Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, and the Future of the Hamas-Israel Conflict

The intense two years of fighting between Hamas and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) came to a halt with a ceasefire brokered by President Trump on October 9, signed by Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. The implications of these three signatories have not been fully appreciated.

Egypt’s involvement, as a key neighbor to both Israel and Gaza with a stable peace treaty established in 1979, lends important credibility to the agreement. Turkey’s participation represents a dramatic positive inflection point since during the war they took a clear-cut stance in support of Hamas and against Israel.

Qatar’s new change and role, while more nuanced, is also significant. Historically, even though it had been an ardent long term Hamas supporter, in a turnabout in November of 2023, long before the Trump ceasefire, it confusingly and constructively acted as a mediator, successfully facilitating the release of some Israeli hostages, bringing relief to many Israeli families. This positive role may have (deliberately) camouflaged its strong support of Hamas which included housing  Hamas leaders lavishly in Doha, funneling tens of millions of dollars into Hamas’s extensive military tunnel network used against Israel, funding Al Jazeera with its pro-Hamas and anti-Israel stance along with making substantial donations of millions of dollars  to leading American universities, presumably explaining some of the extreme rampant campus and administrative positions against Jews and Israel on many of their campuses.

Thus, the willingness of Qatar and Turkey to sign a ceasefire requiring Hamas to disarm and transition to a governance model replacing Hamas’s rule in Gaza with a transitional Palestinian Arab government marks a tectonic geopolitical turning point in the Hamas-Israel conflict. It leaves Hamas with only one significant supporter – Iran. Iran’s support for Hamas is one part of their imperialistic policy which also includes support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq.

The positive potential of this shift cannot be overstated. In its quest to destroy Israel, Hamas has diverted resources for military buildup that could have otherwise improved the lives of Gazans. Its declaration of all-out war has provided Israel with the justification to respond to Hamas’ aggression. Conversely, a Gaza governed by a leadership focused on its citizens’ welfare could transform the region into a prosperous entity, akin to modern-day Singapore. A Gazan regime that ceases to threaten or attack Israel would be spared the devastating repercussions of Hamas’s aggression. Both the enduring 50-year peace between Israel and Egypt, alongside Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, demonstrates that Israel has no interest in intervening in the affairs of neighboring governments that mind their own business.

Under President Trump, the current ceasefire represents a second step toward fostering a safer Middle East. The Abraham Accords, also mediated by Trump starting in 2020, normalized relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.

Hamas has made it abundantly clear that it is not prepared to disarm or relinquish control over Gaza. Unfortunately, as long as Hamas continues to receive support from others, it is unrealistic to expect the United States to effect this change on its own. Maintaining the ceasefire and progressing with the rest of the Trump plan requires not only persistent American efforts but also a significant shift within the Muslim world, wherein Hamas’s extremist ideology of destroying Israel is recognized as a liability that needs to be replaced by a policy of reconciliation. If countries like Turkey and Qatar predicate their support on Hamas’s disarmament and openness to governance by others, Iran could find itself as Hamas’s only major ally.  Since many Middle Eastern nations harbor growing resentment towards Iran’s hegemonic ambitions, not just in relation to Hamas and Israel, but also concerning Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, mobilizing pan-Arab opposition to Iranian influence could constrain Iran’s power and support for Hamas. Ultimately, without backing from its allies, Hamas may be compelled to reconsider its current position. Along with US pressure and Israeli support, the ceasefire plan can only succeed if support for Hamas by its major allies is curtailed.