the economic effect, namely gasoline prices and related goods and services. We have had higher gas prices before, but I understand just like any form of inflation it becomes most difficult for those at the lowest income levels.
Public opinion in many countries other than Israel seems to be against the war with Iran. In general, no one wants war but gone are the days of saving humanity by encouraging the civilian population to rise up and overthrow the current regime. We forgot they have no weapons and are constantly threatened with imprisonment leading to death.
The seesaw movement of these threats is becoming too much like crying wolf. The public, the neighbors, and the enemies no longer believe it. Whether threatening bombing if the Straits of Hormuz are not opened, or total obliteration, no longer get the lead news story of the day. It’s just another day in the war of words, but President Trump does like to say the clock is ticking, which is the most accurate assessment of the situation, although more nostalgic since most clocks don’t tick anymore.
Of course, this up and down movement has a direct effect on Israel. Throughout this so-called exercise in poor diplomacy, one of the demands of Iran is to maintain a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah while Hezbollah continues to pound the north of Israel. Also, a major concern of Israel is the ability and distance capabilities of Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile and research. There has been no agreement on this point and little discussion throughout these sporadic negotiations. The meetings are also a perfect example of an exercise in futility. Even if they agree on the deal, how trustworthy can a country that threatens its own people be in honoring an agreement?
The longer the pattern of threats and reversals goes on, the more uncertainty it creates for allies and adversaries. Regardless of what the United States decides, Israel has different objectives in the outcome of the war, mainly preserving their ability to flourish. If Israel winds up at the top of the seesaw and the United States decides to get off and go home, I hope that Israel will have a soft landing.
