There is a problem with my memory. It’s excellent. That’s not always easy for people who count on us forgetting. I remember that in 2015, top pollster Mina Tzemach completely wrongly predicted the outcome of the national elections, also blaming the voters and not her lack of professionalism. Just like now.
I must admit that the disaster then was so big that I assumed we would never hear from her again. But no, she’s still doing the same stuff with the same results as if she’s excellent at what she does.
Now she claims that Likud voters lied to her. Poor thing. But really, she underestimated the Likud in 2015 also by many Knesset seats. You don’t blame the voters–you correct accordingly. The rightwing always lies to pollsters. That’s how Trump and Brexit won “by surprise.”
Besides, almost all polls that I read about this 2019 election circus were absurdly unprofessional. A margin of insecurity of 4% with half a dozen political parties being predicted to score around the electoral threshold of 3.25%. That means that these polls could not predict if half a dozen parties would each receive 4 or 0 seats. Ridiculous. Not that “experts” will tell you.
I don’t know why the media and the public accept this kind of bad work. I don’t know if it’s stinginess from those who commissioned them, that they don’t want to pay for larger polls. But a professional pollster needs to say: for such money I can’t do anything that I could be proud of.
When will the public revolt against this shoddy work? When it gets a memory, probably.
BTW, what a blunder by Bibi to go after the voters of the small rightwing parties, just before the elections. He may have gained one or two seats, or maybe none. But he killed the New Right (four seats). His prospective coalition could have been so big that he wouldn’t have to arm-wrestle everyone so hard. He could say to each party, you don’t want in — I can do without you. Now he can’t. If I were him, I would join the New Right in requesting a recount.