Seems like there’s no turning back now

The situation in the Middle East is worsening at an alarming rate. I know that the Middle East is, for lack of a better word, in a state of permanent crisis, but it sure feels different this time. Regional war level different. Is it inevitable? I don’t know. As Israeli Prime Minister said, ”There are challenging days ahead.” All will be revealed where this conflict is going likely in the coming days.

I don’t know about all the cultural complexities of the region but it seems to me that Iran has been humiliated. Big time. I’d even use the word emasculated. Iran has already attacked Israel once. The second strike is surely going to be much more powerful. Such a brazen kill on Iranian soil must have made the regime furious. And when you’re furious, when you need to protect your misguided pride, rationality often goes out the window and you lash out not so much because you have to but because you want to restore your dignity. Now, it doesn’t mean there’s going to be missiles or drones raining down on Tel Aviv. It could be an assassination attempt of an Israeli VIP by striking a government compound or some other building linked to the government or the military. Why? It would send an even more powerful message than missiles causing minimal damage. Yes, missile barrages look impressive but they won’t demoralize Israelis. A surgical strike will. And it’s also going to cause chaos and more instability in Israel. It’s going to show how weak the government is.

Then again, I’m just thinking out loud without knowing much about the local culture. If I were Iranian regime officials, I’d think as follows: ”They struck us on our own soil, eliminated a VIP and our ”dear friend” so brazenly, we’ll show them we can do the same thing.”

In light of all this, I don’t believe Iran is bluffing. Iran just can’t afford bluffing this time. Its reputation is at stake more than ever before. Diplomacy won’t solve it. Too little, too late.