Shifting Sands: The Overthrow of Assad and Its Implications for Israel

KAN 11 Report stating “After 54 years: the Assad Regime Falls” (KAN 11)

Hezbollah is probably no longer declaring victory.

In a historic blitzkrieg across Syria, the rebels have toppled the 54-year Assad regime in just 11 days. Notably, it was 12 days ago that Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah. While some questioned the rationale for a ceasefire, certain secret interests likely influenced the timing.

One of the main victors, aside from Sunni Muslim Syrians, is Israel. Not only did Israel recently decimate Hezbollah, forcing it into a ceasefire, but now one of Hezbollah’s primary backers, resupply routes, and partners has been swiftly overthrown.

Today, the Middle East wakes up to a new reality where Iran is suddenly 1,500 km further from Israel’s borders. The “ring of fire” surrounding Israel has become significantly less substantial. For now, we can breathe a sigh of relief as Iran’s grip on the region has suffered a massive strategic blow.

The above being apparent, when Israeli intelligence claimed that Assad’s overthrow was a surprise this morning, they were either master poker players or entirely disconnected from the events around them. For years, Israel has actively targeted Iranian and Hezbollah assets in Syria, striking  thousands of targets by its own admission. With Russia weakened by its exhaustive war in Ukraine, does the swift overthrow of Assad truly surprise anyone in the Middle East?

So, is the enemy of my enemy my friend?

As the dust settles, a new reality will emerge in the Middle East. Following the October 7th War, Iranian interests have suffered a significant setback, with their opponents filling the void.

However, it’s important to note that anti-Iranian interests do not translate to a peace treaty between Syria and Israel. A major player in the Sunni insurgency, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is an offshoot of Al Qaeda—a sworn enemy of both Israel and the West. While its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Golani, has made overtures to Israel and the West, its mosques praised Hamas after the October 7th attacks. Mass celebrations also erupted after Israel’s operations against Hezbollah. Thus, while some may discreetly commend Israeli actions, they remain ideologically opposed to its existence.

Regional Implications

A significant regional player behind the lightning offensive is Türkiye. Its leader, President Erdogan, whose country supports various rebel factions in Idlib, praised the offensive while raising concerns about terrorist elements. “I would say we hope for this advance to continue without any issues,” Erdogan said on Friday, according to Reuters. “The target is Damascus.”

If the new government in Syria adopts a Sunni Islamist ideology, it would align well with Türkiye’s agenda. It remains to be seen whether a “Free” Syria will ally with Türkiye, which has previously threatened military action against Israel amid the Gaza War. “Just as we entered [Nagorno-Karabakh], just as we entered Libya, we might do the same to them. There is nothing we can’t do. We must only be strong,” Erdogan declared in July.

Much also depends on developments within Israel. Before the October 7th War, Israel was on the verge of a historic peace treaty with Saudi Arabia, which has since been derailed. Meanwhile, the U.S. has constrained Israel’s actions, likely under the threat of United Nations Security Council sanctions or an arms embargo if certain lines were crossed. This has prolonged the Gaza conflict to the frustration of both Gazans and hostages.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has also issued stark warnings to Hamas regarding the hostages. “If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date I assume office, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East for those responsible,” Trump wrote.

This pressure may lead to a partial hostage deal or increased latitude for Israel in Gaza. The ongoing Gaza conflict is a burden for the Israeli public, who seek resolution, and a distraction from the broader strategic challenge of Iran, which approaches nuclear capability.

The Syrian takeover adds urgency for Israel and President-elect Trump to resolve the Gaza issue decisively, paving the way for a strategic alignment between Israel and Sunni Muslim states—potentially including a rebel-led Syria if extremists do not dominate the new government.

For skeptics, the Middle East has already seen an example of Sunni fundamentalists taking over an Arab state: Mohammed Morsi’s government in Egypt after the Arab Spring in 2011. Despite its Islamist outlook, it maintained peace with Israel without triggering a domino effect. One can hope that pragmatic forces within Syria will adopt a similar approach in the long term.

The temporary winner of events in Syria is Israel, while the clear loser is Iran. The future, however, remains uncertain.