Reading the polls

The recent joint poll (PSR & TAU) published by Times of Israel regarding the war in Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be useful for many purposes. After all, numbers are always true and useful; but it is the narrative that counts in the end. (https://pcpsr.org/en/node/989)

When I first read the poll it immediately brought to mind the concept of a stolen or borrowed narrative: from the Jewish people to the Palestinians. This thesis is not new, but it is still actual.

It also brought to mind the metaphor of a mirror: as we, Israelis/Jews, look into it, Palestinians are looking from the other side. In other words, we are looking at each other, whether we want or not.

The parity of the numbers does not allow for any misunderstanding: 66% to 61% regarding the other’s intention is hardly a difference. What is rather shocking is that Palestinians believe Israelis really want to ‘commit genocide against us’, when in fact, in spite of abuse, limited unfortunate incidents, and the consequences of occupation in general, Israel has never conducted a policy of genocide against any people. On the contrary: twenty years after the 2^nd Intifada, on October 7^th, when given the chance, Palestinians did not intend to occupy or recover land but, without hesitation, their goal was to exterminate Jewish Israelis.

Let us then define genocide: violence that targets individuals because of their membership of a group and aims at the destruction of a people (Wikipedia). Israel targets Palestinians and terror groups like Hamas specifically, as enemy, not because of being part of a people. Palestinian terror groups target Israelis for their claim as a people. The perception on the Israeli side is explained by the October 7 attack, for instance; the perception on the Palestinian side is a fabrication, going back to the Mufti’s relationship with Hitler and the Nazi regime.

Therefore, indeed, numbers match, but what lies behind or beyond them is not equivalent.

However, one must admit that, read in a positive attitude, the numbers offered by the poll could help: the almost identical perception as victims could lead to some kind of mutual empathy; it can also reveal the deep, mutual fear, a barrier hard to overcome by whatever diplomatic engineering; and it can also lead to the almost obvious conclusion that peoples prefer peace to war.

The poll shows a clear rejection by both sides today of a peace plan as offered in 2018: 63% of Palestinians, 65% of Israeli Jews, and 13% of Israeli Arabs are opposed to the two-state comprehensive package by itself. However, although most Israelis and Palestinians believe the war will escalate, both would prefer to see a peace alternative framed in a larger regional agreement. That is because the level of mutual distrust is huge: only 10% of Israeli Jews and 6% of Palestinians agree that it is possible to trust the other side.

Here comes a second metaphor, borrowed from Lewis Carroll in ‘Alice in Wonderland’: the looking glass as a journey into another world. While Israelis and Palestinians are mutually reflected on the imaginary mirror, as the numbers show, the mirror can also represent a journey into an unexplored, unexpected world. A world of dangers, a world of opportunity, but mostly a world of experiences. After all, Alice’s falling into the looking glass is an inner journey.

The challenge, should both sides agree on it, is to journey in parallel paths. The numbers who show hated and mistrust could very well turn, in a couple of generations, into acceptance and confidence in a future together.

The poll concludes with a glimpse of hope: paired incentives for an agreement, especially those mutually conceded, could very well change the words we ascribe to the numbers. As all narratives, it all depends on the storytellers.