Prophecy was given to the fools

הנבואה ניתנה לשוטים

A Talmudic (Baba Batra 12b) phrase which stated that after the destruction of the Second Temple, divine insight moved from formal prophets to unexpected source, fools and children who often grasp simple, honest truths that others miss. It marks the loss of High Prophecy and reflects a belief that God became less directly involved in the world following the destruction of the Jewish Temple in Jerusalem by the Romans, leaving guidance to less mature or rational sources.

In modern Hebrew this statement just means that no one can predict the future despite millions of people in all walks of life trying to do so as a professional career. As knowledge is power, throughout history, humans have consistently invested significant resources in predicting all aspects of life from the weather to what is in the mind of the leader and doing so by every method possible from reading the stars, coffee beans to complex mathematical equations.

From my own experience as an equity analyst, you can build a sophisticated financial model, research the market, study the management team etc but there are endless external and internal factors that are very difficult to predict, even if you are on the inside, from sharp changes in public tastes and trends, breakthrough competitive technologies to a deeply hidden fraud. However, on the positive side, financial markets are generally considered relatively good predictors only because they react very quickly to changing circumstances.

What I am keen to highlight in this article the fact that predictions are not only difficult in normal circumstances, understanding the position of who is making them is crucial. The loathing of the Jews and the current US President Trump is blinding many in the media to the risks of a nuclear Iran. The role of the media is to be critical and defend the free world, but it should not put the free world at risk by doing so. Most people now consume their knowledge from limited sources that are in tune with their world view. Being critical should also be relevant towards your consumers as well, if they need to be educated. The war with Iran will not be won by the US or Israeli armies, it can only be resolved by the willpower of citizens in the West to endure short term pain for a long-term gain. Media outlets are focusing on the pain, dwelling on Trump’s mental state, PM Netanyahu’s fear of going to jail etc. They often lose any historical context to current events and previous generations that fought for our Western values. They just take these for granted and this is a very foolish and dangerous position to be in.

I have written before about the leadership vacuum in many Western democracies, the unwillingness to take unpopular decisions. Do we really want to waste this unique opportunity to get concessions from Iran? Iran’s regime is fractured and they are facing enormous financial pressures; a positive outcome should only be a matter of time. ‘Prophecy was given to the fools’, but taking action is the choice of the leaders. A shark that does not move sinks (or is eaten by other sharks). Iran is not North Korea; they clearly state that they hate our Western values (unless these relate to their own family members) and this fanatic ideology has been proven on October 7 in Israel. These weak leaders are defiantly not prophets, but they are fools nonetheless.

The case study in the UK is a screaming example, PM Starmer’s constant U-turns and willingness to sacrifice his “soldiers” for his personal survival have projected significant weakness. He may well live to fight longer than many predict, but governing without power is not leadership; it’s desperate survival at best. I am willing to play the fool and predict that, either way if he goes or replaced by an even more radical ‘tax and spend’ politician, the UK’s economy and global status will continue to deteriorate until the next elections which could be three years from now and, in my humble opinion, the financial markets have not fully reflected that risk yet.