Relying on Trump is a Dangerous Gamble
Israel today doesn’t have a foreign policy – it has a gamble.
Key Western allies – including Germany, Britain, France, and Italy – are speaking out with increasing force, and warnings of real consequences, over our government’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank. It’s not just governments: polls show public opinion in each of these countries – and in the United States – is turning against Israel as the horrors of Gaza and settler violence are beamed to millions of appalled citizens.
But rather than grapple with any of that, Israeli foreign policy focuses on complete reliance on one figure: Donald Trump. An unpredictable leader who’s already proven how easily he can turn his back on key allies like Ukraine, Canada, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and others. From trade wars to real wars, there’s no long-term certainty. That goes for us, too, the moment he loses interest.
The horror show in Gaza, which Israeli media barely shows to domestic audiences, is creating a tide against Israel, both in public opinion and among leaders around the world. The Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, accused Israel of genocide. Even more moderate leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and others are gradually increasing their criticism of Israel’s actions. They are not doing this out of hatred for Israel or antisemitism; on the contrary, they hold deep concerns for our future if we continue down this path.
First come the words of warning, then come the consequences. Authorities in several countries have blocked weapons transfers over concerns of human rights violations. Western countries, including Canada, the UK, and Australia, have imposed sanctions on extremist government ministers. Our cooperation agreement with the EU is at immediate risk. It turns out that the friendship and value-based partnership between the two emerging dictators, Netanyahu and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, are not enough to save Israel from consequences – and more will no doubt follow soon.
In response, the Israeli government goes on the offensive. Instead of addressing President Macron’s legitimate criticism, Foreign Minister Gidon Sa’ar chooses to attack France’s colonial past. Instead of trying to improve relations with Ireland, the government decides to close the embassy in Dublin, a move that mainly harms Israel and its citizens.
And in the meantime, even within the United States itself, Israel’s standing is eroding. A Pew Research Center survey from last April shows that 53% of Americans hold a negative view of Israel, including 67% of Democratic Party voters, who no longer identify Netanyahu’s Israel with the moral ally they have supported all these years. Even 50% of young Republicans (and 37% of all party voters) no longer support Israel’s policies. Even in Trump’s party, Netanyahu’s Israel is losing its grip, not only among the isolationists but also among young evangelical Christians.
After years of Netanyahu undermining Democratic presidents and openly aligning with Republicans, the bipartisan consensus on Israel in Washington was lost. That includes increasing alienation from American Jews. The age-old talking point of shared values and shared democratic foundations is looking increasingly out of date. The pluralistic Israel supported by the previous generation of leaders, Republicans and mostly Democrats, has steadily become unrecognizable. Now, Israel is increasingly dependent on the whims of one person. Not of a party, not even of an administration, but of one person who tends to change his opinions almost daily.
In contrast to the values-driven connection, Trump’s support comes from personal interest. The moment he realizes that his support for Israel, or more accurately for Netanyahu, no longer serves him personally or politically, it will be all too easy for him to cast us by the wayside and move on. This is, after all, what a significant portion of his supporters, the MAGA separatists, are calling for.
Netanyahu and Dermer may have managed to get Trump to send planes to bomb the Fordow nuclear enrichment site in Iran and convinced him of the fantasy of total victory in Gaza. Netanyahu even managed to get Trump to call for Israeli legal authorities to cancel his trial, but the gamble may not pay off forever. When he decides he’s had enough, there will be no one else for Netanyahu to lean on.
What’s an alternative strategy? Well, it can start with paying heed to what the majority of Israelis and our international allies are calling for: genuinely pursuing a war-ending hostage deal in Gaza and creating the “day after” to rebuild Gaza without Hamas, led by Arab partners and moderate Palestinian leaders. That’s how we get our hostages home, defeat terror long-term, and begin to repair our standing abroad.
As military officials continue to advise, there is little left that war can accomplish in Gaza. Returning to the path of diplomacy is the only way to achieve our national security goals. We badly need a foreign policy that is based on partnership, dialogue, and shared democratic values with Western countries and regional neighbors who are willing to engage in a historic partnership with Israel, conditioned on a credible political horizon for the Palestinians.
The other path, joining rogue countries that try to find an alternative to the West in the authoritarian “BRICS” bloc led by Russia and China, is not one we should or can follow. It’s a decision to lock ourselves in with autocracies instead of democracies. And given the esteem in which we are held in the global south, we are not a welcome partner there.
Leaders who are putting all of our hopes on a single narcissist, seeking to lead Israel towards a future of internal dictatorship and eternal war, are condemning us all to international isolation and democratic decline. Our founding values and the Zionist vision of being a beacon among nations are being betrayed.