Barry Lynn
Intersection of Science and Policy

Snow in the air — will it stick?

Weather It Is High Resolution Snow Forecast for Thursday Morning

Our latest highest resolution forecast suggests that 5 to 10 cm should accumulate in higher elevations around the Jerusalem center, with 20 to 30 centimeters in Gush Etzion.  A slushy accumulation is expected in the city center. During periods of heavy snow, expect blizzard conditions.

Our high resolution ensemble forecast shows that accumulations might range from a few centimeters of slush to 10 centimeters in the Jerusalem city area itself.  Yet, snow should fall very hard during the night, regardless of how much snow accumulates, so the roads will be very slippery (and probably closed). Amounts in Gush Etzion could exceed 25 centimeters.

As is typical with all of our potential snowstorms, the Jerusalem area is right on the edge, temperature wise.  We run the forecast ensemble to see how small differences in temperatures at the surface and in the upper atmosphere might affect snow accumulation.  Yet, this ensemble doesn’t resolve the topography as well as the highest resolution model, so both minimum and maximum amounts could be underestimated in temperature sensitive areas.

Hence, as we go into tonight, and the country is affected by a major winter storm (flooding rains, thunder and lightning, hail, and Gale or even Severe Gale Winds), we remain uncertain about how much snow will actually fall at the Western Wall or Kotel.

The precipitation should continue tomorrow morning, with additional slushy accumulation of snow in the normally colder elevated locations.

Stay safe, and plan to be in a safe place, like home, before evening hours.

About the Author
Dr. Barry Lynn has a PhD in Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences. He has an undergraduate degree in Biology. He is a researcher/lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and is the CTO of Weather It Is, LTD, a weather forecasting and consulting company.
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