Reflections and Projections: The Jewish Vote and the 2024 Campaign

As we move within two weeks of this election, we are likely to see the last efforts by both parties to reframe their messages and target segments of the voting public, while seeking to maximize their political positions.

Where Does this Election Leave America’s Jews?

There have been numerous press reports, television and pod cast stories, and newspaper opinion and editorial pieces addressing the “Jewish vote” in 2024.

There are some overarching themes associated with the 2024 Jewish vote:

• Israel and anti-Semitism are more defining factors for Jews this year than in any of the past several elections. For some Jews, Israel has become a problematic issue but for most American Jews the case for Israel has galvanized their support and involvement.
• The rise and influence of the Progressive Left is having an impact on traditional Jewish Democratic voters. Again, for many Democrats this has created a level of concern, while for others who identify with the “progressive” agenda, there is a strong alignment with this political camp.
• Donald Trump’s messaging during this campaign directed toward Jews has drawn some folks to him, while distancing others from him, as some Jewish Republicans elect to stay away from 45.
• This election will confirm the growing importance and presence of America’s Orthodox Jewish community as a key political force. It will further contribute to exposing the deep fissures within the Jewish community over Israel and American politics.

What We are Leaning:

 As more Jews intermarry, assimilate, and generationally are further removed from the founding of the Jewish State and a direct connection with the Shoah, we are seeing some shifts in voting behavior, where Jews are less tied to traditional liberal ideas or specific Jewish values. These patterns are becoming more pronounced with each election cycle and will likely lead to the narrowing of the conversation around “the Jewish vote” as we move to multiple types or shades of Jewish identity and connection. These new demographic realities will generate a conversation on whether there will be a “Jewish vote” moving forward.

 Correspondingly, as American politics move forward, we will note  greater attention to the American Muslim community as it both grows in numbers and in influence, increasingly challenging the Jewish community’s standing on US-Israel relations.

 Polls and the Jewish Vote:

We need to remind ourselves that polling among Jewish voters often brings out organizations with a specific political agenda, as a result various studies conducted over these past several months of Jewish voters tend to reflect the biases of the sponsoring groups. There have been a number of Jewish polls conducted by both Democratic-leaning groups and Republican-based organizations.

The Pew study notes a decline among Jewish voters for the Vice President, yet among the three major religious groupings in this nation, Jews lean “Democratic” supporting Vice President Harris, while a majority of Protestants and Catholics favor Donald Trump. This early September poll places the Jewish vote as 68% (Harris) to 34% (Trump)

Other studies point to some policy issues of concern to American Jews.

A Pew report of September 9^th noted the following comparisons amongst religious groups. Jews place more weight on the appointment of Supreme Court justices than any other religious group (77% of Jews rank this issue as of high importance). Of “high” importance to Jewish voters are such issues as foreign policy (72%) and abortion (59%), in each of these areas, Jews rank the highest among religious group voters.

Contrastingly, Jews are amongst the lowest of religious-based voters to be concerned about violent crime (49%), immigration (45%), and economic concerns (72%), although this latter issue ranks high for all religiously-affiliated Americans.

What are the Polls Missing?

 The “silent” voters are those folks who have not declared themselves publicly to pollsters or even their friends.

The “undecided” voters account for the last set of votes to be claimed. We believe no more than 5% of voters fall into this category at this point.  One data point that we have been covering the past month is that Vice President Harris has picked up some 60% of this undecided bloc of voters.

Voter Turn-out:

 The key to who wins this election will be voter turn-out and which party is best able to energize its base! Political observers note a degree of “voter fatigue” and an element of unhappiness over the presidential choices that might keep down the record numbers from 2020, but one should expect that the issues may drive these reluctant voters in the end to show up.

As with other Americans, those Jews less likely to vote this year involve younger voters, where turn out is traditionally lower.  Some seniors who may be too ill or impaired to vote, and those folks who are in transition, moving from one state to another and may not qualify yet to vote in their new home community. Otherwise, we should see a relatively high Jewish voter turn-out, projected to be about 85%, confirming that Jews vote in higher numbers than any other ethnic or racial community.

The Swing States Marathon

 Everyone is conceding that this election will be totally dependent on the seven swing (“Bagel Belt”) states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). As we have previously noted, Pennsylvania with its 300,000 Jews, who account for about 2.7% of that state’s voters, have been and will continue to be until election day among the most targeted voters in the country.

Closing Thoughts:

 November 5^th is more than just another presidential contest, as voters on both sides see this election as representing for them and their party questions about the future of this nation’s democracy and political direction.

No doubt, the winner will be able to redefine the course and conduct of this country’s future. For the losing party, this will result in a fundamental transformation of its leadership and direction. This will result as well in a generational shift as both parties focus on reaching the next tier of political leadership.

With two weeks to go, we can expect to see the expenditure of energy and resources by the two campaigns to represent the most intense political engagement in modern memory, as this election is likely to be the most expensive and media-driven in history.

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P.S: This is the twelfth article released over the course of this past year dealing with the 2024 election and the Jewish vote.