Regional Shifts and Implications for Israel

The recent surprise attack by Sunni rebels in Aleppo is deeply tied to the shifting dynamics in the region following the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. These rebels, primarily supported by Turkey, have taken advantage of the weakened state of the Assad regime and its allies, notably Hezbollah and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Over the past few months, Hezbollah has redirected much of its focus to its conflict with Israel, leaving its ground forces stretched and unable to assist the Assad regime effectively. Meanwhile, repeated Israeli airstrikes on Iranian supply routes and Shiite militia positions in Syria have disrupted the logistics networks supporting Hezbollah, further weakening the pro-Assad forces.

This fragility presented an opportunity for Turkey and the Sunni rebels in Idlib. United under Turkish support, the rebels launched an offensive against the Assad regime in Aleppo, Syria’s economic and military-industrial hub. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, known for his strong Sunni Islamist stance, has provided arms and strategic support to the rebels, seemingly prioritizing religious motivations over long-term national security interests. For Erdoğan, Damascus’ vulnerabilities and Hezbollah’s preoccupation with Lebanon presented a strategic opening to push back against Assad.

From Israel’s perspective, the attack has mixed implications. In the immediate term, the Sunni offensive has weakened Assad’s regime, which remains heavily reliant on Iranian and Shiite militia support. Assad is likely to tread cautiously, as a military confrontation with Israel could lead to further debilitating strikes on his already fragile military infrastructure. This dynamic benefits Israel, as it pressures Assad to limit his cooperation with Iran and curtails the scale of military assistance flowing to Hezbollah through Syrian territory.

However, Israel must also weigh the long-term risks. The resurgence of Sunni insurgents could introduce a new jihadist threat near its borders, akin to the challenges posed by groups like Hamas. If Assad’s regime were to collapse, it could create a power vacuum in Syria, allowing Sunni extremists to gain control and potentially destabilize the region further.

Additionally, geopolitical factors add layers of complexity. Russia, Assad’s primary backer, has limited capacity to intervene more robustly due to its engagement in Ukraine. Moscow’s priority is to stabilize Syria to secure reconstruction contracts, making further escalations with Israel counterproductive to its interests. Meanwhile, Assad’s balancing act—maintaining ties with Iran while avoiding excessive provocation of Israel—reflects his focus on regime survival.

For Israel, vigilance remains crucial. The weakening of Assad, Iran, and Hezbollah in the short term is advantageous, but the possibility of a Sunni jihadist threat emerging from a destabilized Syria looms large. Strategically, Israel must prepare for this potential shift while continuing to monitor the evolving dynamics of its northeastern frontier.